Sunday, October 30, 2011

A Weekend Note - Come Fly with Me

Qantas grounded? I cannot imagine that a once great airline that others emulated would end up near bankruptcy. I cannot until I realize that Qantas is not the first one and probably will not be the last. At one time, Qantas was the airline to fly to the South Pacific islands of Fiji, New Zealand, then continue to Australia. They owned a building on San Francisco's Union Square and they one of the best airlines to fly for service.

What happened to service? Well, speaking domestically, it was one of the first things cut after deregulation, as competition heated up with lower and lower airfares. With no guaranteed fare structure and the need to keep in the air despite of rising fuel and parts prices as well as rising union packages for pilots and mechanics and ground crew. Internationally,  grand airlines subsidized by governments are no more. National airlines used to be the pride of nations and were used to attract tourists to their homelands: Swiss Air, Singapore Air, Pan Am, Qantas chief among them but alas, nations can no longer support themselves let alone subsidize airlines. Those airlines experienced competition for the first time, as nations allowed more international airlines to fly to their lands.

Deregulation was going to  bring needed competition for lower airfares and better routes, and of course it was going to take care of air service to less traveled routes. All of which was theory and now we can also argue  perhaps a failure. Airfares competed but service paid a dear price. Oil prices were not expected to rise to levels they are today and of course the contracts signed in the days of bounty have become a major burden. Hence aircraft are not as well maintained and of course service suffered and then got clobbered when security became the most important aspect of going anywhere.

Under regulation airfares were the same, nationally and internationally,  to destinations no matter who you flew. Therefore the only way to compete was .. well ... service. Airlines emphasized service as a way to attract customers, and tried to outdo each other with comfort, lounges, food and entertainment and it was not a cheap prospect.  Flying was expensive or shall we say more expensive than it is today when adjusting for inflation. Still, those who flew then and fly today miss it although well aware of the current selection of airlines competing for our dollar with service. Still, those who remember how it was before deregulation, feel it more keenly and nostalgia, for what it's worth, kicks in once again.

Come to think of it, the markets did a nice job of taking flight last week, see review and outlook below.

Happy Trading, Living and Flying

The Daily Pick -  DJIA

 ©DayTrading with Anni 2011 All Rights Reserved

Monday, October 24, 2011

The Daily Note - It's Your Oyster

I am actually not sure where it got started. I know I've always talked of more than just markets, charts, setups and trades like anyone else. It was a way to connect with others who may have liked to do the same things. As the years passed I shared my love of music and dance and many other topics usually somehow tied to trading. Although my blog grew, it never really exploded with readers, but those who came for the most part stayed. I've wondered often how they found me, where even why, but it really didn't matter when it's gratifying just to be read. One story touches others, the reasons aren't as important as the connection.

Then came Twitter and StockTwits where everyone flocked for new ideas, quick help perhaps quick money. The exchange of trading information exploded. As it grew one did not know where to put the ideas for most exposure and most viewing. While one feels fresh and others stale, all the while I try to please it all. Impossible to say the least, but then, I was always one for trying the impossible task. Of course one does not always succeed and often in doing, one loses sight of the original idea: to write about trading and life and how they relate.

I've fallen out or away from that and now feel a bit lost in this dark wilderness, but I know it to be part of the circle, the spiral of growth. I know that despite the feeling of being lost, I am on a path of something I cannot leave or give up. I will come into the light again, like a friend told me. I have many readers in all areas, from all around the world and I appreciate you all. I will not abandon any one group or another, I may just need a bit of adjusting .. my attitude perhaps?

It feels sometimes like that in trading also. Especially when choices are a struggle or too many. Too many stocks to choose from can get one lost in the abundance, too few and one can feel a bit of fear about how it will go. Yet the truth is that for as long as I have been calling trades and sending out charts, the number of choices have always been "just right". Like the bears and Goldilocks found out, when one has no expectations whiles exploring, usually the world opens like an oyster revealing the best pearl.

I suppose that is the best attitude adjustment one can hold on to, image of beauty perfection like only nature can give. So, be it on a mountain or by the sea the oyster of abundance is always in front of us if we have the eyes to see.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
©Day Trading with Anni 2011, All rights reserved

The Daily Pick - DJIA

©Day Trading with Anni 2011, All rights reserved

Friday, October 14, 2011

The Daily Note - Fly Google Air

I posted a Pre-Market Charts and Music on StockTwits yesterday morning that basically stated that if it held above $550 during the day, it was possible that it would hit the top of the gap at $587: $GOOG As Google progressed during the day it became more and more evident that the 555 would hold not just the 550. Did "someone" know something? Actually the evidence of leak can be pointed to when it started ramping in the final minutes of the day to $559, but by then, my earnings play strategy was published and ready for execution.

Usually GOOG reports right after the close, so there is no time for even a breath before the reaction occurs. In other words, you better be ready for the play, or sit it out. When deciding for the "long" play entry I felt there would be about a 4-5 point pop before the long execution would kick-in. I also tried to give it enough room to bounce in case it dropped first. But still I expected a more muted reaction on good news than it received. So the take off, despite of previous history, was a pleasant surprise. Like going from 0 to 60 in 10 you could say.

You could also say that I missed by grossly underestimating the targets on this Pre-Close Google Earning's Play setup.

We'll fly away:

So Google's got wings again. I wrote a few months back that I didn't think it would see 700 again. Well maybe now I'll rethink, but not so quick, friends, not so quick. Everything is in cycles and first we'll have to see if this cycle is just the beginning or a quick shot to the moon in the end.

Hope you had a pleasant flight,
Anni ;)

Disclosure: We never hold stocks into earnings reports. Always start earnings plays from zero holdings (cash).

©DayTrading with Anni 2011 All Rights Reserved

Monday, October 10, 2011

The Daily Note - Wall St. Protest, What's Your Rush?

On your way to join the crowds crying out to blame? hate? kill? big banks.. STOP a moment. Hear what you area saying! You are not talking about a building, institution and not even money. You are crying out against people. Yes, people. Human beings that you are calling out to die. But even if 1 or 10 of the people within those walls you hate deserve such a fate, have you for a moment though what you are really saying? STOP once again. PLEASE. You are also talking their violent death and talking of loss of many more in the mob thinking of such a justice. You speak out against hate crimes and hate speech.. is this not the same?

Why do we forget in our rush of judgement against an institution that the humans that make up that institution are mostly you and I. Yes, we all partake in banking and Wall Street no matter how we wish to deny it. Do you really want to kill it?

If you do, you are actually fulfilling their wishes. Playing straight into their hands. Mob demands, mob gets, mob rejoices but what is it that they really want? Death to Wall Street and death to BIG banks? In part, yes but that is not the end of it all. NO. What they are really after is a big enough demonstration, outrage and outcry to not only kill those institutions but given to increasing demands to make more regulations and to eventually nationalize it all.

Think of it! You want one big National bank? Total regulation on Wall Street? Do you really want EVERYTHING to be regulated by the government? Because that is what they are crying for underneath all the other signs of outrage. You have no idea what that means, you may have an inkling but no real idea and neither do all those protesters.

That those who are believers in Socialism are demanding such radical changes does not surprise me; but those who are investors in the markets and know what makes it tick? Well, frankly I'm dismayed. What part of freedom to negotiate your own salary and package have you forgotten? Haven't you ever negotiated your salary and exit package? Even if you applied only for a MacDonalds job you had a right to ask in pay for what you think you are worth. Why do you want to give it all away so easily? Is it because you have actually bought into the cry that you are being cheated? If so, you have yet to realize that you are not only cheating yourself, but also your future and your family. Because, yes, ultimately what you forget is your own responsibility and with it your choice to be who you are. Give that away to someone else to control and you have nothing.

History keeps repeating and many get angry for one reason or another about being dealt and unjust hand, but that is life. You're not the first or last to be cheated, embezzled of burnt. But unfortunately what happens it that the first in line gets whacked while the rest scurry into woodwork and conduct from there. The mob, sees nothing; sweat of anger diminishes vision and demanding steps they will later regret; they take up a cause they've yet to understand the consequences of. It is thus that Totalitarianism which rapes souls, takes hold.

If you do not believe that this so called simultaneous outrage is an organized movement, I suggest that you do some investigating. Look up history. You'll read the same outcries. Just substitute current title Imperialism then, Wall St. today. White Russian against Red Russian. The peasant cause that let everyone have a cow but not their middle class dreams. Suggest that you start reading fervently and listening to those who have experienced history with it for far longer perhaps than you've been alive.

Is it inevitable? I hope not. Will it happen? I hope not. I keep being positive about the American knowhow and belief that all of history is somehow in the genes by now of most who are living, yet when I see signs and articles that are totally thoughtless receiving accolades, I really wonder how much intelligence has already been undermined and eroded.

Come on everybody, Americans, it's been relatively easy for you until now, it's time to stand up and fight for your freedom and not for your burial. Start demanding that your government govern according to the Constitution as written. You want education? Study. You want honesty, demand it from the media, government and yourselves. You want free money? Pay for it with your taxes. You want representation? Demand it from your elected officials. Quit being cry-baby victims. No body can fool you unless you let them. So stop being jealous and greedy. Because in truth that's what stick in your craw with those golden parachute packages; It's more than you've got. Those that got more pay, asked and fought for it. Those that got ahead, worked for it. Face yourself in the mirror and and get some courage. Be another Steve Jobs, better yet, be yourself and then, no one and no bank, company or institution will be able to beat you down.

Keeping Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

The Daily Pick - DJIA outlook

©DayTrading with Anni 2011 All Rights Reserved

Saturday, October 1, 2011

A Weekend Note - The Price We Pay

What price this stock, what price that one? We all would like to think that we pay less than what it's worth so we can reap the profits as prices rise to it's "true" worth. But as markets go, is it really worth the price we pay and the price we get? Who tells us so and what do they know that I do not?

The world is full of analysts who analyze and on their word many hang their trading decisions. Do we question their analysis even if we read them thoroughly? Do most of us bother reading them at all? I seriously doubt it. Lastly, do you do your own analysis of a stock's worth? What criteria do you use and what proof do you have that you are correct?

In our rush to be right, often we fail to realize that the price that we seek may be elusive at best and unrealistic at worst but somewhere in between is the true answer and that is what we pay or get.

Who amongst us has not chased a stock price? Who amongst us has not wished they had chased one? Reality is that the true value of a stock is what people pay and people get at any moment in time. That is the nature of free markets. We can argue endlessly about fundamental worth, p/e ratios, betas and book value, important as they are to those who put value on them, but when it comes to paying your moneys where do you really get in or get out?

These lessons are learned quicker by those who have been in business as merchants. It's nice to think we'll always get what we think something is worth, ahh but what if no one is willing to buy it at that price point? Is it still worth that price? Maybe to someone who is not in our reach, but that matters not, what matters is the fact that we have to sell our merchandise and buy fresh inventory in order to be open another day.

Think about all your purchases throughout your life. How much were you willing to pay for the latest toy, fashion, car, computer, cell phone, or iPod. Do you hold them to be at the same value today? Most likely not because value, in the end, is the price we are willing to pay and willing to receive.

So it goes and so it is that the markets are a true demonstration of what free competition is about and why PCLN, NFLX, AAPL, GOOG, BIDU all fetch what the market will bear from one moment to the next. It's also why one day you stand hours in line in order to be the first to own a product and settle for yard sale price for the same later.

The bottom line is that, in the markets, you are either playing or sitting it out which is the ultimate proof of what you think something is worth whether the world agrees with you or not. So in short, value is ever changing and ever evolving just like life.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

The Daily Pick - AAPL

©DayTrading with Anni 2011 All Rights Reserved