Thursday, July 2, 2009

Trading List Final Update for Week of 6/29/09

Final Thoughts/Results for the Week:

APA High $73.81 Low $68.59 Last $69.34
Totally missed this short Thursday. It should've triggered at $70 if I entered the trade, but didn't. Gave nearly a 1.5 points on short side to the astute. Intraday plays were good for a couple this week.
APOL High $72.50 Low $67.77 Last $68.74
Triggered short in the end and holding weekend although this is more of a teetottering hold. May regrett this one.
BAC High $13.48 Low $12.52 Last $12.62
Definitely looking like the $12 before the $14. Not holding nor did I enter. Maybe next week
BIDU High $305.80 Low $287.80 Last $289.50
This watch may turn to our advantage for next week. So far the pattern is holding.
MUR High $55.75 Low $51.85 Last $51.70
Due to extra minutes after hours in NYSE the last is lower. I stated on Twitter earlier,that I cannot take credit for this short as I did not post a newer entry but I was wrong, I did post the short below $53 on Monday to retest the $52-$50. Of course if I updated my blog for it before open, you may have shorted below the $55 this morning especially after it failed the long yesterday, if you did in either case, kudos to you!
PBR High $42.19 Low $38.79 Last $39.00
After a small loss yesterday, it payed off today with the short.
POT High $97.48 Low $89.13 Last $95.70
Continues to oscillate but this week it's a higher high & low from last week. Posted gains both long and short on this. Crucial resistances and supports need to be watched going forward.
SOHU High $68.00 Low $60.12 Last $60.61
Tough player this week and not hitting long target, but as stated it has challenges, and it paid to the shortside more. Today, Gapping down it is testing the double bottom on the weekly.
VNO High $46.21 Low $42.71 Last $42.48
Again the last is due to NYSE being open extra minutes after regular hours. Still playing in the channel, it remains to be seen if it will break it next week. Seeing that it broke down through the 200dma today, it is possible; but let's consentrate on the $42 first. One of 2 that I'm holding over.
XME High $38.63 Low $35.73 Last $36.01
Triggered short yesterday near close, and it has paid perfectly on Thursday for the 2nd time this week. I like that is has broken the 50dma.

Careful planning and holding panic at bay helps to make profits possible and what made this week for us. It is not to say things are rosy, as clearly they are not, but hopefully we keep our heads and keep just watching what is and not what we think it should be. I have a lot more thoughts about this week but I will save it for later as I need to break away from the business of trading for a few days.

Have a very Happy 4th of July (47) and take care of your loved ones.

Happy Trading, Dancing and Living
As ever,


7/2 Midday Update: $PBR near target @38.50 being a dbl bottom on the daily at the 38.50-38.62, caution to the upside; POT 2nd target hit @$97 now watching that $97.50 for further upside; as stated, needs to break&hold the 97.50 for $100 target; $XME $36 target hit 50dma is @$36.46 for stop above; next target $35.30 needs to break below 35.90 next target $35.30 needs to break below 35.90; on a pattern watch; $MUR Not having posted a trigger for the downside, I can't take credit here, it has retested the $54 as stated, &failed it. $BIDU did not breakdown too much so the pattern still holds 4now. Not in a trade here. $VNO needs to breakdown 42.60 for further drop;


7/1 Update: More of the same and very slow day for me today. I'm not saying there are no trades to find out there because there are ..some, but is it worth it? I decided not, and am getting ready for a long weekend instead. We are currently in a short position on XME triggering at $37.39 will see if it drops below the 36.80 in the morning again to test the lows, if not stop is at b/e. MUR triggered a long at open which lasted a few minutes but fell short of the $56, exit was with a small gain. PBR peeked above the 42 but could not hold for a small loss. BAC, APOL, POT closed near a short trigger. BIDU is still on the pattern watch. No other updates but well check in the morning for opportunities and continue to trade carefully. I doubt there'll be much action after lunch as traditionally, traders will leave early for the weekend. Have a great & safe 4th of July weekend.


6/30 Update: Continuing the slow week which will become even slower as we grind on until Friday. What concerns me is that there isn't any attention paid to what is going on in the USA vs the dollar in the world. The dollar is being used less as the currency of faith for trade by increasingly more countries. Hungary has more sense than our government regarding stimulating the economy: they're reducing the income and corporate taxes along with capital gains taxes. But in the USA, we only hear about Michael Jackson's death and funeral? The disconnect has me worried more and more going forward; but we trade on without emotion and act only when the market gives us opportunity. Today there were several XME triggered short at 37.39 and declined to 36.55. SOHU triggered short below $64 ($63.90) and gave a point plus return to target at $62.33. MUR stays sideways; APA did a nosedive this morning giving 2 points and it's still trading within the daytrade range. VNO getting tighter trading within just a point range today; no change on the call since Monday here. POT pushed higher from the open at $93.51 to give a poing and change upside, then reversed for a 2 point drop to low of day; then it remained roughly within a point range the rest of the day. Of the new additions, PBR triggered at $41 and dropped $.50 before returning to start, will keep an eye on this; APOL entering a trade prior to open, reached the target shortly there after, but failed at filling the gap by topping at $72.50. BAC is facing it's challenges well but I would not bet on either way until it washes out; that 200 day is a tight cap but then so is the support. BIDU the pattern is evolving no changes to original thoughts; don't want to jump this gun it could be deadly. OK then keep Practicing Patience.

* 6/30 PBR Looks like either heading higher or forming a shoulder here. Long above 42.05 to $44 area. Short below $41 target $38.50 area
* 6/30 BAC facing a challenge at 13 .52 break above could lead to $15 again, but below is a $12 if it reverses. Not an easy one to trade as too many in it now.
* 6/30 04:00 POT same play but it needs to break above the $97.50 for the $100. Short below $93
* 6/30 APOL Beat earnings and tested $70 after hours closing at $69.35 Long open, stop $68 target $72. Both volume and momentum are based on earnings and strength may not go forward to fill the gap. Short below $68 to $66
* 6/30 03:41PT BIDU interesting repeating pattern has me thinking higher; but holiday week is a factor in volume/momentum. It will be interesting to see if pattern plays out. breaking above the $310 will indicate a go. Until then, only intraday plays best. Break above $310 for long, break below $280 breaks pattern


* 6/29 Update: It's a slow week, all holiday weeks are but this being midsummer, end of quarter and 4th of July, we can't expect much. BIDU had trouble with the 306; MUR didn't get the "umph" to get to 56; APA was like a bump on a log and didn't want to move much; SOHU hit 68 then reversed due to being Japanese, decided to retest toward 64 but did not quite get there before it took off the last 15min; XME triggered then decided it liked the channel; VNO held vigil within the 44; but POT delivered to target 95 then mid 96 early before keeping it tight again. You have to practice patience on days like this.

* 6/29 04:00 APA Can be played as a daytrade between the $74-$71 levels, the call is short below $72 to $71 and above $72.70 to about $73.50. Beyond that, for other moves, I see APA in a channel between $70-$75 areas. Short below $70 to $68 $65 areas, Long above $75 to $79, $80 areas.
* 6/29 05:27 BIDU to $310 retest long above 302 stop 298
* 6/29 03:00 MUR Needs to pop above the $55 in order to go long. Currently calling short here below the trend-line at $53 to retest $52 and $50. Longer looking above $55 for a possible point but failing to pass $56 will again retest the $54 area
* 6/29 03:00 POT Is getting tighter. Watching for it to make a decision, I think it needs to retest the mid $80s on the downside and it will need to pass the $100 to be able to push higher. For now the short side is below $90 to 87 area then to $85, $82 and $80. The Long side above $93.86 to $95 then $97 area.
* 6/29 03:00 SOHU Very nice breakout of channel last week, watch $68.30 area with break above target near $70. SOHU looks to be on its way to filling a cup to the $78 area, but there will be challenges toward that quest. So I remain cautious in targets, as there's a strong possibility to retest the $64 here.
* 6/29 04:00 VNO Channel tighter as it's forming a wedge. Current channel is $44-$42 but it's peeking above the $44 now perhapts to break higher.. but it needs to test a crucial $46 to perhaps give it momentum. Its slightly oversold stance may give it just that. Right now, we'll keep watch. Long above $46 to 47 areas, Short below $44 to revisit $42, stop $44.60.
* 6/29 03:00 XME Looking like a right shoulder formation here: Short below 37.39 target $36 to $34 then $32 areas stop $39.10 Long above $39.70 to $41, then to mid $42. areas. Stop $39.10