Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Are You Ready For Some More Bull?

Undeniably, the run has been impressive and also undeniably there is more and more pessimism creeping into the markets; it is also true that disbelief and denial will always prove to be frustrating. More and more, I hear traders questioning the road they are on, second guessing themselves increasingly as they are trying to find the path most comfortable.

Adapting to what is, is the single most challanging daily exercise that each trader must do if they are to survive the daytrader's game and listening to others can lead one dangerously astray. I too fall to prey, at times, to feelings that have no place in a trader's day. I find that when listening to opinions, especially on television and radio, I let my emotional reactions influence my view of the charts. Does that mean that I don't read or listen to the news and commentary at all? No, but it does mean that I don't listen during trading hours. I need my mind clear and to be able to visually accept the data that is happening, not the data I wish to see. To this end, I find that looking at charts from different angles helps me adjust my vision, to see what is and what is possible.

So, let's take a look at the history and let's take a look at the probability or possibility, which may greet us in the coming days ahead. As you know, I've been following the DOW and I actually though of swtiching back to the S&P until today, when I noted how the trends I've been looking at, are playing out. I was looking at two channels (channel withing a channel) for a couple of months now, from which I've been saying to a few that 12000 is not impossible and saying to many more that breaking 10322 will likely lead to 11000. The reason is evident on this chart, as the history tend to point toward a probable future if actions clear the path.

Today, we are back to the level of 1 year ago on the DJI; something that seemed impossible a few months ago even as the markets were rising. Also note, that we broke out of the secondary channel and provided, that, the trend will continue, the 11000 is cleary on the horizon and not an unreachable goal. On the reverse, to appease the bears, there is the possibility of a correction, the likes that is also evident in the secondary channel, prior to a higher move. It could happen today, or it could happen from a higher high, but corrections have to occur and the bears must be fed from time to time, and it is a smart bull who will accept that probability.

Whether these will play out sooner, before year end, later or none at all, is the goal of this exercise. The goal is to see what is happening, and what, if history repeats, is probable. Now that we have, it's time to just let it sit in your awareness, not taking a major role in your day, but to remind not to deny a trend.

Now, put on some music to relax.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing