Monday, November 30, 2009

The Daily Note - The Dubai Test

I will be posting my random thoughts for the day, here, along with some significant calls that I may see.

Eye on Dubai and other matters. Is Dubai the ultimate "If we build it, they'll come" test? Other than it's absolutely marvelous architecture, and various one of a kind amusements, do the builders know something we do not? I would think it would be the ultimate destination to escape the coming ice age, and in which case current real estate prices are a bargain. One must admit if true, and a new ice age beats out global warming, Al Gore and Company would receive the ultimate Trump. Speaking of who, does Trump have a stake on either side of the matter? In any case, I do hope Dubai has a plan for a large hydroponics site, in addition to the desalination plants. But my ultimate question is: How do they keep all those buildings cool without a major "footprint"? Care to comment?

Now to the other matters: Last week proved that one trading post can be played more than one day, given proper conditions.

BIDU Long above $439 to above $441, breaking above $442 to near $445. Short below $434 to near $431 then to $429 area, below $429 to $426 possible.


JPM Short below 40.70 to near 39.90. Long above $42 to about $42.55


MA Long above $239 to near $241 breaking higher to near $243. Short below $238 to near $237-$234, breaking below to near $232.00.


APOL Short below $55.00 to about $54 braking below 53.70 to about $52.00. Long above $56.20 to near $57, then to about $58.50 .

Happy Trading Living and Dancing

Now playing: Candan Ercetin - Kaybettik Biz
via FoxyTunes

Week of 11/23/2009 Results & Archive

This weeks results reflect how under certain conditions, calls can be used again during the week.


Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Waiting for Black Friday

Sitting here at a railroad station awaiting our destination, Black Friday here we come. I don't know but I have a problem with shopping days as indicators. Wouldn't it be nice if it was Thanksgiving Day, that would be the indicator of how we feel about the state of the economy? Family to show how healthy we are, how optimistic we are?

The focus is now on the biggest shopping day in the country and it's to foretell the fortunes of retailers in December. We barely remember that December is about other celebrations anymore; and it's ironic that the most outspoken generation about materialism and largest population ever now in USA which embrace Marxism/Communism/Socialism so eagerly await the figures of this last best kick into the economy. Days, in America, that were about giving thanks for a great harvest, safety and freedom and about worship of the birth of mankind's saviour have turned to worship of a different kind.

Why don't we just take the last 6weeks off every year and let shoppers do what they do best: shop; travelers do what they do best: travel; and the rest of us spend time, the most precious commodity we have, with our families?

Winter is about rest. Rest in order to be born anew in the spring. The rest is needed like sleep, for strength, clarity of mind, and for spirit to again fill the soul. When is the last time you took time for it all? When is the last time you took a rest from the chase? When is the last time you let the thoughts go, let the mind rest and let the spirit rise in its stead?

We've ruined many holidays with focusing on other matters, I hope we won't ruin Thanksgiving as well. What if Black Friday, never came again?

Happy Thanksgiving to my trading family!!

Monday, November 23, 2009

The Daily Note - Market Puzzles

I will be posting my random thoughts for the day, here, along with some significant calls that I may see.
Welcome to the week that was or the week that will be. Going in strong, with hopes up? Going in long blind? Looking forward, not back, we have yet another possibility to explore. Puzzles are solvable, the future is not.. it is only possibilities and the more we look, the more it is likely to reveal new sites, like the Universe with myriad of stars, revealing patterns of new wonders as we seek for new plunders.

My question to you is: What if we are on the verge of another step up to another secondary trend line in the channel?

This does not dismiss my original pattern outlined last week, but it does bring another one into the forefront to consider. For traders however, there is only today to watch and consider. The future always reveals itself at the proper time. Keep working it.

BIDU Looks like the future seems bright, again, where it shall lead, and how high ? Yet it looks the same model will work.

Long above $429 to near $431, then $432-$434. Breaking above $434 to $439, then $442-$445. Short below $426 to near $424.50, breaking below $424 to near $422 and dropping below $420 would open BIDU up to the possibility of $400.

FSLR As traders we always look for the opportunities, the "what if"s. Looking is one thing, jumping without thought is another. The intrigue is strong with FSLR; Of course the break out above $130 could make it really interesting and given it's history, it's not impossible. Consider the downside too, however, as it has equally slid taking away many a dream.

Long above $122 to about $124, breaking above $125 to near $128. Short below $120 is only for scalpers to about $117, below which a revisit to near $115 is possible.


FCX Continues it's journey in an attempt to fill the gap. It is anticipated by many if not all traders. There is that word again: anticipation. Nothing wrong with it as long as it does not blind. FCX is not a fast nor a big mover usually.

Long above $86 to $87, then near $89, breaking above to about $91. Short below $84.50 to near $83, breaking below to about $81


KO Interesting breakout could lead higher here with going into the holidays, never underestimate the need for a drink.

Long above 57.60 to about $58.60-$59-$59.50. Short below $57 to about $56, then around $55.30.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

Now playing: Hank Jones - Work Song
via FoxyTunes

Friday, November 20, 2009

Week of 11/16/2009 Results & Archive

The Daily Note - Opex

I will be posting my random thoughts for the day, here, along with some significant calls that I may see.
Today is options expiration day which usually means small tight moves with volatility. Rather frustrating for traders, Of course it's also the week before Thanksgiving Holiday which makes it more interesting as many will be taking next week off. Certainly there are not many more days left for the opportunity of repositioning, profit taking and shedding. Keep all of this in mind during slow, unpredictable, whippy moves in the market because you still have to remember that we are most likely topped on the DJIA and therefore a descent of several days is likely going forward. Good luck in the markets today.

BIDU is vulnerable to rumors, either tech, economy or rivalry. The stellar rise itself is enough for it to become a target and inot many will forget its fantastic descent last fall. We may experience similar volatility in the coming weeks.

Short below $426 to near $424.50, breaking below $424 to near $422 and dropping below $420 would open BIDU up to the possibility of $400. Long above $429 to near $431, the $432-$433 area and as high as $435


MA My last words on this were that it's vulnarable below the $229, small dip and a recovery to near $230 did not convince me. When MA moves, she likes extremes; witness yesterday's recovery and descent. She also carries a rather snappy whip, so the caution light is always on.

Short below $229 to near $227 the near $226 and furhter to $224. Long above $231 to near $233-$235 with high volume.

IPI is a slow mover, as called a couple of days ago, it is still oscillating around the same pivots. On a strong correction day like today, it did not effectively move off positions. Let's see if it can in the coming days.

LONG above 29.25 to near $30 then toward mid to near $31. Short below $29 to near 28, breaking down to near $27.60 and lower possible to $26

RIMM has been taking a beating and now finds itself at a precipice. It's been here before, yet before the market was not. Now, it has the market sentiment which may help it down to fill the gap. It won't be an easy road, as many may find the price very attractive, ye to fulfill it's destiny, it may need to finally close the gap before it can start it's climb back to it's old glory.

SHORT below $58.50 to near $57.80, lower to $56.60, then $54 areas. Breaking $54 will probably dive it to near $52. $49 will fill the gap. Yet I'm not sure this is a one day move unless there's a severe crash. Also remember it's options expiration so, severe moves tend to be less likely. LONG $59.50 to near 60.40 area, higher if it breaks $61 to above $62

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

Thursday, November 19, 2009

The Daily Note - Scalp Day

I will be posting my random thoughts for the day, here, along with some significant calls that I may see.

This looks like a short/long scalp day, until further confirmation for direction. The $DJI is in the sideways move expected to continue according to pattern shown yesterday.


$BIDU chart has remained to the downside low as shown yesterday, the further donwside vulnerability is below $426 to $424.50 area.

$POT filled gap, in limbo currently short below 110.90, long above $ 112.66


Wednesday, November 18, 2009

The Daily Note - DJIA

I will be posting my random thoughts for the day, here, along with some significant calls that I may see.

I keep being concerned with how significantly we have reached a possible correction level on the DOW. Although corrections are good, and welcome, the significance here is that it looks as if the market wants to keep pushing up. I can already see a near 600 point correction and if we push higher, that may increase. This is the chart of the "caterpillar" pattern I've been following and as it's in a secondary channel, (channel within a channel) there is the potential possibility that it will punch higher toward the 11000 which I wrote about yesterday. Take a closer look here :

Must be ready for anything because it would be significant if markets pushed too much higher before a correction. Also note that we are looking at a potential 600 point correction (although not in one day) that is if the pattern stays true.

$BIDU perhaps the biggest significant breakout is off the $260. Now it has possibility of a $460

Long above $442 to $444-$445, breaking higher to near$447; short below $439 to near $437, breakdown to below $436.70 significant, $435-$434 further, longer breakdown possible below 432 to about $427.


$GDX on watch list, double top or breakout?

Long above $52 to potential of $54, short below $50 to about $48.

$POT breakout is significant, watch $IPI for possible good sympathy play.

above $28.50 to near $30 & higher breakout possible

$DGW Interesting breakout and potential for higher play to near $43

Long above $41.50 target near $43, short below $40 to about $38


Also watching $GLD, $NEM $FCX $APWR,

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

Now playing: Little Pink Anderson - I Got Mine
via FoxyTunes

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Are You Ready For Some More Bull?

Undeniably, the run has been impressive and also undeniably there is more and more pessimism creeping into the markets; it is also true that disbelief and denial will always prove to be frustrating. More and more, I hear traders questioning the road they are on, second guessing themselves increasingly as they are trying to find the path most comfortable.

Adapting to what is, is the single most challanging daily exercise that each trader must do if they are to survive the daytrader's game and listening to others can lead one dangerously astray. I too fall to prey, at times, to feelings that have no place in a trader's day. I find that when listening to opinions, especially on television and radio, I let my emotional reactions influence my view of the charts. Does that mean that I don't read or listen to the news and commentary at all? No, but it does mean that I don't listen during trading hours. I need my mind clear and to be able to visually accept the data that is happening, not the data I wish to see. To this end, I find that looking at charts from different angles helps me adjust my vision, to see what is and what is possible.

So, let's take a look at the history and let's take a look at the probability or possibility, which may greet us in the coming days ahead. As you know, I've been following the DOW and I actually though of swtiching back to the S&P until today, when I noted how the trends I've been looking at, are playing out. I was looking at two channels (channel withing a channel) for a couple of months now, from which I've been saying to a few that 12000 is not impossible and saying to many more that breaking 10322 will likely lead to 11000. The reason is evident on this chart, as the history tend to point toward a probable future if actions clear the path.

Today, we are back to the level of 1 year ago on the DJI; something that seemed impossible a few months ago even as the markets were rising. Also note, that we broke out of the secondary channel and provided, that, the trend will continue, the 11000 is cleary on the horizon and not an unreachable goal. On the reverse, to appease the bears, there is the possibility of a correction, the likes that is also evident in the secondary channel, prior to a higher move. It could happen today, or it could happen from a higher high, but corrections have to occur and the bears must be fed from time to time, and it is a smart bull who will accept that probability.

Whether these will play out sooner, before year end, later or none at all, is the goal of this exercise. The goal is to see what is happening, and what, if history repeats, is probable. Now that we have, it's time to just let it sit in your awareness, not taking a major role in your day, but to remind not to deny a trend.

Now, put on some music to relax.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

Monday, November 9, 2009

It's a Great Day, Revisited

This weekend I spent celebrating my son's debut. He played a role in the making of "A Christmas Carol" the movie for which he was hired for almost 2 years ago exactly, just two months following his graduation from Ex'pressions College for Digital Arts. His friends and family together watching a creation of which he was part of was exciting, seeing his name among the credits made me extremely proud of a young man who could have chosen a very different path 3 1/2 years ago following an attack which I address in a "Great Day" archived under November 2007. Instead, he is currently working on his 3rd film with the company.

The story of "A Christmas Carol" by Charles Dickens is not new, however many seem to think it's a story for children. I beg to differ with them, for it is scary for the young, as it was really written for adults to wake them up to the reality that they have control over how they live their own lives and how their attitude shapes their destiny. This movie, which stays almost verbatim to the original story as written, makes the point extremely well.

You may want to know what this all has to do with trading. Well, maybe nothing but then I'd probably not mention it; maybe a lot, and so I am.

The main focus in the story is Scrooge's transformation as he is confronted by his past, present and possible future. He sees his past and how he shaped his life by the decisions he has made, which resulted in loss. Scrooge lost his love but we may have different losses that haunt us into the present. Then, Scrooge is shown that the present is where life is, where fulfillment can be attained and it's the present where joy resides; yet, those can destroyed by apathy and want, both feelings, that do not allow for thankfulness.

We approach each trade shaped by our ghosts of trading past. Into each trade the sceptre of fear can creep, haunting us with fear or greed. It is in the present where we have to examine whether we want it all for ourselves or can we be giving, sharing of the trade as well. Do we want to hold on to each penny or are we willing to let some go. Accepting and giving being both sides of the same coin of abundance.

Of course, the future is shaped by our attitude in the present. The result of the trade; how did we receive it, with gratefulness or with want? Are we going to be enjoying the fruits, sharing them or horde them? It's here where can be taken off course and not see how much abundance we already have nor how much more there is for our taking as long as we remain open,stay in the present, forgiving and loving not only others but also ourselves.

Perhaps we should all have the fear of death driven into us by the ghost of things that may be, as Scrooge is. Maybe that way we'll realize more easily how well off we are, how fortunate our lives and how much we all have to share.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing ("I feel as light as air")

Friday, November 6, 2009

Week of 11/02/2009 Results & Archive

Targets & Results 11/05/2009
$MA targets hit $228, $229, $230 Total points: 3.0

Posted 11/05/2009 05:52 PT
$MA Long above $227 to $228, $229-$231 ; Short below $225 to $223-$220 areas

Targets & Results 11/04/2009
$PCLN Long 165.10-167.00; $165.20 - $166.50; $165.10 - $167.50 Total points 6.50

Posted 12/04/2009 00:53 PT
$PCLN Long above $165 to near $167 then $170 area. Short below $164 to $162, $160, breaking lower possible to $159-$157 areas.

Targets & Results 11/03/2009
$BIDU Long $377-379, $378.50 - $380, $379 - $384 Total points: 9.0

Posted 11/03/2009 04:23 PT
$BIDU below $375 to 370, then breaking to $368, $365 and as low as $362. Long above $377 to $380, breaking higher on strength to perhaps $383

Targets and Results 11/02/09
$MA Long 220.10 -223.23 ; 225.56 ; 220.10-222.60 Short : $MA Long 220.10 -223.23 ; 225.56 ; 220.10-222.60 Short $218.90 - 218.60 Total points: 10.59

Posted 11/2/09 03:03 PT
$MA Short below 219 to $217-near $215, Long above 220 to near $223, then $224-$225 areas
The Dow:

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Are You on Track?

Ever have a feeling of being in the wrong place at the right time? I've a feeling of misdirection, so let's not get derailed because you can be at the right place at the wrong time too..are you too early or too late is the real question.

You know it. It happens to us all, we tootle along to a song, smooth as can be, and "whammo" something happens and there we are looking at black eye in the mirror wondering what happened? We can chose many answers out of a bag if we are looking for excuses but boiled down it's most likely that we got over confident with anticipation.

It's a place where we think we know where it's going but guess what, it doesn't or at least not yet, so we get sucked in further into anticipation,forgetting reality. Becoming over sure and letting our ego fly a little too high all create the same result. They all allow us to lose focus and whammo, we derail, get off track.

It's a delicate balance between intuition, anticipation and reality, all of which have a place for traders.Intuition gets you into the trade, anticipation makes you watch the trade, and reality gets you out of a trade. To have the perfect trade, you need all three in perfect rhythm.

Like the clickety clack of the railroad track, you know something's wrong when it falls out of place. Trust it, and you 'll boogie for a long time.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing (the Choo Choo Ch'Boogie)