Tuesday, April 26, 2011

The Daily Note - Watch Your Netflix

This article is not about valuation, evaluation in the sense of an analyst. I'm not going to rip apart earnings reports, go through endless chart examples no matter how tempting.

I'm writing this strictly from a consumer's point of view about busy consumers, like many of us, and for the many who have yet to have the opportunity.

I am not a frequent user for reasons already stated but I'm a long time user; going on 6 years. I am amazed that there aren't more subscribers. 21% of USA. WOW I thought everyone was in on the secret by now. The convenience alone sold me. No trips to the video store.

Netflix started as a mail service company and they began with the idea while the Blockbuster & Hollywood Video and others were still in their heyday. But the parking and the hassle of not getting the movie I wanted was a disappointment, not to mention I'd rent several films and not return them on time. Well, you all know the scenario, I'm sure. Therefore, Netflix was a great time saver and convenience for me.

It is also fair to disclose that I've traded NFLX since their IPO and definitaly happy with its performance, as I'm sure many are. NFLX has become a star in its own class and a "usual suspect" on my trading list leader board. It's stellar rise surprised even me as at times I too worried about its valuation and evaluation, but following my experience and charts I kept on being a fan rather than a foe.

Being a foe on Netflix, as many have discovered, is not a very profitable stance; but I'm not going to argue with them since most of the reasons I've read for their criticism has really little to do with the understanding of the service that NFLX provides.

By service I do not only mean a convenient way of receiving films. Service I mean by it's true sense of the word. Although I've never spoken with a single person at NFLX, I've always felt I was in communication with them when needed. Their platforms have been always easy to navigate, understand and their outreach outstanding. Communication being a top component of any company's success, NFLX has long been a user but not an abuser of e-mail. A simple notice that a movie is mailed or received and a few questions about whether a film was received or when mailed, kept them informed and me confident that all was well.

Their mailing arrangement with the post office is nothing short of remarkable. Just last week, I posted a film to return in the last pickup of the day, and to my amazement I received and email that it was received at midnight the same evening. Granted I'm about 40 miles from San Jose, California, but it was truly astonishing how fast that movie found its way back to NFLX. Add to that experience the fact that in those 6 years I've had their service, I only had one movie that was lost and recall only 2 DVDs that did not function well, for which the replacement was sent promptly. The only other mishap was my own fault, as I returned a favorite music CD instead of a movie by accident, of course recovering that CD was never to be. My bad, learned my lesson well.

So now, that I have painted you a picture perfect service, how about the content of what I receive. Well there are many forms of video entertainment, and I've read criticisms about it in regards to Netflix. I will admit that although I was a student of film, I have never clamored to be the first one at the box office save, "Star Wars", "Indiana Jones", and "Lord of the Rings", latter for my son, so I am not a judge of how soon they get the latest releases. It's simply not important to me. I honestly do not think it's important to many, but that is up to NFLX to research as I'm sure they do.

As to what I wish to watch, and its availability, I've ran into a delay maybe 2 times but when I have 80 in queue, who cares. I have plenty to watch in my "spare" time. And, by the way , I like the fact that I can shuffle my queue to match my mood. Of course waiting for the mail,(WoW a whole day!), is no longer the issue either, since now I can download and watch a film or program anytime and the quality is without question, excellent.

Finally, we come to what prompted me to write this article. Complaints about available A list films. To them I have this advice: Ask. Simply ask for it. Netflix has been open to suggestions ever since I've been with them. I remember back when first started, when NFLX's inventory was rather thin, that they asked for suggestions. Being a fan of foreign films gave them a long list of favorites. Every last one of which Netflix delivered sooner or later. There were a couple they said they could not get due to availability but even those eventually were found. Their response to me is nothing short of amazing.

A good company responds to their customers. If they don't they eventually will fail. Netflix is not only successful because they meet a convenient demand, but also because they know what service is. I wish many companies would learn that lesson and practice it as well.

Happy Trading, Living and Viewing

The Daily Pick - NFLX what else could it be?

©DayTrading with Anni 2011 All Rights Reserved

Sunday, April 24, 2011

the Daily Note - Your Technical, My Technical

TA is different from FA .. but also my TA is different from your TA. In other words, there are many ways to use or abuse TA. By abuse I mean overuse. It took me a while to realize that I don't need all the TA indicators that is out there, but I do need to understand what each TA indicator does.

In the way I learned TA is much the way I like to learn anything including the language I am currently using. I like to watch, listen, absorb, and find where it fits in my brain and how I can apply it. Other people learn the easier or faster way perhaps. Which is to book learn, read, study and then apply what was learned. Don't worry, I won't put you down for it but I do tend to believe my way discovered fire and also killed a few along the way. In other words, your way of learning is just as fine as mine.

The beauty of TA is that there are many indicators that can be used alone or in combination. They all point out a vision or a possibility. But how you first arrive at the vision is the real question. Do you look for the vision or are you lead to the vision? Looking for a vision means searching without diversion, or seeing a chart without an indicator and searching for the possibilities within. Being led to a vision is looking at a chart with indicators embedded, which leads to a vision that or those indicators reveal.

If you like to be lead, it is best to first learn what each indicator does and how it performs by itself. So if you want to see how well the Moving Averages actually predict the movement of the stock, than you need to first use them by themselves. That is true with or without what someone else is telling you.

Each TA has it's strength and weakness therefore they will not always hold true. There are no absolutes here and it's why more than one indicator is usually used to make up the whole picture. As you gather your knowledge of each indicator, you can start combining them to see how they coordinate with each other and how one may support the other, illustrating the strength or weakness in movement.

In such a way do you build your own set of technical indicators and in such a way do you find your niche, or style in the trading world. Our set of indicators may look different, but we may arrive at the same place regardless. So don't be too judgmental or too concerned about what others are using. Watch, observe and learn, but don't get killed along the way and always stay true to yourself.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing and
Happy Easter

The Daily Pick - AAPL a day

©DayTrading with Anni 2011 All Rights Reserved

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

The Daily Note - An AAPL a Day

Seeing all the interest in AAPL just makes you know that a lot rides on it's future for many people. So much that it could and has moved the entire market before and could again move it tomorrow. But first let's examine the current challenges it faces.

One, gone is the #1 concern (for the present time): Steve Jobs' health. Two, it has taken on a new concern, so the new #1 is the Japan (or supply) factor, and , #2 the economic factor. Many disregard the economic factor but perhaps I shall put it as #1, being me.

I have no doubt that people will buy high tech stuff and use it from here to eternity or until something better comes along. The question is how much of the high tech stuff we need to renew and how often. Some things we replace more often than others, hence the newer fancier, bigger, prettier, cheaper, etc. models of cars, clothes and high tech stuff. (Shoes don't forget the shoes ;)) We all want to be on the cutting edge of stuff until.... we need food more than even ...shoes.

I know that, there will always be people who can afford anything but will there be more people that can afford AAPL as a need or less in a year or two? Current economics are pumped, like it or not. It's hard to remember focused on the NYSE. But I ask you how much do you go out to shop for food or gas? You may be able to afford it on your traders "salary" but have you ever had to face inflation of this caliber before of a regular salary? Gasoline now at 4.27/gallon in California food prices are growing faster than food is. Smaller packaging, smaller quantities for same price as before can no longer be used because it has become too obvious. It has gone on for about two years now.

I also know that current techies will be replaced by new techies and like music, other things will drive their desire for ownership. Remember RIMM? (OK OK AAPL will NEVVER die!) That is for those that will die with AAPL, and there will be some. Current supplies lack because of Japan's unfortunate earthquake disaster and there is a question if AAPL will be able to meet the demand; which is also a price inflater. New unplanned costs for AAPL will reduce profit margins especially if they want to keep prices low. Dilemma of the markets for certain, and dilemma for investors as well.

So, as I said in my blips and tweets, patterns have to finish before a new direction can take hold, current glance suggests that AAPL is on a new direction, even though there is a touch of test that may wish to be visited again; just to be sure. There is another pattern that needs to be finished also; The Universal pattern that of ebb & flow or what goes up must come down. Thus have companies, countries, currencies, and rulers come and gone. Thus will we and AAPL face the same in time. Until then, take an apple a day. It is truly good for your health both financial and psychological; puts food on the table no matter what the cost, day trading AAPL is the inflation hedge as long as it stays liquid and that's about the long and the short of it. Except for the longer perspective shown on the Monthly below.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

The Daily Pick - AAPL A different perspective on the Monthly

©DayTrading with Anni 2011 All Rights Reserved

Monday, April 18, 2011

The Daily Note - It's GOOG, Once Again.

It's really good to know that at least some had/have integrity at Google. I am referring the the story published by Business Insider regarding Sergey Brin, who appearantly threatened to quit because he disagreed with the majority leadership buckling to China's demands of censorship.

I know what Google allowed cost suffering for quite a few dissidents in China even before that 2009 incident. Which is why I wrote my article, "Google On My Mind" back in 2009.

I think integrity is honorable and I applaud Brin for speaking out against China's policy. I'm also not surprised that Eric Schmidt disagreed with Brin, when considering his favored stance and current position in government.

All that information may not have anything to do with Google's immediate woes on the markets but consider that perhaps it does give a picture about where Google is headed. Be it indeed a HAL born or will Brin's legacy keep it from trespassing upon us? A question indeed of integrity and the forever fight between freedom and tyranny. Yes, once again, Google is on my mind.

I will not quit trading them once again, since I have been trading them since and will continue to do so. But what also prompted this story is that I have once again examined their chart, and found that, just perhaps, there is more to the (hi)story as we lay it out on a longer time frame. Which, in this case is a monthly chart. Simply stated, GOOG may indeed have a recovery act hidden up its sleeves in the long run. Take a look at the monthly chart below and compare it to the dailies I've posted on chart.ly.com to get the full picture.

I do not want to get anybody's hopes up because indeed it's a long time frame yet I may not have come upon this outlook had it not been for a question tweeted to me by someone caught on the wrong side of earnings. Reinforcing the philosophy that no question deserves to be ignored, since it will lead one to discover new views ahead.

$GOOG looks on this monthly at a juncture. Breakdown and failure of a reverse/inverse head and shoulder pattern, or it will bounce and continue with a breakout to challenge the previous high. This question makes for the current $527 hold even more crucial for the long run.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

The Daily Pick - $GOOG

©DayTrading with Anni 2011 All Rights Reserved

Monday, April 11, 2011

the Daily Note - Accentuate The Positive

We like to think that we are always upbeat and happy during trading hours but truth is that we are buffeted by winds of change all the time and it's at times difficult to stay "alive", let alone happy.

Optimism needs to be carried forward by positive thoughts and when one is not doing well with trades, the thoughts tend to turn negative if not downright derogatory; which is the worst thinking that you can do for yourself.

While in the depth of negative thoughts, irrational emotions come into play and your view of the trade and the possible outcome becomes blurred with doubt. You may try to find outside assistance and verification but since you are already emotional, you may miss the point of their view totally or, at the least, judge them poorly.

When confronted with doubt, indecision also escalates and obsession in watching the ticks becomes evident. You become more tense, stressed and may be doing those nasty habits that do you harm physically. Holding your breath, clenching your jaw, swearing at yourself or the situation, all tend to increase your blood pressure and decrease your logic. If now, you were to be confronted with the need for survival, you could not be any worse prepared; and make no mistake that, what you are going through is a fight for survival.

So what happened? How did you get to this point? Most likely you ignored or did not set your stops. That is the single and only reason you are in the survival situation. Even the best trading plan can go bad, so, it can only get worse when your stops are not used because if your stops were used, you would be in the next trade already.

The first step for survival is the most difficult but once taken, the rest is just exercise. It's the most difficult because you have to decide that you don't want to die in the spot you are in. When real life survivors made that decision decisively and consciously, the next steps for getting themselves out of the situation, became much more clear and they could actually take the actions to help themselves continue to live. Since the mind has to carry forward the desire, it shifts to thinking in the positive allowing for the actions that assist the survival. Thinking is focused on the possible rather than the impossible allowing for the best choices to be taken, and as actions become successful, serotonin levels increase, optimism returns to perpetuate more positive thoughts and actions.

Thusly, you can asses the situation again with a clear mind and take the proper action for the trade which became a fight for survival. After which, you can further accentuate the positive by always using your stop rule, thereby eliminating the need to fight for survival in the future.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

The Daily Pick - SLV

©DayTrading with Anni 2010 All Rights Reserved

Monday, April 4, 2011

Wordplay I

daily you're reading, writing about .... whatever
you're there looking, finding something .... wherever
millions of words are typed, transmitted to ...whomever

is willing to connect ...whenever
someone is willing to respond ...forever

The Net

Happy Trading, Living and Connecting

The Daily Pick - CBOE

©DayTrading with Anni 2011 All Rights Reserved