Sunday, October 26, 2014

The Weekly Market Outlook - Enthusiast vs Skeptic

***** Tough week ahead in my opinion. Maybe the enthusiasm will lead us into a strong V shape recovery then again, maybe there'll be a pause. Your "guess" may be better than mine, I can just be ready for the possible and here is how I see it.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2014 All Rights Reserved

Sunday, October 19, 2014

The Weekly Market Outlook - Bottoms Up? Maybe Not

*****The market deep drop last week was viewed by some as a surprising sudden move. Those perhaps who have listened to my outlook reports may know that the shift actually began in September. What is next will be determined by trader and investment mood more so than earnings in my opinion.

If we are to trust that earnings are getting better and the economy is improving well, we may look at the current events as bottoms. Yet I would not be so quick to asses it so because it's been 2 years that we had a true test of these levels and a pullback of such severity usually gets tested again before a bottom is determined. In fact I believe that Friday's gap up and bounce, which got its momentum from the housing report, may have been also in anticipation of this coming week's earnings reports so earnings misses or outlook shifts may drop it with equal momentum once again.

So far we've had a mixture of up and down guidance from reports and as I  mentioned before, the end of year positioning is not yet over, in fact it's just getting into full swing. Therefore more fluctuation may become evident in the markets as we approach December.

Nevertheless, this week is in focus and on everyone's radar for now and watching what happens next will be more revealing perhaps than any other week ahead. So for now, this is what I see:

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

 The Daily Pick - ©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2014 All Rights Reserved

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

A Market Outlook Update - And Next Market Possibilities $DJIA $NDX $SPX

*****Even as we are prepared for the possible, we can also be surprised at how quickly it can become actual.

The Market Outlook reports that I have been publishing for a few years have always felt like a channeling experience for me so when they become actual is not a surprise. I have always maintained that information from the Universe is Universal and available for all of us. Some may not think or feel that they are tapped in to the infinite information available, but I maintain that we are all connected and days like today in the markets prove to me it's true.

In the markets fluctuations are noticed and played all the time. Fluctuations are digestions of information consumed; it  is what takes the longest and it's where the charts show fluctuations pro and con. Accumulation of information gives direction to the markets, and when a majority agrees to the same scenario, the market moves rapidly in one direction toward the next possible target. The direction is unmistakable, be it up or down.  It is what happened today.

There can be slow accumulation, like the past 6 years of upside movement in the markets, but it is not a total agreement as each information had to have time to be digested and eliminated if need be; much like the acceptance of bad economic reports. The past 2 years however demonstrated a consensus toward the upside without checks or tests; the fear of a possible downside ebbed, then steadily accumulated in the far reaches of our Universal mind.

The thought of a downside remained checked until the past two weeks when it surfaced once again to be considered for acceptance or rejection. We saw rapid fluctuations as a result of those Universal debates, until today when a consensus was reached. So, what happened today was the result of the conscious and unconscious Universal agreement to the scenario.

 What can happen next, will also require a consensus, be it knee jerk or a long thought out process, eventually we will arrive to reach an agreed to goal once more.

My Weekly Market Outlooks are available to be viewed here on my blog and they are also always available to view and re-view to the public on my VoiceThread .

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2014 All Rights Reserved

Monday, October 13, 2014

The Weekly Market Outlook - $DJIA $SPX $NDX View Toward the Short and Longer Term

  ***** Major earnings reports kick off this week and will influence the markets resulting in possible further quick tests of highs and lows.

More volatility may come from earnings reports and outlooks. Profits and positioning will continue to play into the mix as a result.  On the other hand, a calming effect may come from attentions focused away from the markets and on the coming holidays.

It is important to keep in mind not only the short term but longer term possibilities that the charts are now showing. I cover these this week not to suggest that it will play out in the next few days, but to point out the larger canvas on which we paint success.  So look forward (and back) to monthly possibilities along with the current events.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved

Wednesday, October 8, 2014

The Daily Note - Similar Patterns = Similar Possibilities

*****I often use past history in order to predict current outcomes. That does not mean that the past is written in the stone of the present since we always have choice to change the outcome, but people tend to follow patterns therefore any chart will reflect that tendency.

Think of patterns as beat or rhythm in music and think of dancing as steps to the rhythm or beat of the music. Regardless of which dance we choose, we follow a pattern around the dance floor be it the sidewalk or hardwood. A waltz will make a circular motion not unlike planets (the couple dancing) swirling around the sol or an imaginary sun using a large dance floor. A line dance will take an orderly line form with each individual doing the same step left, right, forward and back.  In each case, even if an individual adds their own twist to the steps within the group, the pattern remains constant to the beat.

Likewise, The Tango and the Break Dance performed on the sidewalk will not look the same, yet each is danced with equal passion to the rhythm of the music.  Both dances may be spontaneously started by dancers moved by street musicians,  yet each has a certain historical expectation of steps the performers will generate. In other words, one does not try to Break Dance to a Tango or vice versa.

The watchers of dances and dancers are the audience who add to the expected outcome. It is because they perform vicariously with the activity that they add to support the expected steps the dancers will take, thereby supporting the current direction of the dance.  If a dancer switches from the waltz to hip hop, it may be shocking whereupon one audience may leave and another group may gather and join in supporting the dancer's direction.

So it is on the chart. Each day has its beat and rhythm the traders may like and join.. Each day brings a change to the beat or just the tempo be it fast or slow, but no matter what the dance, there will always be an expected performance direction and an audience supporting the "dance".

Although on a chart a low number of trades begin the pattern, as more traders join, the watchers grow and  the expectation will create a momentum. Once the current "dance" ends and another tune begins perhaps having a different rhythm, the original followers may leave the dance floor and become the watchers of the new group.

All dances added together create fluctuations and make up the chart patterns. Traders may come and go, the tempo may increase and decrease, but the desire to participate or watch will not change and the patterns on a stock chart will generally perform to their own rhythm and historically expected steps.

In the chart below,  $NQ_F Shows a similar pattern we have today from February 5th completing April 15th with a bounce on March 27 to April 2nd before dropping to finish the pattern.  The question is where are we on this current chart? Did we already have the bounce or are we about to have one?  Therein lies the choice for participants of this dance.

$NQ_F Similar Pattern Study

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

The Daily Pick ~ Nice Dancing :)

©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2014 All Rights Reserved

Monday, October 6, 2014

The Weekly Market Outlook - Recovering or In Need of More Tests?

*****Last week's volatility may not have surprised my readers and listeners but if it surprised you, welcome to my outlook where I  look to the past to see into the future, not with a crystal ball but with an eye to patterns and possibilities they may produce.

Depending on our outlook, surprises can be pleasant or unpleasant but what we need to admit about them is that we did not prepare well enough for the possibility.

Although we can expect some recovery, we also have to remember that the earnings reports are about to get into full swing. Along with reports come expectations, surprises and sell-offs. Selling may increase due to the end of the year profit taking  and buying will become more active due to positioning into the next year. Therefore swings in stocks may become wider. So, allowing  for wider swings both ways and preparing for the possibility, we may avoid the unpleasant task of last minute decisions or big surprises.

Here is what I see for this week and perhaps beyond:

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

The Daily Pick - ©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2014 All Rights Reserved