Saturday, May 30, 2009

Results for Trading List for Week of 5/26/09-5/29/09

5/30 VNO new to list, did not trigger this week
5/30 POT has a hart time with $117 couple of nice scalp trades on the intraday call, long and short
5/30 IBM finally showing some moves still like the $110-111 target.
5/30 BDN nice bounce off the $6 in channel finished well on Friday close at high side
5/30 GDX target of $44 hit on 5/29
5/30 FTO in the money move stop up to protect gains
5/29 4pm Preferring the pen to my charts, I made no trades today
5/28 2:24pm: MT hit target per chart @ $33.40 breaking above 33.55 may continue to gain $35.30 area. Take profits keep small for further upside, protect gains.
5/28 1:40 pm: POT long above 115.15 stop 114.10 flip for short (short below 114.10 stop 115.10)
5/27 3pm MT update: MT met resistance with the 200ma and now on a pullback.
5/27 new post: VNO thoughts: Supported by the 50day above the 42.50 mark looks to me that losing 42.50 will trigger drop about $40; on the long side above the $50 should trigger a move up toward the $55. On the high side see the trend line and top with the 200dma moving down to meet it..will be watching that point for strength and resistance.
5/27 1pm: POT losing $115 look for near $113 200dma on 15min
5/27 10:30am: POT trying to break thru 118 today lower volume today don't know if it can hold momentum; looks in consolidation on daily so watch for this to possibly fill gap on daily to 123 area

Friday, May 29, 2009

Slow Days of Summer

I made no trades today. Preferring my pen to my charts, I was drawn to write and log thoughts in several drafts, for later posting. I was actually scheduled to be in another part of the world today but since I had to cancel late last night, I was not really in a trading mood.

Market is slow and pensive today and it seems to reflect my mood. I think it's better this way since observing some charts as I write this, there are many stocks in a pause mode. Fridays seem to draw that out of late. What is nice is that there seems to be more observation going on rather than hurry or panic. I think it a good sign.

It is a good time for "Practicing Patience" ; it's time for a wait and see attitude. Time to reflect where we have been and where we are possibly heading. Our government has launched a rocket full of changes that I feel most of us have yet to reflect on and put the public and traders more in a reactive and conforming mode rather than in a reflective one. Some who have been wondering why the markets are doing well, have been frustrated for their logic but I think it's because we've been steamrolled into acceptance of things that we cannot possibly comprehend in such a short amount of time. So perhaps now what I'm reflecting is a desire to slow down. After all the lazy days of summer are upon us.

The collective consciousness is at work here in my opinion. A lot to digest some good and some not good but no matter which way we are going, to thine own self be true. Observe yourself; if it doesn't feel right, don't enter, don't jump, don't chase and don't run. Let your inner guide work here. I am reminded of another early article I wrote on the subject that may be appropriate for this mood. "A Different Feel"

No matter where you are it's good to remember that everything works in cycles and all will be resolved in time.

Happy Living and Trading!

Thursday, May 28, 2009

A Gem of a Bistro in the City by the Bay

Let me introduce myself this evening as a gastronome (it's nice to pretend) I'm not trying to be snooty but it's true that I love good food with good wine and it's not often that I voice my accolades publicly. Tonight, I cannot keep quiet about a very pleasurable experience at a "neighborhood gem" in the city of San Francisco, where although there are many wonderful places to sample, this restaurant is a must visit whether you are visiting or fortunate to live in the vicinity of SF.

I won't pretend to be a food critique writing about each entree, service or nuance of flavor.. ahh heck, why not?
Three of us dined there yesterday. Place, location chosen not because of recommendation but because of convenience, and because of the online description and menu. We made early reservations for my sake mainly and arrived at 6pm finding that it was empty. We were welcomed with warmth by manager Sang Ae Leblon, seated across from the bar underneath the blackboard for which this restaurant is named. We felt immediately cozy despite the fact that the place was empty except for us. Perusing the menu and the specials for the evening upon the blackboard, we dined!

There are many tempting dishes to try on the menu couple with the blackboard specials it was not an easy choice when one wants to try everything. We chose 2 entrees off the menu while the third, sweetbreads was a special blackboard special and we were not disappointed in anything we had.

Deciding on the escargot in parsley sauce to start our epicurean journey, they were served not in the shell but rather pocketed in potato halves. This is not your usual drowning in butter escargot! Tender and mild flavored delicious.

There are many tempting dishes to try on the menu and coupled with the blackboard specials it was not an easy choice when one wants to try everything. We chose 2 entrees from the menu while the third, the sweetbreads, was a blackboard special. We were not disappointed. Our entrees were served piping hot and perfectly timed to our first course finish. Nothing hurried or wanting here.

The sweetbreads pure flavors came through accompanied by morel and porcine mushrooms with a puff pastry to dream on! see pic

Perfectly seared salmon with skin that was crunchy while body of the fish was moist cooked to perfection set on a sauce of lobster bisque surrounded by peas, pea pods and fava beans adorned with paprika pepper perfect for a spring fare ala Provence.

The duck confit was moist, tender falling off bone with crispy duck skin, set in harmony with a cool crisp utterly fresh butter lettuce salad and pomme landaise (potatoes crisps fried in duck fat) If you never had the pleasure of potatoes fried this way, permit yourself the duck/goose fat indulgence on this occasion. You'll understand why the French won't give it up and forgo McDonald's fries forever.

The wine list is brief and impressive for its diversity. Anyplace that offers Gosset Brut Excellence by the glass is a winner in my book. This evening however, we ordered a bottle of Pierre Sparr 2007 Reserve Alsace Pinot Blanc for our first course. Served overly chilled, as most restaurants seem to do with whites, we did give it time to warm so it could reveal its flavors of white pepper apple/grapefruit with a medium body and fine finish. A lovely Alsatian wine that won't break the budget. For our main course we chose the 2005 Domaine du Gros Nore Bandol for two reasons, thought the characters of a Bandol would be perfect for our entrees and second, we've never had this producer before and we like adventure. We were very pleased with the deep blackberry and dark fruit bouquet and flavors along with some spices with rich velvety finish.

Our service was well attended with our glasses never lacking water or wine, nor our table attention as needed. A friendly staff gave charm and warmth to the evening and while we started our evening alone, we were not that way for long. Customers continued streaming in until we were glad to notice that all tables were occupied with happy diners.

I'm glad that this restaurant has success and as I noted to the manager if I were to live in the neighborhood I'd be there cozy up at the bar for friendly conversation, nosh and a glass once a week. She was so happy to hear that, she treated us to a glass of port. Now isn't that what a friendly neighborhood restaurant is all about??

Chef-owner Thierry Clement, whose name I did not inquire about until later, founded another success here (as if I need to tell him). He is formerly of another early discovered favorite restaurant of mine and the city's: Fringales.

So many of you who read my musings, live in the vicinity of San Francisco and many of you who don't live here, have occasion to visit San Francisco sometimes during the year at least once. I encourage you to try this gem on your next visit and when you do, be sure to mention you read about it here on this blog!

L'ardoise Bistro
151 Noe Street
San Francisco, CA 94114
Thierry Clement is on Facebook, wonder if he's on Twitter?

Happy Trading, Dining, Wining and Living!

PS. Author has no affiliation or acquaintance with the owners or staff of this restaurant. Just a happy customer!

Saturday, May 23, 2009

Trading List for Week of 5/18/09 - 5/22/09

Friday Post Market Update Results:
POT: 5/18 #1 target hit: $111. 5/20 #2 target hit $116. Wed call was stopped @$116.
FSLR:5/18 entered short 176.97 stopped. 5/19 entry $185.18 hit target $190. Did not hit short signal for the week
APA: Was good long $80-83 did not hit our short signal for the week.
DVN: Was good 5/21 for long $62-65. Did not hit short signal.
PBR: Did not hit short signal. Was nice long if you flipped it.
FTO: Long entry @$16.50 took 50% @ $17.41 on the fast spike Wednesday. rest w/stop kept @$15.50 ...I am just not convinced yet. Chart uploaded
WYNN: Long entry @$38.50 with target hitting $42 took 50% Tuesday . Break above $42 did not deliver. Did not add. Rest out on Wednesday @stop of $41.50.
Calls with Wednesday Updates:
* POT plot to $123 target as of 11am 20May09 : 117.59 pivot R1 119.88 R2 125.29 stop set at $116 today
* POT hit target #3 $116 ++ today May20th

Calls with Monday & Tuesday Evening Updates:
* FTO from last weeks call perked up Tuesday. Looking for oil to continue trend upwards: MUR potential to $58. Also from previous call lists, COST and BIIB long are performing.
* OK OK I called shorts Sunday night on: $FSLR $DVN $PBR $APA. only $FSLR triggered. But if you read "The Flip Side" you would have known what to do. Be always ready for a change in the market trend. What is interesting is that Monday's rally was on lower than usual volume. So heads up.
* APA: Short below $75.90 to $73 then to $71 AP A: Chance for long above $80 to about $81 higher on momentum but volume on this is drying up
* DVN: Nice on long if you flipped on entry above $60 on Monday. Further long above $62 look for near $65 again. DVN: Short below $58 to about $54.
*FSLR Long above $185 to about $189-$190. Short below $177 target $175 breaking 173.90 to fill gap to $165 area.
* POT: Long above $108 to $111, $116. Hit 1st target Monday look for further upside to target #2 POT: Short side look below $107 to $105 then $103;
* PBR: Short below 36.70 to $35, $34 area
* SKF: Intraday call short below $43 hit target ($41.50) Look lower below $41 to retrace to $40 & to test lows if financials remain strong. Still keeping in mind that it can break into new lows.
* WYNN: Looking for a reversal Long $38.50 - $42 We had a nice entry on this ending day @$41.40 Watch for $42 break above for new target to $44

Saturday, May 16, 2009

Trading List Week of 5/10/09 - 5/15/09

FINAL RESULTS for TRADING WEEK of 5/11/09 - 5/15/09

: Stopped out @ $49.20 on May 13th high was $49.87 for week. This may not have been the best pick and target was optimistic. It however delivered a couple of good trades and could also be scalped between $48.84 - $49.60
DVN: Poked above $65 then proceeded to form the handle Friday close $58.50 Stopped.
IBM: Hit high of week on Tuesday $104.50 below the $105 target. Entered above $101.70 @ $102 on Monday, exited $103. Tues, Wed, Thus did not play Firday again entry on open @$102 for the target of $103
MA: If you took this short below the $185 on Monday and held, you're a happy camper. I'm not that smart. It never went above the $185 for long, so, there was no POP for MA. Shorting below Monday close still netted target of $175.
PNC: Took 3 entries with 2 stops on Wednesday last one paid off with Thursday gap down. Did not go long.
POT: I covered this on my "The Flip Side" article below
PRU: Hit $37 target on the 13th.
SKF: Scalps this week long mostly. As I said the ride up is slow. Snow is melting. May be rock skiing for a while. There's an interesting rhythm forming on SKF which I have to verify for later sharing.
WYNN: Once losing $ 44.00 on Wednesday, 43.40 was just the beginning. she just kept paying below $43.40 to $37.10

That's all.. Hope this week was profitable for you .. thanks for following.

Update for 5/13/09 (published Tuesday night in sidebar)
  • SKF well we have to ride up the hill sometimes! The chairs' our friend ! Nice upside action today for several points. But look at her on the daily, Near the 10dma high today which it's been riding down. As always, be careful of snowsnakes.
  • MA no POP on this. (pun intended). May take short below close to about $175 on this on open then enter long on the reversal (if any)
  • BIIB We're on the 2nd day of entry holding long for target
  • WYNN gave opportunity both ways nearly hitting $50 on Monday at open and nearly hitting bottom @$44.10 today. Look for further down to about $43.40 on the long, above $46 holds promise to $47
  • PNC on pullback below downside 43.14 before another pop . Breaking $43, with some congestion to $40; upside to $48, 52, to 6mo high
  • DVN at $65 again rim of cup but continued climb will take it to little below $68
  • PRU dropped 2 days at open and then sideways.. $37 not hit yet, take a look at the action tomorrow for possible reversal. More downside is it loses the 200 @$38.35 on the daily
  • POT b/o of the channel and took flight . Watching test tomorrow for direction. $105, $107, $109 upside above $102. Downside below 99 possible to $97 area
TRADING LIST FOR WEEK OF 5/11/09 - 5/15/09 (Published Sunday night in sidebar)
Be careful and be ready for the instant change.. never take for granted that the trend will continue
  • POT is in sideways action with some potential scalps between 92-96 depends on open of course
  • PRU looks like it needs a pull back but don't argue with the trend $48 , $51, $54 can be next.
  • PRU on a reverse has potential to about $37
  • CSC still watching . may go short on this one
  • FTO long above 16.26 watch $16.85 level if b/o over potential to $19
  • DVN above $65 looking long again to $69; but first waiting for a pullback handle to about $57-$55
  • PNC if she breaks higher and clears $55, 57 then 62 is possible on momentum of higher volume
  • WYNN consolidating for break out or down . above $48.20 to $50 .. below $47.40 to $44
  • MA closed at hod Friday watch a pop on this and the $188-189 again.
  • BIIB long above 48.84, above 49.50 target $51
  • IBM going forward needs to hold above $101.70 target $103 then $105. Reverse breaking $99.63, target is $98
  • SKF Then there's our double-black- diamond SKF .. hit below $39 and closed there. Looking for $37, $35 then as low as $31 next
Good Luck !!

Friday, May 15, 2009

The Flip Side

Flip doh doh Flip! It should an automatic alert on my platform.. hm mm $ idea? OK how many times have you/I been there? Enough to know that it hurts when it does not register soon enough. Another missed opportunity as later I make note.. post its cover my desk.. somewhere there are others with the same observance of times past. Need something more: a pinch, needle, nudge, a slap.. take your pick; one day I'll wake up. I've smudged, I've cleansed, I've purged the demons that seem to invade my space and make me not see, but still they return at times most opportune. Dang it already!

Those that know of what I speak will sympathize and commiserate, but it's really not the solution. The idea is that we recognize soon enough a trend change and correct our positions fast enough to take advantage. Take for instance POT today. I've worked with this chart a couple of weeks. I've plotted, I've planned and set targets I've done what is required for discipline and I've been successful. I've also noted in my head that a pullback is inevitable in the markets and on this equity that has such a superb run. Today it hit target #3 ($109.00) and ran beyond which I prefer for it tells me I got out at a strong position and I can asses for re-entry on a pullback. The pullback is an opportunity for a short isn't it? No, it's not always. Pullback can be brief and with a strong stock can whip one out in an instance; and it's trends we look for and not the instant glory.

Shorts have to be plotted just as much as long positions are, which I did and saw the opportunity but did not act. This chart is the catalyst for this commentary today: . The arrows and my thoughts I added for emphasis here but the lines were drawn long before the resulting candlesticks on this 15 min chart .* Yet, I did not partake.. I did not act and therefore lost out on two very nice short trades, indeed.

I don't care how good you are, your disposition makes a difference as to when and how you notice an opportunity for a trade and how fast you react. I am an optimist and I have a preference for the positive; in other words I like to go long. Maybe I should call myself an Upsidetrader but, alas, that name is taken on Twitter and StockTwits by a very good trader indeed, who happens to like the short side. Go figure.

Nevertheless, I will continue to post my post its, continue to hone my observations and perhaps hire someone to pinch me at those opportune times. Then again, I could just enter my trade on the platform and let it go.. but ouch.. there's the other glitch in my psyche! Who is in control?

More than likely the answer is that we just have to let go and trust ourselves even on the downside. The psychology of the negative is that there is no negative; put that on a post it!

Happy Trading

* Please note that the time frames on the bottom of the chart are Pacific Zone and the Price Box is Atlantic Zone.)

Saturday, May 9, 2009

Forgotten Casualties

Placing ourselves into a situation because of a belief has always been risky business. People who do it can become heroes but more often they become forgotten casualties. It's because beliefs are emotional.

I have no doubt that many of those casualties were correct in their belief but unfortunately their timing was wrong. Looking at history I'm sure that there were many who railed against British rule, Stalin, and Hitler and who we've never heard of, all heroes for what they tried to achieve but were picked off one by one because they lacked one important factor.... consensus. People have to be ready for change in order for change to occur and therein lies the other factor.... timing.

Change takes time; well, not really. Change takes an instant; it's the preparation for change that takes time. Awareness and acceptance are the steps prior to change and are the ones that take the longest and where most get picked off. Awareness is where one notices that something is not in harmony, whether it be justice, science, or art, something does not work as well as it could. Philosophical in nature, it becomes a thought and a pattern that manifests slowly over time.

Voiced it becomes more real and becomes a belief or conviction; its where the campaigning begins and where most casualties occur. Shout it from the rooftop all you want; if people are not ready to hear it, you're shouting to the wind. But once someone does hear it and campaigns with you from another rooftop, the chain toward acceptance starts and unless there's weakness in the philosophy it won't fail but the battle has begun.

This is when those that want to stay with the status-quo, those with different beliefs and those that feel threatened will come into the fight. The battle continues until a leader emerges consensus is reached and when most are on board, action takes place and change occurs. Notice I did not at anytime say which side is right/wrong nor does hope ever enter it. It just is.

The best analogy I can recite about the above is the fall of the USSR; although many knew by the time Stalin emerged as a leader, that the Communist philosophy does not work, it took another 30 years of murderous battle, when millions died, and another 20 years war of acceptance before a leaders emerged and action took place for change. The pivot point of that battle was the 1956 Hungarian Revolution and the first support was the 1968 Czech Uprising, second support was when Reagan emerged in 1980 and third final support was when Gorbachev came on board leading to capitulation in 1989.

When we as traders become convinced of a philosophy about how the markets should or not be, and the market continues against us, we are in the awareness stage; right or wrong makes no difference, we are where the market is not. Although change may occur in an instant, we have to worry about where we are on the way to that instant. Has the battle begun, and where is the consensus is, should be always on the mind; but unless awash in unlimited supply of currency, we cannot stay in a trade against consensus without loss and becoming forgotten casualties.

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Trading List Week of 5/4/09- 5/8/09

Trading List Update for Friday, 5/8/09
We continued with the same list as the beginning of the week
POT .. recovered nicely and closed near hod $96.15
PRU .. continued it's climb and finished near hod $46 looks a little overextended
DVN .. tested $64 and broke to almost $65 before pulling back ending week
WYNN .. opened at the short target of $45 then moved and closed higher took no action today
MA .. a 1pt gainer on Friday and closed at hod.
PNC .. exceeded expectations .. isn't that nice !
BIIB .. taking BIIB off the short list .. as it's gaining momentum long
IBM .. $102 did not give enough support and she slipped lower
OCR .. had some gain on her with mfi pick up..
SKF .. slid to $39 and below lots of volume on this one and lots of fight left in her

Trading List update 5/7/09:

POT.. drop slam to almost $92
PRU.. better at open than I expected for my target.. then it was up up up
DVN.. almost hit that $64 in first 30 min of trading if you blinked, you missed
WYNN.. no pop but drop on this .. ah well we'll see tomorrow, volume drying up and she closed below the 200dma
MA... popped first almost made it to 187 the dropped .. still a gain if you were quick on it opened slightly above call entry .. popped to above $50 not bad for a scalp
BIIB.. still no go on this.
IBM.. retreated to 102 now we'll see if the bounce holds
OCR.. still shying away
SKF .. the double black.. mymy opened & got near target #3.. if that didn't scare you, judging from the afternoon, it's on it's way to $34 provided it can take out $39

OK that's it for now .. HAGE everyone

Trading List for Thursday, 5/7/09

  • Let's continue with our Wednesday's list for Thursday. There are some laggards that may catch up today. Watch for pullbacks and further upside on most but be ready to reverse any time.
  • PRU for pop and reverse kinda like the $34 on this could be sideways on this then $36
  • CSC is very tight volume negative drip on this will be ineresting to watch... still like this chart
  • Also watching, POT for reversal to about $92. On further bullish volume upside look to break 200dma around $99 then $107 is possible
  • DVN $64 is possible, let's see how far she goes
  • WYNN on heavier vol closed above 200dma look long above $51 for target of 53 & 55
  • WYNN will fill a cup at $55 .. so if she breaks higher...looking good
  • MA looking for pullback but it could pop buy above $184 target $188-189
  • PNC above 43.50 to about 200 dma at about $45.70 break above to $50 possible
  • BIIB short below 45.80 to about 44.37
  • IBM watch consolidation, break higher still like $111 on this. On reverse, watch $102 for bounce
  • OCR crossed 10 & 200 dma & closed above looking for target $28 & higher. Let's see how this lays out today
  • Then there's our double-black- diamond SKF .. let's see if she'll hit that $39. Be very careful her spring sting can be deadly.
  • Good Luck today!!


Trading List Update Postmarket 5/6/09
We hit several targets today in WYNN, DVN, PRU & PNC proving patience pays. More patience is required for OCR, IBM, POT, MA (Maybe by Mother's day ;)).
SKF hit 1st target and came within $.30 to #2 .. how sweet again. Below $42 next is $39 & lower..but caution always needs to be exercised

Listening to Keiko Matsui .... now it's time for wine
HAGE all see you tomorrow

Trading List for Wednesday, 5/6/09:

CSC is very tight volume negative drip on this will be ineresting to watch. PRU for pop and reverse kinda like the $34 on this
Also watching, POT for reversal to about $92. On further bullish volume upside look to break 200dma around $99 then $107 is possible
DVN closed midrange.. let's keep eye on this earnings out bmo I still like the $57-60 area depends on earnings of course
WYNN on heavier vol closed above 200dma look long above $51 for target of 53 & 55
WYNN on reverse short below $48.50 to $45
MA looking for pullback but it could pop buy above $184 target $188-189
PNC above 43.50 to about 200 dma at about $45.70 break above to $50 possible
BIIB short below 45.80 to about 44.37
IBM watch consolidation, break higher still like $111 on this. On reverse, watch $102 for bounce
OCR crossed 10 & 200 dma & closed above looking for target $28 & higher. Let's see how this lays out today

If it's Tuesday, it must be _____(up/down/sideways/bullish/bearish/hehe/haha) I'm out all positions
List Update Postmarket /5/5/09:

  • DVN dove on downgrade at the open and I stopped out $55.99 my final small position, a +3.09 average for the trade. I did not re-enter although positive signals came into market late in the day.
  • MA entered at $179.80 took profit at 180.50, did not reenter as it rose 2+ more points on it's way to the retest... just one of those days
  • COST, NILE, went in opposite directions from list, with NILE having a nice positive run (I think I was tired)
  • CSC still afraid of $38 may take this off the table
  • GNK pulled back and and filled gaps but failed the further test upward, due to market, oil and shipping taking a rest
  • BIIB and PNC did not hit entry and IBM were all mainly sideways throughout the day
  • SKF took a couple of scalps, not convinced that it's stopped moving downward.
  • All in all a fairly flat day for the list with MA being the exception but not carrying any positions overnight here.

In other news I am very excited and wish to welcome all my new followers on Twitter and a special thanks to @Tickerville for his positive comment and support.

That't it for now, I will post a new list for tomorrow, later. HAGE & thanks for following


Trading List for Tuesday, 5/5/09:

  • COST consolidating watch for breakout entry above todays' close, stop 47. Looking for $49 but if it breaks above, we're looking to near $52
  • PNC above 43.50 to about 200 dma at about $45.70 break above to $50 possible
  • NILE short below 40.26 to $40 taget $39 breaking that to approx $37
  • BIIB short below 45.80 to about 44.37
  • IBM watch consolidation, break higher on volume. On reverse, watch $102 for bounce
  • CSC this outlook changed slightly.. look for direction for clues; above $38 with strenghth target near $39 then $40.50 area.
  • DVN Closed near it's high so still bullish and looking for target 2 about $60 area watch the positive volume on this
  • GNK looking for 2nd target growing positive on volume $23. Don't get greedy. I like GNK but there's some gaps to fill the last three days. On positive side looks clear to the 200dma continued exuberance in markets should help
  • MA displaying high volatility, I'm watching this to break higher and retest the high of last 2 days. Careful for the whip.
  • Others to watch & Trade KLAC, TROW, BIG from previous calls
  • Remember, everything got a boost Monday. With many stocks at 6 month highs there's a possibility of a quick and rather shart pullback. So always be alert and set stops. Market still feels strong but there's a little feel of anxiousness building as we continue forward. A pullback is inevitable so don't let it surprise you.


Well, I'm sure every one's abuzz about this day. So I will try not to take too much time from the partying going on. Just caution.

List Update Postmarket 5/4/09:

DVN hit $57 target today. Took DVN target & now checking to see next for a small position continuance to $60 area.
GNK looking good for that $23
MA was bullish pulled back but not to target
IBM still consolidating
EXPE called last Monday 4/27/09 entered last Thursday,closed near high of day still looking for that $17 target
CSC reversed today, have yet to take position, would like to see it breakout above $38
MA bullish open, some pullback yet not to $169 before it took off again, nice if you caught this long
OIH called last Monday 4/27/09, almost hit $99 target
BIG and COST I did not play since exit last week
SKF took a huge hit today, seeing next at about $45, $42, $37.. but I can also see $34-$32 area if this rally continues. Very cautious on this .. can bite your head off in an instant.

Will post more for tomorrow later
HAGE (Have a great evening)

Trading List for Monday 5/4/09:

New to list:: BIIB, NILE

  • NILE short below 40.26 to $40 taget $39 breaking that to approx $37
  • BIIB short below 45.80 to about 44.37
  • IBM watch consolidation, break higher on volume. On reverse, watch $102 for bounce
  • DVN entry hit Friday staying with this to about $57
  • CSC look for long reversal to about $41
  • $GNK looking for 2nd target growing positive on volume $23.
  • $MA looking bullish fro open then pullback to about $169

With many stocks at 6 month highs there's a possibility of a quick and rather shart pullback. So always be alert and set stops. Market still feels strong but there's a little feel of anxiousness building as we continue forward. A pullback is inevitable so don't let it surprise you.

Friday, May 1, 2009

Trading List Update Post Market 5/1/07

Post Market Update Friday 5/1/09: Watching the last 1/2 hour today illustrated just how much disagreement there is amongst traders about the state of the economy. Buyers and sellers were literally punching it out and it was a fun watch.

This morning set the tone when $MA reported less than great expectations going forward despite beating the street. Strong pullback many of the well advanced stocks among them V. When the market did not tank on more buyers started to come into the market and the BB battle started, at first timidly ending by the final bell in a full war with Bulls winning this one.

The Trade list did not play out as expected today for the most part for reasons stated above. $GNK being the exception, hit entry early in the day and the $21 target before pulling back. zzzzzzzzzzzzz $IBM channel narrowed to 1.5 point range so the plays were much more narrow but so was most of the market. $CSC did not open higher higher than yesterday's close and stayed sideways most of the day so this will be a play going forward. $DVN entry was hit today with gains below expectations but still a decent $.80 could be had. Keep this also going forward as energy stocks will be in play I think this summer. Did not play $COST or $BIG as whenever I looked it was never the right time to consider them viable for today. $MA and $V had a few scalps in them both long and short as did $SKF.

So overall the week went as planned and had some very nice opportunities and gains fromthe list posted. Hope you had a great week and will have a great weekend.

MayDay Observations

The past week I'm having a feeling of a rhythm reentering this market. It could be because it's earnings season and it could be because it's spring and people get naturally optimistic. At a meeting the other night several made optimistic observations including the fact that real estate around the Bay Area is being viewed as more opportunity now with many bidding wars happening again with foreclosed homes in desirable areas, as well as how the restaurants seem to be full of patrons even on weeknights.

I'm not of the belief that we are out of the woods and certainly not in the camp with how this recession is being handled by our leaders, politicians, manipulators and the media. So I'm alert for a pullback and not ruling out the possibility of another steep drop (the other shoe), but I'm also keeping in mind how the other "shoe" was awaited after the last pullback (2003) and it did not drop until years later (housing).

I have said and observed it to be true that somehow politicians and the media along with financial analysts and advisers with all their financial engineers never seem to gauge the economic conditions correctly but the people do. It's why I'm so against believing all the "gurus" with all their opinions (since I don't think of myself as a guru, that statement does not include me, of course). LOL. Definitely watch what the people do and believe your eyes and the feelings rather than what is being told to you on any media.

Your agenda is and should be to live and enjoy life; theirs is to make you feel miserable so you can be more dependent on them.

When we're uncertain, in fear and in panic, we tend to look outside for answers and safety forgetting that we know best, what is best for ourselves. What I think is happening is exactly that we, the people are beginning to count on ourselves and what we can do again, especially when seeing that our many pigskin awarded, highly educated elected officials seem to think we need to run around the world for it.

Scatter and you'll be conquered; gather and you'll vanquish.

Happy May Day (not the red kind)
Now go dance around a maypole somewhere and enjoy!

Trading List Week of 4/27/09

Trading List for Friday May 01, 2009: There's a lot to choose from here are a few: I like to stay with what is working with just a couple of more to add that caught my eye.

$ IBM had another 4 point trading range day. It broke out of channel 2nd day in a row. Possible futher uptrend to $111, then $116 area.

$DVN did not break out of channel looking for same entry as before : long above $53.63 looking for about $57

$CSC look for long reversal to about $41

$GNK back on list with growing positive volume entry above $19.48 looking for $21 target again and secondary $23.

$BIG broke through a top consolidation today and pulled back to close at the top range of it. Looks good for continuation up to $29 and possibly to $30-$31 levels going forward

$COST got within hair of $49 target looking past $49 with momentum next target is $52-$53 area

$V nice on earnings and closed midrange on Thursday . Depending market conditions, $71 next target still holds provided it can get past $68

$MA filled gap to $188 Thursday and on earning in the morning could go to $198

With many stocks at 6 month highs there's a possibility of a quick and rather sharp pullback. So always be alert and set stops. Market still feels strong but there's a little feel of anxiousness building as we continue forward. A pullback is inevitable so don't let it surprise you.

Updating Post Market Thursday 4/30/09:

V hit targets 1 & 2 before pulling back to reload.
MA entry on open hit $184 target and went beyond. In KLAC from $27.21 per list, and in BIG from $26.85 per list.
PNRA missed this entry and $DVN no entry yet. SKF hit new low SWEET check list
COST really resisting that $49 so far

Trading List for Thursday 4/30/09 : With $V report and $MA credit/debit usage up will bode well for store stocks we were already tracking $BIG and $COST. $COST could finally see $49 then $52 area next target breaking $49.30. $BIG looks on uptrend again, breaking $26.85 will be key to further uptrend retrace.

V good earnings play above close entry to $65, $67, $71 target areas watch volume trend
$MA Looks good to about $184 provided it doesn't gap there on open.

$KLAC looks nice to about $29 entry above $27.21

$DVN looks nice above $53.63 to about $56 target \

$PNRA for a possible bounce off the $54.40 area, stop just belo

and our fav $SKF short retest of $54.4 on the horizon and could break lower.
Of course everything listed above is dependent of actual market conditions. Focus is on the SP500 holding and getting above the 880. Remember, nothing's written in stone, that's why it's a market.
Wednesday Post Market Update 4/29
SKF under $60 short (which I posted on twitter yesterday) again held true and retested low #1 and #2 the morning may see the $54.50 area watch for further breakdown if market is as strong as today.
$IBM broke out of channel today to the upside for a good bonus
$COST $49 keeps eluding but the low $46.60 area is also the past. There's a consolidation going on . Todays strength and good $V and $MA reports could assist for breakout upside.
I did not watch $BIG, $BCSI, $EXPE today

4/26/09 for Monday 4/27/09: $BIG looks like it filled a cup now waiting for handle

$COST has been nice and is still a play. Same scenario on a pull back, long $46.65 with $45.50 stop. On momentum this could take us up above $49 as it hits higher highs

$TROW long target $42 area look for poss pullback to approx $36.80 to bounce off the 200 or higher open as signals

Look for EXPE to break above the 200ma & to break $12.12 to continue upward trend to about $17

On the other hand, Airline/Travel Stocks may be effected by the Flu Pandemic Scare

I like Oil's slow upward trend. OIH looks nice to about $99

$BCSI long on open of abover $14 to refill gap to $15.20 area

$IBM sideways channel daily between $98+ to $104- trading in a 2pt range. Look for direction after open. Consolidation so break down/up is possible as well. Watch it to stay above the 200 Dma
Have a great trading day...keep your stops true!

PS. Almost forgot.. sweet $SKF Friday hit my call for low of $55-54 area of 4/17 even as I was early in my anticipation , Will it stay down for long? The coil is tightening but so is the fear of loss so I'm cautious now both ways.