Friday, March 30, 2012

The Daily Note - Out With a Whimper?

This March has been certainly like a march in the markets. It went relentlessly higher with such sure footing that one wondered if it would ever look back? I actually felt like a total fool for thinking it would have to correct. I tend to compare things to nature which I'm sure is no surprise to my readers, but I too began to think nature can be fooled to think what goes up keeps on going up up up. Never mind the cracks from the stress, we can all survive given the right amount of artificial or real bliss. All we have to do is believe.

There is my wry sense of humor, again. Sometimes I point out the obvious, sometimes the obscure, but lately I just let it roll; why bother, we're all savvy traders aren't we? And yet...
from the corner of my mind I feel I have some light to shed onto the stage of this "theatre of the absurd". Blogs, market, blips, tweets, combine into more complex thoughts all to be translated into type for a hoped for good article or two.

So March is over and we are dancing with the bulls who have managed to knock out at least one bear or two. More optimism fills the stream, upgrades, valuations, all point to more positive upside so it matters not how the month of March arrived, it matters more how it ended and how much longer we shall by choice or design continue on this route.

I, myself, prefer the positive side, yet compelled to continue the warning call. It's a dilemma in my nature to keep a bit wary of the good times. History of life, or blame this need for balance on Libra rising in my sign. So I shall tell you to keep on roads that have more alternatives for an exit. In other words keep off the highway and take the byway you'll be happier for it in the long run and get a better view of the landscape.

Where do I go now by Christian Kane on Grooveshark

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

The Daily Pick - NDX

©DayTrading with Anni 2012 All Rights Reserved

Thursday, March 22, 2012

The Daily Note - Under My Thumb

There is just no other word for it. It's not the first administration but it's the most flagrant one, even outdoing Clinton, Obama continues to thumb his nose at the US Constitution and continues to erode individual autonomy and he's doing it using your emotions. "Now I grant it now I don't" is the latest example of the confidence he displays that he can do it. Like an abducted child, the country is increasingly acting grateful for the grant and fearing the opposite, will continue to hail him for anything that seems positive for themselves, thinking it's also good for country.

Stocks are showing fatigue yet will only pull back inches instead of feet when they've risen miles just since September 2011. This time it's not the ".com" or "housing" bubbles which were used for examples, because this paradigm is different. This fear is different it's a government using fear to control on an increasingly higher level. Fear of loss and fear of gain both from the same body depending the handout from the left hand or right. Yes, this time it's the old example of what happens when people welcome the save rather than face the consequence, but a tulip is still just a flower and the longer the stem the more easily it breaks.

The markets are showing an increasing burden to keep it up, day in and day out, yet the institutions are compelled to buy and are driven by the same fear. It's being displayed in the attitude of many traders and many voters; anything for a gain, positive or green outcome is good; anything with loss, negative or red is temporary to be fixed soon by ... Bernanke, the Fed, President Obama, IMF, or European Union. In the end, we will collapse into it, depression, or out of it, inflation, because the delicate balance is teetering with us for balance but not with us as controlling individuals.

Question then becomes whether we are able to take control of ourselves again and the answer is "yes" if we are willing to take consequences because only then will we be able to gain strength, turn the tables and put the government under our thumbs again.

Under My Thumb by The Rolling Stones on Grooveshark

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

The Daily Pick - DJIA

©DayTrading with Anni 2012 All Rights Reserved

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

The Daily Note - AAPL Too Big to Fail?

Is AAPL becoming too big to fail? With all the institutions betting on this monster to make it or break it for them in their portfolios the question becomes legitimate.

AAPL is an icon/cult and very real. It became an icon and cult because it was carefully crafted way back in the early 1990's (remember those years?) when AAPL became the computer in schools? A really great plan and maneuver by Steve Jobs. He could sell ice on the North Pole and not fail once he established the presence of Macs in the classroom.

Many students who knew nothing about computers learned on a Mac. Many teachers did the same and PCs became strange if learned at all by any of them growing up throughout the 90's. Add 10 years and you have many who understand nothing else and many more who want nothing else. I don't mean Macs, but AAPL. Mr. Jobs was thanked in many schools by many teachers, the name stuck.

Of course, it wasn't really the Mac but the iPod that drove AAPL to gain attention, and who better than the youth, who drive the music business and the ones already familiar with the name AAPL. Napster was a very significant signal for the desire, AAPL capitalized on that with iTunes/ iPod and then integrated with the iPhone. Add to that the growth of China and the cost of AAPL products there. Far more expensive than here, just ask a Chinese student in America.

Institutions are compelled to hold the top stocks in their portfolios to compete, and AAPL is chief among them. Competition is fierce now for client dollars as individuals are reluctant to invest since 2007. So it is important to note a "Catch22" as one feeds on the other, and followers of AAPL only grow, and grow up.

Where Would I Be Now by Joe Cocker on Grooveshark

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
to the AAPL tune

The Daily Pick - AAPL

©DayTrading with Anni 2012 All Rights Reserved

The Daily Note - Market Leader Charts

I am at times contradictory to other's point of view just because I tend to look for historical points that the markets retrace in more obscure places. So where others may follow the S&P 500 (SPX) I look for strength in indexes more specific. Nearly 3 years ago I switched from watching the S&P500 (SPX) to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) because in my view it was the leader. Late November of last year, I switched to the (NDX) Nasdaq 100 because it became in my view the new leader of the current markets.

My favorite way to look at a chart is what I've been calling as "Naked" which means that the chart has no indicators marked, only candlesticks. It is because I feel it is more clear, as ones eyes get trained, rather than opaqued by indicators. That does not mean that I reject indicators nor do I pretend to know it all, it just means that I follow my own thoughts before I check others. It is in this way that I can rely and trust my own "design" and more easily spot mistakes.

I post my charts to share the vision I have of the markets and my purpose in posting is achieved if it gets you involved in looking at another point of view. Whether you agree or disagree with the charts I hope it helps as another "tool" for your trades. Besides the charts posted on my site here below, you will find my charts on links posted in the left column under "Follow Me On".

Learnalilgivinanlovin' by Gotye on Grooveshark

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

The Daily Pick - NDX

©DayTrading with Anni 2012 All Rights Reserved

Saturday, March 10, 2012

A Weekend Note - The Delicate Balance

Sometimes I become so embroiled with picking stocks that I neglect another side of my life. I can't deny a feeling of disconnect. The market is riding high and the life in the USA no matter how much make up is put on it is pulling me down. A trepidation that has been building for some time in me is becoming more and more aware that what I've feared the most may be inevitable. This rally starting in 2009 is now seemingly going sideways and some say it will end at 15,000 and others that it will go down and can't hold without a pullback.

In "normal" times I would agree that a pullback is essential for Dow 15,000 or even to hold the 13,000 as I have been showing on YouTube. But please note that these are not "normal" times of any recent or past history of the USA. When you have a president that writes regulations at record levels, nothing will be normal every again in the sense that we, adults, have been used to. Add to it that the education of children in schools today is to adapt to the President's model, will only assure that the past "normal" will never have a chance to return. To which I must add my theory which is that in order to continue these new "normal" times the current office holder of the highest office of the world ( or so it seems) will have to be re-elected. Notice that I implied that his re-election is not a "may be", but a "must". In other words it has to be assured.

We are already witnessing the media slowly taking down the competition via much ridiculing of the debates, not to mention altering of facts by reporting dismal data as good or a "good sign" for recovery. Same results and reports a mere 5 years ago would have been deemed unacceptable by the same people, but what is not really discussed is that there is a "Hungry Hippo" in each of our households representing that the real battle is the monetary one.

Most prices today have inflated by 20% (food and energy) while houses have deflated by 20-40% in the past 5 years. So not only have household "wealth" been reduced by deflation of value in property (for those who own) but the cost of living has increased by about the same amount, reducing our real wealth overall. Which can only mean that the markets have inflated to match some of that difference at least. You know, buy less with more. As prices rise, inflation rises is perhaps new to a few, but it seems not to be a concern for those who hold stocks. Bond yields have been 0 to barely nothing, so markets have had to create room for desperate people to make something on their money.

For this President to be assured re-election will require the seeming continued "recovery" and therefore "Green at any cost" is the secret re-election slogan. With markets ending to the upside on almost a daily basis with seeming absorption of any bad news keeps the delusion of things going well and at the same time continuing the inflation to keep'em happy.

But paper money is paper money. It's paper if it's printed and it's paper until cashed from the markets and if/when that frenzy starts, the need to make it real can strip the market very fast as we witnessed back in March 10, 2000. That is the challenge for this administration and the real challenge of the Federal Reserve: The Hungry Hippo must not know that it's hungry and the masses must feel that they are gaining on this losing battle rather than losing their real wealth. So the Fed will keep printing and injecting via mandate to banks they lend to and the investors will keep buying because when the market direction is straight up, investors must invest.

At some point it will have to correct, but when is probably the trillion dollar question because just as the European Union must be kept together at all costs to keep hiding the real debt problem, the USA must keep seeming the most free and prosperous nation to the world for the same reason.

Keep it up another generation and most will not remember how it was and will accept whatever they will be told as the cause of their poverty midst their millions. Can it be done? I say yes, it can. Remember that the delusion was successfully executed by the Soviet Union for 75years and currently still held by many citizens in suppressed countries at a great human and development cost. I think current technology is already assisting in the delusion. Which only proves that choosing who you believe is just as important as what you believe because eventually you may not even have that choice.

Somebody That I Used To Know by Gotye on Grooveshark

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

The Daily Pick - DJIA DJT SPX NDX

©DayTrading with Anni 2012 All Rights Reserved

Friday, March 2, 2012

The Daily Note - The Don't, Won't, Can't of Trading

Have you noticed that whenever you resolve not to do something, you do it anyway? The duh moment comes after you realize that you've committed the same act once again. Why is it so difficult to let go of a non-thinking habit? I'm sure there are many answers if you take the time to dwell into yourself, but consider this one also: Your subconscious mind does not hear the "negative".

In other words if you say "I won't, don't, can't do this or that" your subconscious registers "I will, do, can this or that".

The first time I heard this theory I kept looking for ways to negate it. (Get the joke?) But more often I noticed that I did exactly what I don't, can't, won't, "wanna" do, because the negative statement basically reinforces the negative action rather than replacing it.

All too often traders will repeat to themselves what NOT TO DO rather than what TO DO. So, turn the statement into a positive which will reinforce a positive action and make it your mantra rather than keeping the negative mantra as your guide. Give it time to work also, it took many years for you to practice the negative, so it will take some time to turn the tables of your mind, but the good news is that it will take far less time as you see the positive results to your positive thoughts and actions.

Ac-Cent-Tchu-Ate The Positive by Ella Mae Morse on Grooveshark

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

The Daily Pick - $DJT NDX Outlook

©DayTrading with Anni 2012 All Rights Reserved