Monday, January 30, 2012

The Daily Note - When Everyone's in the Parade...

"When everyone joins the parade, it's time to become a spectator." I had that saying for a while but it's not easy to recognize when to step out. A sure sign however is when everyone is piling on top, just as when everyone is jumping on the ship about to sail. In my mind if I take a break too early, I won't touch the sky but I won't be crushed on the bottom either. So is it time to pack bags and head for home yet?

Not so fast. There are several things to be taken into consideration before pulling out of the markets all together. One is that you have to admit that you will "never", meaning most likely never, get out at the top and consequently you will "never", meaning most likely never, get in on the bottom. As a long time trader, I doubt if it would fill up my 10 fingers and toes in addition. So you may ask what is the purpose of all the analytic s of tops and bottoms if that is not "where it's at"?

The purpose is recognizing that there are cycles in stocks not to necessarily hit them. The purpose is to see when those cycles change and to be able to adapt to the ebb and flow of the cycles like the phases of the moon. Once full or high, you know some emptying has to take place before a vessel can become full again. It's not good or bad, it's just the way it is. The purpose is to learn to choose your exits and entries wisely, rather than at random, and it's to accept the reality that being at the beginning of the parade is as good as being the one who starts one. Rivers don't start with a full gush but with a trickle of a spring and on the other end, they empty into seas or oceans. In order to make money in markets, you don't have to be the spring or the ocean.. just the river flowing in between the two.

Trouble is that many traders see things often as good when on the way up and bad when on the way down. But, in order to become good at adopting to changes, a trader also has to let go of the notion of "up and down" as well as "good or bad". Of the two, it's harder to let go of the notion of "up vs down" especially if you don't short stocks because there's no denying that charts point up in green and down in red. Also because of the hype of new highs, ytd highs and all time highs that are often celebrated whereas the opposite is very much dreaded.

It's difficult to jump in and buy when stocks are at the bottom, as it is difficult to sell when stocks are at the top and it's what keeps most traders from recognizing opportunity. Hence not selling at the top or buying at the bottom, but if you pay attention to where most traders are, you might notice that there are no spectators left, so, perhaps, it's the time to become one.

(I Stayed) Too Long At The Fair by Nancy Wilson on Grooveshark

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

The Daily Pick - DJIA

©DayTrading with Anni 2012 All Rights Reserved

Thursday, January 26, 2012

The Daily Note - I'm No Analyst

Nor do I pretend to be. I'm just like everyone else out here on the stream with a point of view and an opinion. I will not hit you over the head nor will I negate your point by making derogatory remarks or nasty jokes about your eyesight, brainpower or size of your shoe.

We all suffer from an experience or two which clouds our vision if we let it. We may even have thoughts in the moment that negate anything positive we may think. That is what many pro or amateur analysts don't realize and neither do their readers. We do not know what they were really thinking at the writing of the article, do they have a negative disposition or a positive bias toward the subject. Nobody is immune from "coloring" their writing with their true opinion even if the figures show otherwise. Knowingly, I don't like to analyze a company nor your opinion of it.

If you have followed me for some time, it won't be news to you that NFLX was on my "uplist" last year until the turn. All the time I was trying to penetrate the bias view of Netflix permiating the blogosphere. Opinions were flying about, calling to short the company and some of it with venom were posted regularly. Regardless, the stock kept rising and a couple of hundred points later, there was a turn. Interestingly it happened just about the time where many "threw their hat in the rink" after being punished all the way up the ladder.

It was time to short then because when traders give in, it's a sure signal that the stock has topped, or bottomed. I've been short until the last gap down in November, at which time it was put on my "shelf". All stocks need to rest from our list sometimes. It looked exhausted from the ride up and the ride down, and frankly I was not about to jump on the band wagon of further bashing a company that was so innovative to begin with. If it was going to go to $50 or $30, I was not going along with the ride that was purely emotional.

Just as a fyi on the side, many people I had conversations with during the last year, interestingly revealed something important to me about Netflix. They were loyal and that loyalty did not really go away and in my opinion, no business can make it without loyalty and it's also true that a business with strong loyalty is hard to demolish.

Since then, from time to time I looked at the NFLX chart for movement and often it looked too exhausted for it. Then a slow rise began to happen in December, which became a crescendo in January; nice signal to start playing again, and so we did. Mystery about why I did not ponder but reasons were revealed in yesterday's earning report. I'd say someone knew something in early January, but then I'm no analyst, therefore I just follow the chart and the chart is where the earnings plays get born.

Interestingly after the announcement, I again started seeing many comments about NFLX and the report being doctored, impossible, and the battle cry for going short one more time. A sure signal that ....

The Vision by Chris de Burgh on Grooveshark

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

The Daily Pick - NFLX

©DayTrading with Anni 2012 All Rights Reserved

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

The Daily Note - A Historic AAPL Day*

I don't know if I'd want to be an AAPL today. All eyes are on it and it's first earnings report after Steve Jobs' passing. It is also the leader of the markets lately.

It must be tough on the company heads knowing there is billions riding on this. What will be the reaction from the public? How will the numbers reflect on the future of the company? It will be decided by millions of traders, investors regardless of fans.

Much will depend on the trust and faith in the new leadership and the delivery of the report. I am sure that Steve Jobs did the best he could passing on the baton, but the people will still be the deciding judges on Tim Cook's leadership. It is the way with all icons, once they are gone, the future of their leadership is too. New icons will rise but not necessarily in the same realm or in this case, company. We saw that in Microsoft also. New challenges arise and have to be faced with expected results of the old. Not an easy task.

I have admired the leadership the masterful marketing and creative output for many years, but I also know that Ford did not live forever and great leaders are few and good leaders can come and go. The public is fickle no matter how they espouse otherwise, just take a look at RIMM's Blackberry. One icon is to be taken down by another is a natural way of things.

But I will not judge, I will just stay in the moment it is with dignity that you shall be received and from me you'll only get best wishes.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
*Published prior to earnings report on 24Jan2012
The Daily Pick - AAPL

©DayTrading with Anni 2011 All Rights Reserved

Monday, January 23, 2012

A Quick Note - Quote

a posse ad esse: If you do not stay with Yourself within You, you will always miss what there is for you, because you are chasing others.

©DayTrading with Anni 2012 All Rights Reserved

Sunday, January 22, 2012

The Daily Note - Something from Nothing

Blipping music last evening I notice a note with one of the tunes a DJ put out: "Creating Something from Nothing" the tune was good the DJ was familiar, and as I was listening I got struck by a lightning bolt.

Now if you do not know what blipping music means, be assured that blipping does not stand for a cover of an unmentionable word. At least not for me. No, it is referring to where I've been playing DJ for almost 3 years now. Even though I show up as an early pioneer, as I joined in 2006, it took 3 years for me to tap into the possible and once I caught on, met some online friends to play music tag with, it became a must place for my sanity. Part of being a trader is to be at my constant vigil on the goings on in the market, but if I do that, my mind would explode. You see, I need creative outlet; which brings us back to the topic of this article: "Creating Something out of Nothing" and the "lightning bolt".

Seems that we've been in a world of misdirection and the more we explore the Cosmos the more we realize how much we've been missing. You see there is no "nothing" there is only something or everything. Now I realize that on some intellectual level this has been already discussed and dissected but consider that it has yet to be accepted by most of us. Imagine that as SNL's Gilda Radner said it "There's always something". Imagine that the only time something was created out of nothing was way back billions of years ago by a big bang and since then although there seems to be a void or empty space, the contrary is true. Everything is everywhere because it was all created at once and all we are doing is tapping into that creation and bringing it to life.

To me this is what string theory is about, everything, in all dimensions, everywhere.

So if that is true, we are really creating something out of something, or perhaps better put, something out of everything. It's difficult to imagine just reaching out with our minds and becoming at one with creation, but perhaps it's easier to imagine being open to a new idea; to receive through thought.

Every one of us has had the experience of the moment where everything "is", all at once and we see it all at once. But those moments are rare because we shut it down fast as it overwhelms our senses. We argue that we have to live in our limited reality in order to get "things" done and we marvel at creativity of others who seem to transcend limitations to create something from nothing. When we realize how vast possibility really is, we are at the moment of "a posse ad esse" or "from possible to actual" and it becomes the moment we are actualizing the creation from billions of years ago.

So creation is not something out of nothing because everything is always around us, we just have to open our senses to being a vehicle for creation and become the instrument through which it comes alive.

ELO - Eldorado (Entire Album) by Electric Light Orchestra on Grooveshark

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

The Daily Pick - GOOG

©DayTrading with Anni 2012 All Rights Reserved

Friday, January 20, 2012

The Daily Note - I Hope You Dance

There is nothing more fleeting than life. Don 't live it without taking chances. No matter how much you lose or how much heartache you suffer, in the end what you will remember is the adventure you took and the adventures you missed.

Opportunity is always around with a basket full of chances we can take. It is when we freeze and don't make a choice, when life passes us by. That moment that we hesitate is when the best choice slips through our fingers and like water gets quickly absorbed. Thank goodness there are, as I said, a basket full of chances still left, but if you don't take the chance, you'll never be given a chance to love, live, trade or dance or whatever else you could have done.

Every time you notice a trade even if it just catches the corner of your eye, take a better look. The notice is the first signal you'll receive when in the moment of life or trade. That notice that would not have happened if it was not an opportunity for you. Part of trusting is that life will bring you the best opportunities, the other part of trusting is that you're prepared to handle it no matter how difficult it seems, because life does not give you something you cannot do, no matter how difficult it seems.

I have a card I received many years ago that lists the Rules for Being Human which I keep on my desk now because what is the awesome truth about the list is that we never stop learning nor do we ever stop being given lessons to learn. Trusting self and opportunity is a lesson. So if your eye caught the title or the theme of this blog, article or music, consider it a chance given because it means you are ready. So, dance to the music of life and and keep on learning.. perfection is as perfect you'll be and it's all an illusion anyway.

I Hope You Dance by Ronan Keating on Grooveshark

a posse ad esse
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

***** The Daily Pick - ©DayTrading with Anni 2012 All Rights Reserved

Monday, January 16, 2012

The Daily Note - Trading in Earnings Weeks

This week will start the most watched stocks earnings season. Leaders like $GOOG, $IBM, $ISRG, $MSFT followed next week by $AAPL, $NFLX among many others, and in addition the financials like $AXP, $BAC $COF, reporting. Much focus will be placed on actual tone of the past quarter in my opinion because there was a sense of acceleration therefore expectations rose for more product output and better earnings. The outlook for next quarter too will have an extra emphasis due to recent economic developments overseas, especially in the financial areas. So what is a trader to do or anticipate? Well, if you're in the moment, nothing.

All we have to do is look at the moment of the results, notice the accelerated movement and react to the outcome. But that would almost be too easy, and since most traders fail at earnings plays, there is something more to be considered.

One is that many traders jump the gun on rumors and just plain jitters, and tend to create huge swings one way then another at the moment or even before the actual announcement of facts.

The other issue is that much of the reporting is "headline" which in itself is just another word for hype, which too can add to the volatility.

Third considerations is that most people interpret earnings on the numbers good/bad then the second whammy hits, which is the outlook good/bad. They can agree, disagree or negate each other out. Each one has a different result in the stock movement.

The above factors are what drive traders to or away from the actual trade at earnings announcement. Yet if you study the reactions to those 3 factors mentioned and anticipate the high low swings, earnings plays can be most rewarding. They are not easy nor are they to be done off the cuff. It is as much a study as any other strategy.

Not all stocks play well at earnings, even among the leaders. So the last consideration of course is interest. Likes of GOOG, AAPL, BIDU and in its heyday, RIMM one could always anticipate a good move. So knowing the stock you are planning to trade is most important. The more intimately you are involved with a certain stock amongst the likely movers, the better for your plan.

Finally, study the reaction before during and after announcement, and be sure to learn to quickly read the report as it is displayed and do not rely on the news media to tell you how good or bad it is because by that time, you're too late, but always trust yourself.

Show Me Your Soul by Red Hot Chili Peppers on Grooveshark

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

The Daily Pick - CREE

©DayTrading with Anni 2012 All Rights Reserved

Friday, January 13, 2012

The Daily Note - Seeing the Present Moment

You can never change something that's in the past. If you've done something you regret, all you can do is apologize; if you did something well, all you can do is rejoice. Matters not how you try to do it the same way once again, it will never be the same. Similar it can be, but never the same.

Like cells replacing one another, the new is never like the old, otherwise we'd stay physically young forever but alas, with each moments passing, we live in a different world. Therefore, we get and react ever so slightly different to the circumstance that comes next our way. It may seem the same to us but on examination, we have to admit that there are and were differences. The consequences however remain the same and so does the outcome; we either succeed or fail. So in trading we either profit or lose. Rejoicing or crying will not change it or recreate it.

However our attitude, our outlook and our belief can change everything. The way we approach each moment the way we live life and take each moment of opportunity is where we can change the outcome and our future. Each moment at once reveals a glimpse of the past to be acted on in the present to create our future. All at once, moment by moment we create and what we do with each single instant of opportunity is always up to us.

As you look at the chart of your choosing, be it your life or market, see in it the past, the current moment, and the outcome, or future. In the same glance, the same instant it reveals everything. If your chart is full of indicators, they will restrict your vision and your vision will be deterred by polluting thoughts of doubt. So clear your chart and clear your mind. a posse ad esse

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

The Daily Pick - NDX

©DayTrading with Anni 2012 All Rights Reserved

Monday, January 9, 2012

The Daily Note - Finding Self

I'm sure you know that realizing who we can become and what we can achieve seems easy as we listen to motivational speakers or read self-help books, but once left on our own we become confused and soon forget most of what we've read or heard. That is because when we're listening or reading intently we are focused, we are in the moment. It is in the moment that we see all possibilities but once we're no longer "there" we get confused.

The speaker and writer has the right words that lead us to the place where we can see the whole and do not get lost in the details. The details are where we tend to derail and make what seemed so simple, complicated. Even if we make notes, write journals or lists, we tend to forget what we learned from the source. The reason may be obvious to some, and forgotten by others. It is because we want to remember what others, have reasoned out to us so well. We give them credit for all they know and neglect to recall one of the most important steps they pass on; that which is within us.

In fact, like speakers say and books write, all the answers lie within us and not outside of us, yet that is the place we tend to avoid, wish not to explore or forget to recall. We use many different reasons for it which matters not, because excuses are only a way to prefer dependence or perhaps more accurately avoiding the truth about ourselves.

Yet the next step requires that we go within because it's there that we can live in the moment. We can't focus on the present while we keep looking outside for answers, but once we are with our self, comfortably in our body, we notice a calm not an intensity and it's from the calm that we can see the whole picture and the simple path.

There are many ways to reach this place of self, and not one single way is more right than another. What we all need to do is to find which is the one for our personal self; meditation, yoga, prayer, exercise, will all take us to that personal space. Practicing being in the self every day, makes it easier. Along the way you'll find new horizons, questions and answers that may not have been previously easy. But perhaps the most marvelous is the adventure of discovering or rediscovering ourselves. So give it a try for a week, see where it will lead you on your next trade.

Crystal Cave by Scott Fitzgerald on Grooveshark

Happy Trading and Living in the moment.
a posse ad esse

The Daily Pick - NDX outlook

©DayTrading with Anni 2012 All Rights Reserved

Monday, January 2, 2012

The Daily Note - From Being Able, To Being

a posse ad esse

What does it really take to become a successful trader? Enough capital to spare, ability to learn are there at the top. Next comes studying what and how others succeeded at trading for a living. But studying that is also where most traps are. Truth is that most traders make it look easy. Truth is also that those most responsible will warn you that it's not as easy as it looks. We all talk of how it takes time and patience to find your own niche, style and strategy and there are plenty of those who are willing to teach and share what they know. Yet still, the success rate is small when compared with the number of people who endeavor to make a living by trading.

I will not pretend to discover a new and magical way for anyone, but I submit that the answer is beyond learning the methods, technics, indicators. It's not even overcoming your psychological makeup although understanding of it is of great benefit. It does take a great deal of practice however and beyond that, what I submit, is that it takes believing in your own abilities and not in someone else's.

This small step of believing, is also the largest step we can take in life for it takes us from being able to being. Trust, as an issue, in our own abilities I have written about for 4 years now.. but the next step of that trust is the realization and it's time for this blog to take the next step as well.

a posse ad esse the Latin phrase that has been appearing on my site and my charts for a few months now is where realization takes us to the next level: that of being actual.

You can join me on the journey of that realization; of leaving struggle behind and using the moment to create. The journey from being possible to being actual. No magic, no crystal balls, no fairy dust, just you learning to trust in yourself.

I honestly do not know how long this journey will become for you. This journey has a vast possibility that can go way beyond trading and most likely will take you for the ride of your life.

So welcome to 2012 the year of transitioning from possibility to actuality and welcome to my trading world.

Chariots of Fire by Vangelis on Grooveshark

Happy Trading and Living the possible

***** The Daily Pick - DJIA Outlook w/o 03Jan2012

©DayTrading with Anni 2012 All Rights Reserved

Sunday, January 1, 2012

The Daily Note - Happy New Year Resolutions

Each New Years Eve millions of people resolve to do "it" better. "IT" being a problem one sees with oneself that one feels needs correction. By day five into the new year according to those who take polls on such things, most of it is forgotten. I quip sometimes that I may as well wait for day five before making mine and, of course, by then I forget I was going to do it. LOL, and so it goes.

I don't know what is magical about day one of the new year that would make us better if we start something there. I feel if we wanted to change anything about ourselves it would be good to start the moment we think it, and not wait until ...? But we are human and are run by clocks we made important. Midnight is closing and opening of a day. Markets open at 9:30 offering new possibilities and close at 4pm making us wait for a new day for the next ones. We keep hope alive by looking forward to the next possibility but what do we do while we're in the minute, hour, day, year? We forget what we were going to do. And so goes resolutions, forgotten until we wake up at the end of the year to the realization that we may have not changed one bit from last year.

So perhaps the problem is not "IT" but what is our focus. The question of where we are any given moment in time and what do we do with that moment. Perhaps the only resolution we need is to be conscious of every moment and in that way we live in the new all the time.

Resolutions by Carolyn Green on Grooveshark

Here is to new trades, life and dances

The Daily Pick - 2012 NDX Outlook

©DayTrading with Anni 2012 All Rights Reserved