Sunday, November 27, 2011

The Daily Note - I'll Have Some Rosé with That

It should be easy to find a topic that will provide insight about the moves of the markets. It was easy when it was "logical" or at least much more logical than today. I look at the futures and see 155+ points up in the positive. I read the world's leading news and it's reporting dismal outlook in the Euro Area, the IMF's commitment of more money down the drain, and of course the wonderful news that the US employment picture looking more like Europe's. Now, there is a reason to cheer! So what is this euphoria?

The only positive news is the record spending on Black Friday. Well now, that is going to save the economy, a one day spending binge ought to give enough of a shot in the arm that all will be well. Are people betting on doing better next year to pay back what they charged this year? Are they betting on better jobs, and increase in pay? Does anyone have a clue? I won't rule out that they instinctively know something. It is also true that we, as humans, want to hang on to the positive regardless of cost to our well being in the long term and it's often what is happening and what is being reflected in the markets. Any good news is good news and any bad news is temporary and fixable. The only problem with that thought, however, is that if it's so fixable, why haven't they already addressed and fixed it?

No matter how much they try to put a rosy light on the issue, you better accompany their explanation with a good bottle of Rosé to make it believable. There is a positive note in that: You'll end up feeling rosy regardless of the news and you may actually see some sense in what they write.

Recently, however, when looking and numerous charts there is one clearer picture; that being the fast sell off in the last 7 trading days. Relentless drops and unloads were happening and if we are going to have a rally from the Black Friday news, it may only be a temporary relief.

So rather than being logical about any of this, let's try some old fashioned "trade what you see not what you wish", which is exactly what you should be doing regardless of the futures numbers or the news.

Crackling Rose by Neil Diamond on Grooveshark

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

The Daily Pick - $DJIA Outlook

©DayTrading with Anni 2011 All Rights Reserved

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

A Special Note -A Special Thanksgiving Day

Each year here in the USA we have a special day unlike any other known anywhere else in the world. It is our unique holiday this giving thanks day. It is not only to give thanks for the abundance in our lives that God has blessed upon us, but also to commemorate the first Thanksgiving day celebrated by the Pilgrims, after overcoming hardships suffered by the first settlers from the old world to the new.

Thanks was given not only for survival but also for an abundant crop as well as new friendships formed with the Indians who helped the newcomers to settle in the new land.

I have something in common with those first settlers, as it was on Thanksgiving Day that my family arrived to this new land and was welcomed to settle in this our new country, the USA. Each year we give thanks for our new opportunity for a free life in this land, each year we remember how warmly we were welcomed, how much open help we received from people who knew nothing about us, but nonetheless gave us love and friendship.

We may grumble from day to day about the markets or conditions that we may find hard, but remember those who have overcome challenges much more difficult and smiled in the end. Also remember that, no matter how lucky you feel or how well you do, someone else helped in making your dreams come true.

So each and every day, and especially on Thanksgiving Day:
Give thanks for what you have, give thanks to those you know and don't forget to thank God.

Great Pumpkin Waltz by Vince Guaraldi on Grooveshark

Thanks to all my readers, followers and members!
Have a Happy and Abundant Thanksgiving Day

The Daily Pick -

©DayTrading with Anni 2011 All Rights Reserved

Monday, November 14, 2011

The Daily Note - End of Year Watch

As trading goes, the end of the year is when positions are evaluated, losers are let go, winners kept and planning for the new year takes place. Tax planning is an important strategy often overlooked by the amateur trader but it's important now to evaluate your possible tax liability in order to take best advantage of saving. It is not true that loopholes are bad. What is true is that you only have to pay what you legally owe. So planning your tax is vitally important in order to keep the legal amount to a minimum.

Trading at this time period relaxes and is usually slow because many turn their attention toward holiday celebrations and family. Which also spells parties, travel and fun therefore it also means that people tend to lose their inhibitions as the winter solstice sets in. What would normally mean a pulling within, for many it's time to demonstrate goodwill, enjoy celebration of a good year and sharing abundance.

So as you look for traders at this time, traditionally many turn their attention to retail, travel and electronics and also credit which takes a seat along side of retail. Those who have not saved and wish they had will not hesitate to borrow when it comes to good will giving. Hence holiday shopping becomes important. Inventories are closely watched, and shopping malls and internet shopping sites are monitored for attendance daily.

You too, take a pause, reflect, review and plan the rest of your year. As a day, swing or short term trader, if you have reached your goal for the year, it is good to use this time to review your strategy, try out a new one, observe and study and plan your next year. It is also a good time for lessons, so why not take advantage of a few.

Absolutely Me by Caro Emerald on Grooveshark

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

The Daily Pick - $NDX

©DayTrading with Anni 2011 All Rights Reserved

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

The Daily Note - OK Bernanke or "Dear Fed"

I haven't written before nor do I like listening to your Fed reports and I have successfully avoided it mostly because read enough to know what is happening and don't need your interpretation. Nor do I need to listen to the "probing" and droll questioning from the media. I am factitious, of course. But now that I listened attentively to both, I have this conclusion. Do you honestly believe people can do as you say while you work against them?

Let ME be clear. In your words, you advise people to manage their own "financial stability" also that there is a stable 2% inflation. 2% adjusted how? How do you account for food or energy costs rising by about 20%? Do you balance the 20% more people pay for food and energy with the 20% deflation of their net worth? (which for most is their homes if they can still pay the mortgages)  You're also saying that the unemployment will not improve nor the economy until about 2014 and that it's not your job to create jobs but the fed does its best to create them. Huh?  You acknowledge that the low interest rates do not help people yet you want them to save regardless of 0% returns, and on what remains in their pockets they should invest. OK I won't argue about investing, but let's face it; the growth and profits companies are able to post this year is without worry about rising health costs of Obama care or costs associated with hiring employees. In other words their profits  definitely include the fact that they have less employees and that it's not yet 2012.

 You also say that you and rest of commissioners are seeking ways to be more clear so you can be better understood by the public.

Should not be hard.  Take two coffee cans and demonstrate it thus: in can number 1,  put the money you receive and into can numnber 2  move the amount you owe to all the people you borrowed from. What is left in can #1? Nada, Nothing,  Rien, Nichts, Semmi, since Congress owes more than it takes in. So what do you do with the problem child who spends too much? You, the overseer & the regulator,  print fake money to keep it from whining.  And you keep filling up the can with more from where? Certainly not real funds earned. You fill it up with fake money that you can print without real accounting, to your heart's desire and call it "good."

On the other hand  us regular folks have to go out and earn those nothing dollars, you print, with our own ingenuity in order to survive. Why? There is no real value behind those printed dollars, almost 0% interest if we put it aside to be worth probably less in a year. Are you beginning to get the picture? The picture that became the problem before WWII?  The less a dollar's worth the less it can buy. No growth of money earned  will not solve the problem for the people and will not encourage savings or investing.

My guess is that you know all that but for some reason you stick to the idea that what was done in the 1930's was good despite evidence to the contrary that it actually created the hyper inflation in Europe, as it was worse there. People forget (if they ever studied it) that the depression then was worse in Europe then, just as it is now.  Get it yet? History repeats, man, history repeats no matter how you want to deny it.

Want to solve this one fast? Raise interest rates because that way people will earn something and will be more willing to save it in banks, which will free up the banks to lend, which will allow for investing and new production and hiring.  You know it right? If not what are you doing in your position in the first place?

Next, insist on bringing back the gold standard, not confiscate it like back in the '30s depression when the gold standard was dropped. Oh yes, that was really smart as we can see evidence of it today. Many confuse the issue but the gold standard was dropped in the 30's while silver backing was kept until Nixon took it off in the 1960's. End of any backing in currencies, be it Euro, Dollar, Yen or rocks, you have basically nothing valuable. You only have a say so on a promise that is seldom kept since we know what  it means when politicians promise, Right?

 So I ask you why are you taking us down the path of stagnation, deflation of earnings and production & price inflation? The math is much too complicated, many bugs in the system can mess things up and truth is harder to find when convoluted. So, which is purpose?

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

©DayTrading with Anni 2011 All Rights Reserved