Sunday, September 14, 2014

The Weekly Market Outlook - $DJIA $SPX $NDX & The Recovery

*****Markets are sitting on a decision point. I say point, because the more uncomfortable it becomes on the tush the more likely that it will move somewhat violently one way of another.

The truth is we cannot continually excuse the bad news to be OK news. We cannot continually say that this is the only market that there is where people will put their money to invest; and we cannot continually think that  we are in a robust economy when earnings expectations meet or exceed a lowered expectation.

I don't wish to throw any wet blankets on anyone or anything, but evidence is actually to the contrary. We are at best sputtering.  Even though this is the only market that people can continually rely on to invest, the much too often talked about sidelines money from the citizenry is going to meeting living expenses and not  not waiting for the right time to enter. Evidence is that the jobs market may actually reduce not increase much in large due to ObamaCare. Evidence is that the government is not only  increasing income taxes, but adding other taxes that are hidden, in everyday life.  Also, evidence is that inflation for you and my living expenses are on the rise at much higher than 2.2% .

Inflation is not measured by the government as it actually effects us. Maybe inflation is not so much evident in your gas or energy cost or your interest cost (yet).  But it's hugely evident in your food cost, your entertainment cost, your travel cost, your health care cost, and even your parking meter cost.

But the largest evidence that we are not nearly in a robust recovery as we'd like, is in the wage increase data. Yes, you read that right. When wages don't increase across the board (unless compelled by the government) it means that the people are not going to do much better than last year or the year before especially when compared to the cost of living increase (inflation).  Some people point to "bonuses" being on the rise to employees and should be looked at as a wage increase. The trouble with that argument, aside from the reason it's done that way by companies, is that most employees don't get a bonus.

So, the big question of where we are really in this recovery, becomes more weighing on the markets as we keep pushing higher because low volume does not always mean everyone's happy where they are sitting.  In short, as I always say, "trade it well and carefully" my friends.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
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The Weekly Outlook #38 ~ 15 Sept. 2014

©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2014 All Rights Reserved

Thursday, September 11, 2014

The Daily Note ~ Look at Me, Not Your Watch $AAPL

*****I quit wearing a timepiece (watch) the day I left corporate life. Having worked for an airline compelled me to live by the minutes on a clock, so wearing a watch was mandatory. I still remember the feeling of removing it, setting it on my dresser and actually being relieved.  That was thirty years ago and I never wore another time piece since, nor have a ever had a need for one.

One thing that strikes me about this new and possible fashionable item for a new generation is the memory of seeing people constantly looking at and checking their watches. Like the smart-phones they were the nervous "tick" of the masses. It made people look important, to somebody, mostly themselves.  After all, if you look like your waiting for someone at a bar, you're not looking so desperate to meet someone new. Your ego's intact. It was also a signal of boredom, therefore rude, to look at your watch while you were conversing with someone.

Smart phones and tablets have become the wristwatches of yesteryear in the past decade.  It's even worse than a watch because it would have looked silly to talk to or keep adjusting a watch, but the use of a smart phone it has become a natural action.  In short, smart-phones have become relied upon as useful company as much as they have become mandatory for business and social interactions. After all, if you look like you're busy calling, texting, or messaging, you're don't look desperate for company.  Yet, it makes it even more difficult than looking at a watch to strike up a live conversation with the person next to you. When your eyes are on a screen busily interacting with "whoever" or "whatever" it shuts down eye contact with anyone live, but it keeps your ego intact.

Seems to me that doing the same with a watch as with a smart phone, we will have combined the two. A brand new generation of people will be endlessly looking at the screen on their wrist, taking away even more attention from their surroundings. At least with the smart-phone most use both hands and, at some point the phone was put away like for instance during a meal. A wristwatch, on the other hand (no pun), will always be available and seeing persons constantly looking at their watches will, indeed, look silly again to someone like me. Maybe worse if you're also signaling boredom coupled with rudeness when it's taking away attention from the person you're with, because a glance at a watch is far different from being engaged with one.  

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

The Daily Pick - $AAPL

©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2014 All Rights Reserved

Sunday, September 7, 2014

The Weekly Outlook - $DJIA $SPX $NDX Sept. 08, 2014

*****We are in the last month of the third quarter and what lays ahead can be both higher or lower.  Markets continue to push higher ignoring all negative news after it's digested. It makes for a look ahead higher with a weary eye toward a possible reverse. Weary or not however, I look at and for both.  I'm seeing the battle lines drawn and it's why I like to know about the possibilities of the next outcome.

Since none of us have a crystal ball, and my psychic abilities are limited with numbers, I'm forced to look at the markets this way.  I'm just one part of the masses who have collective control and so I prefer to be ready with the moves both ways. Whether  you are a long term, swing term or day trader,  determine setups for both long and short because it makes no difference about the direction when you know where you're going.

I force myself to think this way because I can be easily swayed by my own prejudices. If I believe that the world will end in the next week, my prejudice will show in my trading positions unless I don't allow myself to be so swayed. Therefore setups for both long and short entries, targets are based on the charts. Adjustments (if any) are based on market action, but never do I try to forget the possibilities initially seen. I usually regret if I do.

So, for the following week, this is what I see:

Happy trading, living and dancing

©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2014 All Rights Reserved