Sunday, November 27, 2011

The Daily Note - I'll Have Some Rosé with That

It should be easy to find a topic that will provide insight about the moves of the markets. It was easy when it was "logical" or at least much more logical than today. I look at the futures and see 155+ points up in the positive. I read the world's leading news and it's reporting dismal outlook in the Euro Area, the IMF's commitment of more money down the drain, and of course the wonderful news that the US employment picture looking more like Europe's. Now, there is a reason to cheer! So what is this euphoria?

The only positive news is the record spending on Black Friday. Well now, that is going to save the economy, a one day spending binge ought to give enough of a shot in the arm that all will be well. Are people betting on doing better next year to pay back what they charged this year? Are they betting on better jobs, and increase in pay? Does anyone have a clue? I won't rule out that they instinctively know something. It is also true that we, as humans, want to hang on to the positive regardless of cost to our well being in the long term and it's often what is happening and what is being reflected in the markets. Any good news is good news and any bad news is temporary and fixable. The only problem with that thought, however, is that if it's so fixable, why haven't they already addressed and fixed it?

No matter how much they try to put a rosy light on the issue, you better accompany their explanation with a good bottle of Rosé to make it believable. There is a positive note in that: You'll end up feeling rosy regardless of the news and you may actually see some sense in what they write.

Recently, however, when looking and numerous charts there is one clearer picture; that being the fast sell off in the last 7 trading days. Relentless drops and unloads were happening and if we are going to have a rally from the Black Friday news, it may only be a temporary relief.

So rather than being logical about any of this, let's try some old fashioned "trade what you see not what you wish", which is exactly what you should be doing regardless of the futures numbers or the news.

Crackling Rose by Neil Diamond on Grooveshark

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

The Daily Pick - $DJIA Outlook

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