Monday, September 28, 2009

Some Words of Wisdom

You want some words of trading wisdom?
Here it is: Don't believe anything.

That's it.

What? You want to know why?

Well for one, there's no answer to the question: "why?"
There's just "is".
Now, you can believe in "is", right?



Now, go have a great day! ;)

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing,

Sunday, September 27, 2009

Week of 09/21/2009 Results & Archive

Results & Targets 09/25/2009:
$APA bounced 90.50 Long $92.20 / $ANR remainder shares $34.50/ $BIDU short target hit $385, 383.14/ $HPQ breakout did not confirm, no entry. I like the 15 min chart for Monday/ $MA Short target hit $210, exceeded to $204.06 all covered at 204.90

Posted 05:00 PT 09/25/09
$BIDU long above $389 to about $391, 395 braking above $396 to about $399-$400 / Short below $387 to about $385, $382, $380 and test $376 area, breaking below to abouve $369 -$352 possible
$APA I like to see it bounce off the $90 area; Short below $89.50 to about $88
HPQ long above $47 to 48-49

Results & Targets 09/24/20009:
$ABT trig $46.30 Long $47/ $ANR Short $35.20/ $BIDU Trig $396 short targets $390, $387, $385, $380 hit & exceeded to 376.30./ $FSLR trig 153 Short $151.50, $147.14 hit/ $MA Short $213.13 low/ $OIH trig $116 short $113.90/ $VNO trig $66 short $63.74/ $WYNN Trig $70 short $68 hit/

@Market Close Kept some $MA, $ANR short

No New Calls Made

Results & Targets 09/23/2009:
$ANR 37.20 / $ BCSI from Monday $22.70 / $MA Short $219.14 / $WYNN Long $74.90

@Market Close: Kept some ANR & MA short

Posted 09/23/2009 06:30PT:
$ANR above $40 to about $42. Short below $38 to about $36.70
$BCSI which was Monday's call keeps performing
$BIDU is sideways looking for that next formation. It's tough to call here.
$FSLR long above $158 again to about $162-$163 watch for higher breakout during good conditions
$FCX I like. but needs to break above $75 for potential of $80 in the long run, very tight range in past few days
$MA same call as yesterday.. didn't move much
I love WYNN' s chart but market has to cooperate
$WYNN above $74 to about $76-77 Short below 70 to about $68
Sorry, I've been up all night writing.. will post a few picks later 7/23/09

Results & Targets 09/22/2009:
$AIG Long premkt $54.20 / $BIDU Short $395 / $FSLR Long $163 / $OIH Long $120.50 / $TDS Long $31.60 /$VNO Long $69.48

Posted 09/22/2009 03:55 PT:
$AIG Long to $49-$50, $52, $55 Short below Short below $43 to about $40
$BIDU Long above $401, $401.50 to about $404, $407, $409. Short below $396 to about $394, $391, $389 breaking lower to $385, $380 areas
$ELOS Long to near $13 watch for reversal as it's getting heady. Short below $11.50 to about 10.75
$FSLR Long to about $159 then break above signals to about $163. Short below 151.50 to about $143
$MA abouve $226 to about $229, Short below Short below $221 to about $219, $217, $215and as low as $210
$TDS continue to about $32 swing from yesterday
$VNO Short below $66 to about $63 Long above $68 to about $70 area then on break out to near $75

Results & Targets 09/21/2009:
$BCSI $20.75 $ABT 46.52 $BIDU Short $390 $TDS $31.16

Posted 09/21/2009 04:04 PT:
$ABT Long above $46 to about $47.50
$BCSI Long above $19.25 to about $20- 21 Short below $18 to about $17.50
$BIDU Short below $396 to about $390 the to about 387, $385, $382 A sever pullback could take us to $352 area (See last Friday chart & Comments)
$FSLR Long above $157.10 to about $160-$161 Short below $153 to about $147
$MA Long above $223 to about $225, breaking above $226 look for $231 possibility, swing. Short below $221 to about $219, $217, $215 and as low as $210 (see last Friday chart & commnets)
$MCD Long above $57.20 to about $58.20, $59
$OIH Long above $120-121 breaking higher above to about $124-$125 Short below $116 to about $112
$TDS Long to $31-$32 Short below $29.50 to about $28.60

Friday, September 25, 2009

It's a Dance, Not a Marriage: Part II


I don't make it a secret that I love music and I love to dance or that I often use musical rhythms to help me tune to the market and sometimes dance steps to illustrate how life and trading are always in cycle with each other. As I was watching Dancing with the Stars the other evening, I was reminded of an article I wrote almost two years ago. One that I feel appropriate for the current "behavior" of the markets, as we are in some type of consolidation or a shift perhaps. Only time will tell which way the market will turn, and as ever, we need to remind ourselves that trades are not fixed in the stars nor etched in stone.

Act I.

How about a dance? When the offer is accepted we join others on the dance floor and depending on the music, we twist, turn, step, skip, twirl, shimmy, and do what's necessary for our enjoyment and successful execution of the dance.

Dancing is individual and yet it's also a commitment to the partner we accept temporarily. It lasts maybe five minutes or so. It's a flirtation, a possibility but not a lifetime contract and we know it for when the music stops and dance is over we look for another partner for the next dance. Or at least some do; for some think that one "yes" means they got you as a partner for the entire evening if not a lifetime.

Act II.

How about a trade? When the offer is accepted, we join others on the trading floor and depending on the momentum, we swing up or down, turn, elate, tremble as we watch the ticks and the charts and do what's necessary for the successful execution of the trade.

Trading is individual and yet it's also an investment in the company we chose temporarily. It may last a few seconds, several minutes, all day or even a few days but it's not a long term investment that some traders create by clinging to one despite the turning of the tides. Turning a trade into a marriage can be hazardous to your wealth.


Look again at both questions above and imagine yourself looking at a potential dance partner and a potential trade partner. Are you looking at your potential partner subjectively or objectively? In other words do you focus on the look, or the dance; the company or the trade? The best trades are when we remember it's only a dance; a temporary flirtation that, when executed perfectly, can be very rewarding.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Post Market Thoughts III

Post Market Thoughts: Question being asked: Is this it, the reversal, have we hit top? The answer lies in the future. It's impossible to answer for now. We can only follow what we feel and see from experience.

I know this much: it's the end of the quarter, and most likely people are taking profits. Will it trigger a long term sell off? I don't know. I know that there's end of year positioning coming in to play in the next quarter. So, the question is are buyers going to come back Oct 1st. You see, that's the future. So, I suggest playing it for today and see what happens Oct 1st, 2nd, 3rd. etc. We may be setting up for another rally before the final curtain falls.

That said, today's RIMM earnings announcement most likely will trigger a down day tomorrow, it being Friday, it being near the end of September, as mentioned above. We also need to keep in mind the circus taking place at the UN and the G20 and we still have a threat warning. The weekend is ahead and Monday will bring other worries. There is also a case to be made if there's a severe sell off: will there be buy triggers activated?

I keep reminding myself about 2007 Oct-Dec. We are at those levels in plenty of stocks, will they break into a new high? Could be but, like everything in the rhythm of life, we have to take a breather once in a while. So think about sitting out this dance and watch others perform, you may learn a new step or two.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

P.S. Speaking of dance, look for my next post on the subject and enjoy this tune

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Post Market Thoughts I and II

Post Market Thoughts: Seems we got a signal today. After a 4 day long tops on the DJIA. My feelings yesterday, (which I posted on another site, copy below) that there is an underlying anxiety out there, proved itself today in the last couple of hours. Actually what happened is a typical reaction when there is so much trepidation. It becomes a consensus and then, ta-da! After all that waiting, there’s a strong reaction: in this case a sharp up, the original trend, then a quick down revealing the anxiety and creating a sure confusion, which is followed by some panic. It also revealed a lot of sale targets were hit at 9900 area.

What’s next? Watch to see if each high is met with a sell, or that each low is met with a buy.. the higher high/lower low scenario is one of the most accurate way to tell the trend.

Let’s see if we retrace near the 9900 on the $DJIA . Noticing that the $DJIA is still being supported by the 10 DMA yet the 18DMA is moving away and trended lower on the daily chart. I’ll be watching to see if the two shall revert to trend the same way.

I’m expecting a sharp drop followed by a rally in the morning. But keep honing my expectation to be liquid: “be like water” which is easy for a Cancer. smile

How much we retrace will be telling. Me, I’m thinking to the 9830 area, which is near those quad top days. After that, anything goes.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

Posted 09/22/2009:
Post market thoughts.. this market is definitely setting up for something. Throughout the day there was an underlying anxiety. this could be nothing by tomorrow, or it could build and become more, but until it happens we won’t know for sure. There was one more element in play today: the very real threat and warning about a terrorist threat for all public transportation, entertainment venues. We need to keep in mind that, political or worldly news can also set off selling.

Monday, September 21, 2009

That StockTwits Moment

There's something hypnotizing about being noticed. As traders, we all wish to shout our triumphs from the rooftop to other traders. Our success in this very difficult profession, if indeed we are trying to make a living from it and not only playing with it, depends on our ability to prove, day after day, that we are in fact worthy of our audience.

It's the only way to attract people who may wish to invest with us or to invest in our capabilities. Marketing. I don't see much writing about it. I don't see many who confess that it is what we all desire. It has always been there, but StockTwits via Twitter just concentrated the information where one after the other people can compete for attention by giving the most comprehensive, accurate and followable advice about market entries, exits, buys, sells, holds, longs & shorts; the ins and outs of trading systems, styles, signals and analysis. Many of us, like to share, many like to teach, many like to give advice as well as there are those who like to boast, who like to hype, who like to attract, and many who like to get approval or seek consensus. In many ways it's like going to the fair where there are abundant variety shows, abundance of information and a plethora of carnival games for us to see,learn and do.

Sometimes it feels like we have to perform like so many circus entertainers, daily, relentlessly to prove that we are still on top of our game; capable and ready to perform always at our peak. We do it out of passion, we do it out of desire to connect, we do it for the love of the game and without other players, there is no game.

That is why StockTwits is so successful, it created a visible, vast playing field the size of which never before possible; giving us the ability to reach all the corners of the world from where the pros, the dabblers, the newbies come together and can participate at the same time. A Circus Maximus where the best will shine and be hailed; and those who have yet to earn their laurels can continue to learn, seek advice and practice their skills.

We've all been at the beginning and we all hope to get to the top and we all hope to gain by what we offer. How soon will we get there? Coupled with a few strokes of luck, it depends on how much we put into the game, who follow us, and who notices us. Participation, be it teacher or learner is the key. It takes hard work, persistence, ingenuity, study, and it takes consistence.

A StockTwits moment can come anytime; it's when someone notices, mentions and gives thanks for our work; but when StockTwits moments multiply we have the impetus to reach the top.

Get to know those who you follow and continue to give thanks, a nod, a mention, publicly and privately, to those that you find helpful to your trading. It will help us all in the long run.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

Sunday, September 20, 2009

Week of 09/14/2009 Results & Archive

Targets & Results 09/18/2009:
$AAPL Long $187.55 / $BIDU Short $396.23 / $MA Short $218 Long $223 / $GDX Short $45.37 / $OIH $Long $119.50 / $VNO $68.80(flat) Consolidating all day

Posted 09/18/2009 03:00 PT:
We are at Oct 2007 - Dec 2007 levels in many equities. Extreme Caution is advised. Chart

$AAPL Gapped up in much the same mode & reached $192 on Nov 06, 2007 maxing Dec 27,2007 at $200.03 Chart
Long above $185 to about $187-$190, 192 Short below $182 to about $180 - $178

$BIDU was at these levels on Dec 11, 2007 after it maxed at $429 on Nov11, 2007 Chart
Short below $398 to about $390 lower to about $382-379 if markets drop, Long above $404 to about $410-$420 areas with strong market buying action.

$MA peaked at $227 on Dec 10, 2007 and topped at $320 Jun 2008. It looks to be forming the right shoulder in this long pattern. Long term H&S pattern, could this fail too? If so, we're looking for another 100 pt potential, if not, perhaps a 50 pt drop to fill the gap: Chart
Long above $221 to about 224- $227, Short below $220 to about $218-$215, $210 on market pullback.

$GDX Looking for longer action to about $49 then $51 areas, Short below $47 to about $45
$OIH Long to about 119 then $121, $125 on breakout. Short below $115 to about $112
$VNO Short below $67 to about $65 Long above $68.50 to about $70-$71

Targets & Results 09/16/2009 & 09/17/2009:
$BIDU $404, 408 / PNC $46, $47 All from Monday & Tuesday posts.

Posted No Calls 09/16/2009 & 09/17/2009

Targets & Results 09/15/2009:
$BIDU $380, $386 $389, $398 / $FSLR $142.81/ $MA $210, $211, $213 / $PNC $45.86

Posted 09/15/2009 06:19 PT :
$PNC Long above $45 to near $46,$47 Short below $42.50 to about $41.50, $40 then $38.90
$BIDU continued long to $386, $389 - $410; Short below $379 to about $376, $373-368
$FSLR Long above $135 to about $143, Short below $130 to $127-125
$MA as yesterday, Short below 208 to about 206 then 204 areas. Long above 209 to about 210-211, then 213 areas

Targets & Results 09/14/2009:
$BIDU Long near target of $380 at $379.67/ $MA Short $206.32 / $MRVL Not Triggered/ $TSL Short $27.83 before new short adjustment/ $VNO from last week broke out to hit target $62.30 / $FSLR hit target from last week, $130.12

Posted 09/14/2009 06:15 PT
$BIDU Short below $367 to about 363 & lower possible to $350. Long above 373 to about 380 then 386
$MA Short below 208 to about 206 then 204 areas. Long above 209 to about 210-211, then 213 areas
$MRVL Swing Short below 16 to about 14.50. Swing Long above $16.75 to about 18.05
$TSL Short below 28.80 to about 27 then 26 ; Long above 30 to about 31-32
$TSL adjust to short below $27.70

Sunday, September 13, 2009

Week of 09/07/2009 Results & Archive

Targets Hit 09/11/2009:
$BIDU Long from previous day $375, $378 / $FCX Swing Long $70, $71/ $FSLR Short $137/ $GDX Long $47

Posted 09/11/2009 04:59PT
$BIDU contiuing long to $380 target with possible stalls at $375, $378. Short below $366 to about 365, 363, then $359.
$FCX contiued long to about $70, 71-72. Short below $68 to about 67.50 breaking lower to 66
$FSLR Long above 143.60 to about 146, 148, 150. Short below $140 to about 137, 135, breaking below to about $130
$GDX long above $45.80 to about $47 Short below $43.50 to near $42
$VNO continued long from laste trigger yesterday, or for new entry above 60.40 to 61.50, 62.30 areas.

Targets Hit 09/10/2009 :
$BIDU $366, $368 exeeding to $372 / $FSLR Long $142.15 / $FCX Long $69.26

Posted 09/10/09 04:55PST:
$BIDU Long to $366, $368 with possibility of hitting $380 before she stops.. Short below $361 to $359 breaking lower to $357-$355.50 areas.
$FSLR Long above $137 to above $143 braking out higher has potiential of $160 Short below $136 to about $132 then $130.
$V above $72 to about $74 longer hold to $75-77.50 Short below $69 to about $67.50, $66

Targets Hit 09/09/2009:
$FSLR Long $143/ $BIDU Long $360, $362

Posted 09/09/09 04:55PST
$BIDU long to 360, 362, 366, 368 possible $380 here forward. Short below $357 to about $353
$FCX Long to 70, $72 then $75 possible swing if it can hold above $63.50 Short below $63 to about $60
$FSLR Long to $143, $146 Short below $130 to 127 area.
$GDX looking nice if it keeps above the trendline
$GENZ breaking above the $57.50 to about 58.30 and higher to $59. Short below $56 to about 54.50 breaking lower to about 53.80
$V above $72 to about $74 longer hold to $75-77.50 Short below $69 to about $67.50, $66

Results & Targets Hit 09/08/09:
$APA $87 (opened above first target.) /$BIDU Long $353, $355, $359 (missed $360)/ $GENZ Short 55.40 /$PCLN Long $156, $158

Posted 09/08/2009 04:45 PST:
$APA short below $84 to about $82 then lower to about 80.50 area. Long above $85 to near $86 will be a challenge to break above $86 then to $87.80 area.
$BIDU look long to about $353, $355 and spike to $360 short below the $340 mark to about $337-$336 areas
$GENZ breaking above the $57.50 to about 58.30 and higher to $59. Short below $56 to about 54.50 breaking lower to about 53.80
$PCLN long to about 155-156 breaking higher to 158. Short below $152.50 to about 150-149 areas

Labor Day Holiday 09/07/2009:
USA Markets Closed

Monday, September 7, 2009

Week of 8/31/2009 Results & Archive

Targets Hit 09/03/09:
$BIDU $328, $333, $338 /$POT None/$BGZ Stopped

Posted 09/03/09 04:57 PST

$BGZ still in play from yesterday
$BIDU long to about $328 then 333, 338. Short below $323 to about 321, breaking $320 to 319
$POT long to about $92 breaking above to 94-95 area. Short below $88 to near $85

Targets Hit 09/02/09:
$DTO $86.50/ $BIDU $321, $323 exceeded to $327/ $FSLR Short $114, $112.09, long $118, $118.50 exceeds to 119.79/ $BGZ now on swing list

Post compiled 09/02/09 01:30 PST

$BGZ long above $26.39 to 26.80 - $27.75
$BIDU short to about $316, $311 breaking lower to 305-300 areas. Long above $317 to near 321, then 323.
$DTO long to about $86.50 then $89 area.
$FSLR short to $114, $111; long above $116.70 to about $118-118.50

Targets Hit 09/01/09:
$BIDU long $330, $338; short $320/$POT short $86.75/ $V long $72/ $FSLR short $114.47

Trading List update 10:17 PST 09/01/2009

FSLR Short below 115.70 stop 116.50 target 114, 111; Long above 116.70 to about 118-118.50 stop 116
$BA short below $49 to about $46; long above $50 to about $52
$BIDU short to about $320 breaking lower possibly to $314; Long above $326 to about $330
$POT Short below $89 to $86 area; Long above $90.50 to news $92
$V Long above 71.20 to about $72.60; Short below $70 to $66

Targets Hit 8/31/09:
$BA 49.50/ $POT 87.75/ $V 71.32

Posted 8/31/09 05:20PSST:

$BA Short at or below Friday close $50.93 to about $49.50 breaking further to above $48.90, then 48. Long above $51 to about $52 breaking the double top to about $53
$POT Long above 91 to about 93-94, still needs to pop 95 for higher. Short below 90 to about 86 with volume to the downside.
$V Long above 70.50 to about 71.50, looking longer term swing. Short below 69 for about .50 breaking below go 67.50