Thursday, September 25, 2014

The Daily Note - Quarter End Profits and Market SellOff

*****See an excuse at the end of a quarter, but especially at the end of the 3rd quarter,  and profits will be taken, slump created from which  new opportunities are formed ... in time. Simply put, from the ashes, phoenix rises.

Given today's $AAPL news it's not surprising that institutions may be taking off positions. How much is the bigger question which will reveal itself in time.  Opportunity will be bought; It's like a phoenix, you can't kill this bird.

But today was not so much about $AAPL as it was about the end of the 3rd quarter and the end of the year scenario beginning to be played. Sell for profits, and minimize tax gains, buy back before the end of year,  for next year profits and do it so no wash sale rule applies. Hence the all important 30 day absence creates a slump after which enough time for opportunity to be formed.

When markets slump or quickly rise, watching levels of support and resistance become even more important because they become the opposite markers on the reverse. Spending time on charts and studying levels pays off in the long run because one does not have to time the top and the bottom, but can recognize direction change more easily and perhaps with better timing.

These were my comments today, Thursday Mid-Day :

$DJIA A bit of a challenge: could we bounce from here? Watch the 16950 support / 17010 resistance 
$SPX Ask yourself: Are institutions/pros taking profits before 3rd quarter end? Watch support 1960-1961
$NDX watch the 4011 then 4000 support : IF we keep bottom then 4040 is bounce upside resistance
Below, Thursday's results and Friday outlook: 
DJIA closed at 16945.80 with same low and which now has potential of testing previous 16932 but also becomes vulnerable to 16900 and 16855 and 16800 test for support
SPX closed1965.99   with same low  so it has potential of breaking lower to support
NDX closed at 4007.82  low of 4007.63  and which broke down the 4011 now has the potential of testing the 4000 low 
So, Trade it well and carefully!

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