Monday, February 9, 2015

My Daily Notes - Patterns and Surprises

*****There 's no doubt that any news event can trigger a surprising action in the markets. What is often forgotten however, is that much of the so called "news" that triggers the market action is most often already anticipated.

I'm not speaking of sudden disasters, but I'm speaking of news events that are often enough discussed, but not necessarily known. The patterns tend to actually foretell these better because, on the whole, people are waiting for the news. In short, the so called "news" is anticipated and financial institutions, market brokers, traders, are ready to act quickly on the announcement.  Real surprises very seldom happen; in fact in the last sixteen years I can only remember two. Real surprises will take the market up or down rapidly and in unison, locally and globally. They tend to tear markets apart so I am all for keeping those to a minimum.

Often we'll see anticipation in the patterns not knowing exactly whether it will fail or continue, but we can certainly plan for their direction according to historical and usual behavior.

The $DJIA ended Friday at a point of indecision rising higher once it broke above the 17428 I mentioned last Monday.  Now looking to possibly test the 18k and the high of December, but it may be a harder sell in this environment to keep it at that level.  Watch the 17890 to 17950 area as resistance points. Testing the 17660 is also possible once it breaks down the 17745. We also have to keep in mind that in this environment, 200+ point ranges are not surprising. So certainly  they can be anticipated.

Pattern on the $NDX  suggest possible breakdown below the 4215 even with the 4200 support to the 4175 level. A higher trend will need to wait for topping 4275 and will have a struggle unless it can break above and hold the 4300 at which time the 4325 to 4350 become possible.

Next, the $SPX has a challenge to top the 2072 with much needed faith in being able to hold and reach for the 2080 and then to a possible high test. It will also have to hold the 2040 and 2020 levels.

The struggle is evident in all charts as faith is being tested at these levels, so let's hope for no surprises.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2015  All Rights Reserved

Sunday, February 1, 2015

My Daily Notes - Outlook on Post SuperBowl Monday

*****Watching the opening of the $ES_F March futures, the picture has not changed. This pattern the M once completed usually reverses and test somewhere in the middle. But there is a larger picture forming .. the reverse H & S which is the next possible play.

The $DJIA overall still holds the key: Hesitation or a possible draw-down challenge. Can it hold the supports or will it succumb the 17135 area in which case th 17000 will come into question. Of course the 17428 will have to be topped for a reversal.

The S&P500 ($SPX) has the 1988 but the 1972 is likely to be tested, below that we'll have a possible larger pattern to complete.

All eyes are on the bouncy ball of the $NDX, take a look at the daily chart. Its darling, $AAPL, has come in with great earnings, yet the finish is not certain with all the other techs under scrutiny. Watch for tighter support bounces and resistance tops before the breakout/breakdown can be predicted.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2015 All Rights Reserved

Thursday, January 29, 2015

My Daily Notes ~ $ES_F $DJIA $SPX $NDX

***** Watching the $ES_F futures complete the pattern Thursday, the predictable bounce took place reaching both the low and high target price. Expecting hesitation at the resistance on the high, but this pattern would usually go higher in the coming days.

The $DJIA is what gives us pause with the double bottom reaching lower with the tail. Although it recovered on Thursday, it too is now at major resistance and possible top, and there could be a test lower to the 17060 area, with a possible lower breakdown, but it's too soon to tell. For now, concentrate mainly on the resistance and bottom bars of the past two days.,

$SPX  and $ES_F is much alike of course, but above the trendline it may get enough support to stay aloft. Watch the 2000 on this one.

Finally with the $NDX at trendline resistance, I'd watch for a possible test of the 4090 level.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2015 All Rights Reserved

My Note on a New Year and Market Volatility

*****After more than seven (7) years writing this Blog,  sixteen (16 ) years trading the markets, watching the charts, I felt I already said it all and I was repeating myself.  I grew tired and almost gave up, but I could not check out completely as my interest has not diminished as much as my energy had.  So, rather than quitting I decided to take time off instead. Unannounced and unplanned but often those are the best kind of vacations. Planning requires expectations, whereas spontaneity requires quick creation and traders have to know how to use both.

Watching as the markets defied gravity, pushing higher last year, I was writing about the cloud fantasy in the making long before the idea caught on with the rest of the world, yet trading the reality of what was actually happening. I played both the pessimist and the optimist in my outlooks which is never easy but it's part of being a trader. The solution I thought would be a serious correction leading to finally allowing the markets to develop as they were meant to be, without government manipulation, but alas that was and is not to be.

Of course overloading eventually makes for top heavy situation yet one never really knows which exact "straw" breaks it down; hence the extreme volatility we are experiencing. Perhaps leaving those unaccustomed to such things bewildered, but in reality it was inevitable.

Truth is that charts show the possibility ahead of time and usually live up to the expectation, regardless of reasons expounded upon later. Charts also show how spontaneity also works for traders because in between the bigger pattern, the same patterns play out daily on a smaller scale.  Allowing for the use of both planning and spontaneity prepares us for the best of all possibilities, which I have often written and talked about here, on this blog, and seems will continue to do so.

Happy and Continued Trading, Living and Dancing

©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2015 All Rights Reserved