Monday, September 29, 2014

The Weekly Market Outlook - A Lookout for Bears and the Taxman

*****This week will be telling about the market sentiment going into the 4th quarter. Further wild fluctuations are possible as is the pulling in of the horns by the bulls. Not necessarily giving up or giving in, the bulls would probably prefer to just throw up some dust whilst eying whence danger, if any, is coming.

Protecting our health and interest is the obligation of all of us for ourselves because without us being healthy we can't take care of others. Thus holding on to gains, keeping it on close watch and nearer to our pockets is not greedy but wise especially when markets are looking as if they could turn.

Yet it's not always that simple because we also have to add into the equation the Taxman (IRS for short). If not calculated properly this bite may be worse than a Bear's, so sales of our holdings have to be carefully calculated to do us no harm.  Hopefully we all do our tax planning at the beginning of the year and not the end thus making the end of year decisions more simple but for those who have not, a consultation or at least a study of capital gains consequences may be crucial to keeping healthy and wealthy.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
The Weekly Market Outlook - $DJIA $SPX $NDX

©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2014 All Rights Reserved

Thursday, September 25, 2014

The Daily Note - Quarter End Profits and Market SellOff

*****See an excuse at the end of a quarter, but especially at the end of the 3rd quarter,  and profits will be taken, slump created from which  new opportunities are formed ... in time. Simply put, from the ashes, phoenix rises.

Given today's $AAPL news it's not surprising that institutions may be taking off positions. How much is the bigger question which will reveal itself in time.  Opportunity will be bought; It's like a phoenix, you can't kill this bird.

But today was not so much about $AAPL as it was about the end of the 3rd quarter and the end of the year scenario beginning to be played. Sell for profits, and minimize tax gains, buy back before the end of year,  for next year profits and do it so no wash sale rule applies. Hence the all important 30 day absence creates a slump after which enough time for opportunity to be formed.

When markets slump or quickly rise, watching levels of support and resistance become even more important because they become the opposite markers on the reverse. Spending time on charts and studying levels pays off in the long run because one does not have to time the top and the bottom, but can recognize direction change more easily and perhaps with better timing.

These were my comments today, Thursday Mid-Day :

$DJIA A bit of a challenge: could we bounce from here? Watch the 16950 support / 17010 resistance 
$SPX Ask yourself: Are institutions/pros taking profits before 3rd quarter end? Watch support 1960-1961
$NDX watch the 4011 then 4000 support : IF we keep bottom then 4040 is bounce upside resistance
Below, Thursday's results and Friday outlook: 
DJIA closed at 16945.80 with same low and which now has potential of testing previous 16932 but also becomes vulnerable to 16900 and 16855 and 16800 test for support
SPX closed1965.99   with same low  so it has potential of breaking lower to support
NDX closed at 4007.82  low of 4007.63  and which broke down the 4011 now has the potential of testing the 4000 low 
So, Trade it well and carefully!

The Daily Pick - ©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved

Sunday, September 21, 2014

The Weekly Market Outlook - $DJIA $SPX $NDX 22 Sept 2014

*****Traders, after holding breath for a few days waiting for the FOMC, let out a sigh of relief which bounced the markets once more to reach highs.  Not much more to it than that.

This coming week is the last of the 3rd quarter, so once more we look forward to the analysts opinions about earnings and what is to come in the 4th quarter to end another year of  positive gains and wonders. After which earnings season once again descends, positioning, tax strategies begin and soon the year will end.

But before I run away with thoughts too far ahead, listen to what my current thoughts are about the possibilities in the week ahead. Then take pleasure in the end of an Indian Summer and welcome the Fall(ing) leaves.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2014 All Rights Reserved

Sunday, September 14, 2014

The Weekly Market Outlook - $DJIA $SPX $NDX & The Recovery

*****Markets are sitting on a decision point. I say point, because the more uncomfortable it becomes on the tush the more likely that it will move somewhat violently one way of another.

The truth is we cannot continually excuse the bad news to be OK news. We cannot continually say that this is the only market that there is where people will put their money to invest; and we cannot continually think that  we are in a robust economy when earnings expectations meet or exceed a lowered expectation.

I don't wish to throw any wet blankets on anyone or anything, but evidence is actually to the contrary. We are at best sputtering.  Even though this is the only market that people can continually rely on to invest, the much too often talked about sidelines money from the citizenry is going to meeting living expenses and not  not waiting for the right time to enter. Evidence is that the jobs market may actually reduce not increase much in large due to ObamaCare. Evidence is that the government is not only  increasing income taxes, but adding other taxes that are hidden, in everyday life.  Also, evidence is that inflation for you and my living expenses are on the rise at much higher than 2.2% .

Inflation is not measured by the government as it actually effects us. Maybe inflation is not so much evident in your gas or energy cost or your interest cost (yet).  But it's hugely evident in your food cost, your entertainment cost, your travel cost, your health care cost, and even your parking meter cost.

But the largest evidence that we are not nearly in a robust recovery as we'd like, is in the wage increase data. Yes, you read that right. When wages don't increase across the board (unless compelled by the government) it means that the people are not going to do much better than last year or the year before especially when compared to the cost of living increase (inflation).  Some people point to "bonuses" being on the rise to employees and should be looked at as a wage increase. The trouble with that argument, aside from the reason it's done that way by companies, is that most employees don't get a bonus.

So, the big question of where we are really in this recovery, becomes more weighing on the markets as we keep pushing higher because low volume does not always mean everyone's happy where they are sitting.  In short, as I always say, "trade it well and carefully" my friends.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Visit my Trading List Services 

The Weekly Outlook #38 ~ 15 Sept. 2014

©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2014 All Rights Reserved

Thursday, September 11, 2014

The Daily Note ~ Look at Me, Not Your Watch $AAPL

*****I quit wearing a timepiece (watch) the day I left corporate life. Having worked for an airline compelled me to live by the minutes on a clock, so wearing a watch was mandatory. I still remember the feeling of removing it, setting it on my dresser and actually being relieved.  That was thirty years ago and I never wore another time piece since, nor have a ever had a need for one.

One thing that strikes me about this new and possible fashionable item for a new generation is the memory of seeing people constantly looking at and checking their watches. Like the smart-phones they were the nervous "tick" of the masses. It made people look important, to somebody, mostly themselves.  After all, if you look like your waiting for someone at a bar, you're not looking so desperate to meet someone new. Your ego's intact. It was also a signal of boredom, therefore rude, to look at your watch while you were conversing with someone.

Smart phones and tablets have become the wristwatches of yesteryear in the past decade.  It's even worse than a watch because it would have looked silly to talk to or keep adjusting a watch, but the use of a smart phone it has become a natural action.  In short, smart-phones have become relied upon as useful company as much as they have become mandatory for business and social interactions. After all, if you look like you're busy calling, texting, or messaging, you're don't look desperate for company.  Yet, it makes it even more difficult than looking at a watch to strike up a live conversation with the person next to you. When your eyes are on a screen busily interacting with "whoever" or "whatever" it shuts down eye contact with anyone live, but it keeps your ego intact.

Seems to me that doing the same with a watch as with a smart phone, we will have combined the two. A brand new generation of people will be endlessly looking at the screen on their wrist, taking away even more attention from their surroundings. At least with the smart-phone most use both hands and, at some point the phone was put away like for instance during a meal. A wristwatch, on the other hand (no pun), will always be available and seeing persons constantly looking at their watches will, indeed, look silly again to someone like me. Maybe worse if you're also signaling boredom coupled with rudeness when it's taking away attention from the person you're with, because a glance at a watch is far different from being engaged with one.  

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

The Daily Pick - $AAPL

©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2014 All Rights Reserved

Sunday, September 7, 2014

The Weekly Outlook - $DJIA $SPX $NDX Sept. 08, 2014

*****We are in the last month of the third quarter and what lays ahead can be both higher or lower.  Markets continue to push higher ignoring all negative news after it's digested. It makes for a look ahead higher with a weary eye toward a possible reverse. Weary or not however, I look at and for both.  I'm seeing the battle lines drawn and it's why I like to know about the possibilities of the next outcome.

Since none of us have a crystal ball, and my psychic abilities are limited with numbers, I'm forced to look at the markets this way.  I'm just one part of the masses who have collective control and so I prefer to be ready with the moves both ways. Whether  you are a long term, swing term or day trader,  determine setups for both long and short because it makes no difference about the direction when you know where you're going.

I force myself to think this way because I can be easily swayed by my own prejudices. If I believe that the world will end in the next week, my prejudice will show in my trading positions unless I don't allow myself to be so swayed. Therefore setups for both long and short entries, targets are based on the charts. Adjustments (if any) are based on market action, but never do I try to forget the possibilities initially seen. I usually regret if I do.

So, for the following week, this is what I see:

Happy trading, living and dancing

©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2014 All Rights Reserved

Wednesday, September 3, 2014

Small Studies for Trading and Life - Useful Use of Stops and Alerts

*****It's oft said that if you miss one train there's another one coming, which also applies to trades.  Trouble is that in trading, as in life, you never know which one will run you down. So always look for and  heed those stops!

Last Thursday I spoke about waiting for $AAPL.  Often we wait patiently for that next train (read trade) but too often we pace up and down on the platform looking at the time and thinking that it will pass us by and we'll never have the opportunity again. That is when the train whistle should blow loudly in our heads to alert us that we may jump before we think about our destination.

It is why when planning a trade look for best opportunities which have often occurred before. But before you get on that train, be sure to settle on your stops and destinations (targets).

It's also wise to set alerts so you know what's coming at you; lest you be run down by gravity. I bet you many people in $AAPL wished they'd done that today!

$AAPL Daily chart 3Sep14

Notice how the first test of support from last week was sliced through and the second support was tested; after which $AAPL closed just above the line. Also note that yesterday, for the first time $AAPL closed above the channel trend-line with a candle of indecision. Now watch for the 50% retrace test.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni The Daily Pick - ©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved

Monday, September 1, 2014

The Weekly Market Outlook ~ $DJIA $SPX $NDX - Sept.02, 2014

*****Market looks like it needs more than this past weekend to pause and rest although the futures look somewhat positive for the moment. There can be several reasons why we may be looking at a moderate to tight rise. Perhaps more investors are beginning to peel profits. Perhaps it's due to the uncertainty of the EU coupled with the strengthening of the $USD. Perhaps also due to the uncertainty of the Middle East's new threats to our security.

It's true that the USA is still the safest place to invest, yet there does not seem to be a strong inflow of funds for the time being. It may change going further into the month, but traditionally, it is also the last month of the 3rd quarter, and earnings season will be again soon upon us. Institutions will be looking for profits to report at the end of the year and positioning into holdings they may have missed or see further positive returns toward the end of the year.

So looking ahead this week, this is how I read the index charts:

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2014 All Rights Reserved