Sunday, October 27, 2013

The Weekly Outlook ~ A Trader's Motto ~ $SPX $NDX $DJIA

*****Perhaps traders could use a lesson from Arthur Ashe, winner of 3 Grand Slam tennis titles, who said: "Start where you are. Use what you have. Do what you can. " A great philosophy to live by and could be motto for everyone and not just traders.

Many traders get into this business and start trading with the thought that it will be an easy road to wealth; a way to make up what they have perhaps not done before, like saving for the future. Many of get into this business thinking that we have no other option due to loss of job or ability to work;  and I'm sure that many start trading out of sheer boredom, having no other hobbies, as I also think that many people become traders because of their love of the "game". It makes no difference why we start the journey the important part is that we keep our wits about us. Reasons make no difference about the results but the approach does. Those who get into trading thinking that it's fast money will burn out faster than those who get into trading with caution, but no one will be saved without the practice of the above motto.

First, we have to start with where we are; which really applies to getting to know your tools and how you need to use them in order to have good trading execution and results.  There are people who've done this before you, so take lessons, read, and get a mentor or coach if you need it, because, your intelligence is a tool.

Second, we have to use what we have; which means no borrowed money and no money that is needed to keep up our standard of living. Only we can control our own debt ceiling.

Third, do what you can. Meaning apply yourself and what you learned, and practice it. We need to constantly keep up with the exercise of trading. We cannot slouch off or get comfortable and expect to get back in with the same knowledge as we left.  Learning is constant so keep constantly learning.

Markets change from day to day and if we apply this motto daily, we will more likely stay with our plan and not over-trade or extend ourselves to the point of high expectations and low return.

Learn to Live by Darius Rucker on Grooveshark

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

The Weekly Outlook- $SPX $NDX $DJIA  

©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

The Daily Note - Icahn, You Can ~ $NFLX ~ Riding on Icahn's Coattails

*****Warning! I'm going to say it like it is! I always have said it like I see it,  but today the gloves come off.. well just a bit. No apologies. I see the streams full of Icahn bashing for cashin' . Come on traders! Can one of you say you'd hold through $389 when you bought at $58?  Many of you would cash at $389 buying at $358. I bet you many did.

The point that this is the free markets. Unforgiving real life free markets. It's not your Mammy or Dada holding your hand free markets, although many of you think you'll be safe if only the government would put in more regulations. Regulations make markets more volatile or haven't you seen history? More on that later.

So Icahn sold much of his shares in $NFLX, my my, you forgot perhaps that his money helped make the company also that you could invest in yourself at much lower share base? That's how it works. Someone takes the "bigbucks" chance that a company will do well. We ride their coattails. Media hypes it by announcing about the "bigbucks" investors and their views. We chase it.

The burning question for you is, how much homework did you do before you chased it, trashed or cheered it?  We can trade along the direction of the market as we see fit and trade against it as we see fit. If we pick the wrong way, we suffer the consequences. If we don't do our homework and only believe someone else about the direction, we suffer the consequences.

On my blog you can still see my bullish calls throughout 2010-2011 all the way up  the previous high on $NFLX. I kept talking and instructing about the clouds on the charts until the last one dispersed and the drop was inevitable.  The drop was unforgiving as you can see it in history, which shows how much traders chase direction. (Not bragging, just bringing you up to day in case you missed it.). I also spoke of the loyal subscribers of $NFLX, including me, and how people just don't change those habits unless they are forced.

When Icahn bought $NFLX at $58 many still said it was going to $3.00 or worse.  The question becomes did traders ride on Icahn's coattails this year? Of course they did because it was a huge investment and it started the current move back up.  At the same time I doubt that it was what made it go ballistic, that "blame" lies with the traders who chased it.

So the question is not how Icahn may have screwed investors.  The question is more like did the investors and/or their advisers keep track and manage their money well?  In truly free markets, investors of all sizes have a right to make money as they have a right to preserve it also, without needing permission. Of course today with all the regulations, that's not totally the case. We have "permission" to trade the markets depending on certain rules for our "protection", but nevertheless, it's traders like us who move the markets, lucky for investors and us.

The bottom line is that traders drive stocks up by chasing and traders drive stocks down by chasing also. If you can't admit that to yourself than get out of the markets.

It's Up to You by The Jayhawks on Grooveshark

 Happy Trading, Living and Dancing,

The Daily Pick - $NFLX

©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved

Monday, October 21, 2013

The Daily Note - 'Tis the Season $AAPL $AMZN $CMG $BIDU $LNKD $NFLX $PCLN

*****'Tis the 4th quarter earnings season of course, which is like Halloween, Thanksgiving and Christmas all rolled into one.

It's Halloween when we let other people scare us about it. Because in trading as in life:  Caution is a friend, Fear is an enemy.   Unfortunately a lot a traders/investors don't do enough homework which means that they have to trust someone else's opinion more than they trust themselves. This includes the broker/ advisors whom we pay and follow. Even if we don't follow markets daily we should know what our money is doing so a monthly checkup will keep monsters away and educate us as well as our broker.

It's Thanksgiving when we know we're on the right side of the trade, and our investments are doing well. It's when we also have trusted our targets for profit taking and manage our stops wisely. On a draw-down, you'll be thanking your diligence; on a breakout you'll be doing the same because if we know what we're looking for, surprises will be the positive kind and we all know that, no matter how much work we do, often this job can seem thankless.

It's Christmas when we have earnings that surprise with "beat the street" gifts like $GOOG, $CMG last week and $NFLX today with monster breakout gains that leave us in wonder and thank our lucky star. We earned it!

Come to think of it, if we all do our homework, we could enjoy these "holidays" four times a year, not just one.

Oogie Boogie's Song by Elfman, Danny on Grooveshark

Happy Spooking, Thanking & Prancing

©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved

Thursday, October 17, 2013

The Daily Note - A Good Day for Meditating ~ $DJIA, $SPX, $NDX

*****It seems that the markets were moving the past couple of days but when closer inspected it was moving in place. Washington is in deadlock,and anticipation for a solution is palpable, yet all the optimism and pessimism in the world will not convince good traders to jump in when waters are murky.

Meanwhile earnings are being reported, disappointment not forgiven. Some are dumped,  others are pumped  on matters of revenue, earnings and outlook. When looking at history or remembering from past results as such, "tomorrow" it may be all reversed, depending on the whim and thoughts of one analysis or another; in other words, business as usual.

Washington games are being played as usual as well, in the end not much will change unless we allow real leadership to emerge, or, I wrote last, unless we change. It is amazing why not more of us shout out about the dangers of raising debt limits after seeing how the debt tends to meet the limit rather than the limit capping the debt for so many years. Is that too cerebral? If it is than we will never understand what  another trillion $ debt means. It may help perhaps, to ask yourself:  when the last time you could raise your own debt limit without worry?

For one, you can't raise your own debt limit. You are only allowed to raise it if the lender allows you to have it and believe me they check your ability to repay before granting such. Second, why would you wish to be in such high debt?  A debt which you have is no chance of you repaying in your own lifetime is sheer slavery of your own making.

Last I remember, slavery was long ago outlawed.  So then why are we allowing the government to make slaves of us by raising our debt limit and spending it without worry?  Taxing us into the future equates such a fate, in my opinion, and even if you don't feel the taxation part, you feel the inflation part of the "bargain".

So the markets meandered today as if uncertain, as if not being ready for the next "surprise". Oh come on now, we know that no one makes a move unless certain of the outcome! Isn't that right Washington, isn't that right traders?  So then, why make moves when markets are uncertain?

Yes, it was a good day for meditating and you can see it in the results.

This Sacred Land by Ah*Nee*Mah on Grooveshark

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

The Outlook Update $DJIA $SPX $NDX

©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved

Monday, October 14, 2013

The Weekly Outlook - It's the Government We Deserve ~ $DJIA $SPX $NDX

*****If anything, I'm anticipating a difficult week. Not for traders but for all the predictors, analysts and commentators. They will have their analysis based on last week only to need to change it based on the next move on the  market. After many years of listening it still amuses me how much they can talk and question so little.

Reasons are given and taken as if they were written in the Heavens and the ones that don't fit the theory are discarded as unimportant. Questioning is no longer in vogue. Having read, hundreds of tweets, listened to hundreds of commentators, I find that none wish to be questioned but only listened to; or better said, none want a real conversation. Just like what is happening in our government today, where not many want to discuss or consider what their elected purpose is. Following reality of any situation is out of the question  yet they threaten the very people that got them into that powerful office with shutouts/shutdowns thereby feeling  their power as more important than their oath to follow the written Constitution.  They dismiss questions, if a real question is even asked them anymore;  they hide from discussions, state opinions as gospel and they use their own self-importance as reason for it all.

We too are full of opinions we want to voice. We tweet and blog all over the universe wishing for a response but seldom for a real discussion. Mainly we look for those who will agree with us and praise us. Discussions are rare and excuses are usually the lack of time, yet we pass information which is most often accepted as real or for a fact. In short, questioning has become unimportant.

The markets all over the world wait in anticipation and react in anticipation according to the whims of these leaders. Markets rise and dive according to opinions that may or may not be accurate even if true.  It's no wonder that the saying fits: "Each nation deserves the government it gets." Which means that in the USA, we get what we voted for and in my opinion we vote for representatives who most likely reflect our current nature and behavior.

Joseph de Maistre also wrote that "All grandeur, all power, all subordination to authority rests on the executioner".  Namely, us. Perhaps when we all start taking responsibility for what we say, how we behave and who we are, then perhaps we will start electing officials who can reflect those qualities back to us.

Half the Perfect World by Madeleine Peyroux on Grooveshark

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

The Weekly Outlook -  $DJIA $SPX $NDX

©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved

Thursday, October 10, 2013

The Daily Note - House Games or Reality Watch $DJIA $SPX $NDX

*****Whether it's House (Congress) games or reality always be careful of  long awaited news announcements. Especially at these times trade it well and carefully.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing,

The Outlook Update - $DJI $SPX $NDX

 ©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved

Tuesday, October 8, 2013

The Weekly Outlook - Patterns and Reasons ~ $DJIA $SPX $NDX

*****When markets rise and when they fall, followers look for a reason or for reasons. The bigger the rise, or fall the more people tweet, write and talk about why and the wherefore of its rise or demise.   Actually, in my opinion,  it was already foretold in the charts and reasons are searched for after the fact while patterns largely ignored.  So the question is do patterns follow reasons or reasons follow the patterns?

Perhaps we have been duped into not seeing the obvious, over time, in order to keep everyone interested in our opinion.  Perhaps it was ingrained in us since babyhood when our parents kept naming reasons for every move or function we did as if it was a long unknown mystery never seen prior to our birth. Even though patterns of behavior have been known about babies and children and occur the same way most of the time.

You may argue that each baby and child is unique and you are correct again, I agree, but still the patterns of growth and development are played out regardless of that fact. Rarely do they make a different turn in which case reasons are seriously needed, but until then, reasons are the patterns and nothing more.

If it were not for patterns and the usual scenario with them, we could not function as a society nor would there be order in chaos. We all agree to behave in a certain way in a certain situation. That is a pattern. and we don't look for reasons for them in our everyday lives. We grow and develop and age in a pattern. When someone does it differently or acts a.b. normally (thanks Young Frankenstein) we notice and then we ever more look for the reason until we're satisfied and perhaps put it in yet another pattern box.

So each time a pattern plays out in our day to day living and acts as we expect, all is well in our lives and our world, unless we're traders and follow the markets in which case, each move within or without the pattern has to be analyzed as a new born baby.

Reasons Why by Nickel Creek on Grooveshark

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

 The Weekly Outlook $DJIA $SPX $NDX

©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved

Friday, October 4, 2013

The Daily Note - Can't Fear a Mistake $AAPL $AMZN $CMG $LNKD $NFLX

*****Living life in fear will actually make you do more mistakes than if you takes chances. It really depends on where you put trust in your judgement; from the head or from the heart (or gut). I say you have to follow your heart/gut otherwise you'll judge yourself in hindsight. In other words, you view the possible when you take chances, and you view the impossible when you see what was possible in hindsight.

How often have you seen the charts of AAPL AMZN CMG LNKD NFLX which I follow and update on my PlayList daily? How often have you thought it impossible that it will go higher, thinking from your head and how often have you wished you listened to your heart/gut ?

Wishful thinking is hindsight in large part and it will actually create fear looking forward. In other words, you won't see it as possible, making it less likely that you will take that chance. Hindsight only reveals your fear of making a mistake and an excuse to reinforce your negative judgement of yourself, creating more fear for action. Instead, chances are taken from the heart not the head and chances actually are the actions you seek to make your dreams & plans come true. Chances you take actually reveal results quicker and allow for adjustments leading to the right path faster than any long term thinking.  Note that I said long term thinking, not planning which is different.

Long term thinking is taking a long time to analyze an action, therefore delaying action, which allows only for hindsight. Hindsight actually reveals your fear of making a mistake, but don't beat yourself up for you will only reinforce that fear, rather, give yourself credit for noticing it. Then, remember that, noticing something, or awareness, is the first step for action or change. Embrace it, accept it and make taking a chance possible because change can't happen while fearing a mistake.

Crossroads by Calvin Russell on Grooveshark

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved

Tuesday, October 1, 2013

The Weekly Outlook - From Wishing to Seeing ~ $DJIA $SPX $NDX

*****Have you noticed that change seems to take long time to achieve, but what if I told you that change depends not on the time but on action. It's no surprise I'm sure and you think I'm stating the obvious, but then why do you think things move so slowly. Or as the aphorism states : I used to be different but now I'm the same. Truth is change will  happen with action but prior to action there is preparation or perhaps better stated .. awareness, acceptance and then action. It's the awareness and acceptance which take a long time.

First we have to be aware that change needs to take place, then we have to accept what that change needs to be in our thinking or behavior and then we can decide on the action to make it effective or for it to take effect.

Now carry that a bit further and realize that we cannot expect for things to change without all of us going through the process whether small or large. In short, Government will not change unless we do. Hence another aphorism stating : If you want things to change, change yourself.

What a concept! Now try viewing the charts from that point of view. In other words, see what is, accept it and then you can act according to what it is. Changing your trading habits from wishing to seeing is a big step toward being successful in trading.

Key to the Highway by Dave Hole on Grooveshark

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

The Weekly Outlook -  $DJIA  $SPX $NDX

 ©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved