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***** I've spoken about taking chances before and here once again when the markets seem to be topping it's those that take chances get rewarded; or so it seems.
Not everyone does well chasing tops or grabbing bottoms; my trading style is different yet I certainly admire those who do and do it well. Trading tops and bottoms requires a certain stamina and a certain daring. More often than not, the market can turn against your direction rather quickly so taking profits too is a challenge and the style can become a scalping game.
The major challenge in this style is to figure the top or the bottom of a direction, which in itself is a major study. Knowing your charts is crucial in any trade, but recognizing tops and bottoms requires mastering it. It is not to say that you will not get it correct many times, but it takes years of observation too, to see it unfold. Then also, when the time is right, the question becomes whether to take that chance and risk the loss if you're not correct because as I said, chancing a reversal has more probability of being wrong for the time being.
I say time being because as we go higher like in the Dow30 (DJIA) or the S&P500 (SPX) we do not know how high is high enough for most traders & investors. Being exact is difficult even with excellent charting because we only know that somewhere it will top and reverse, for short or longer term. First consensus has to be reached which for day traders one day is enough and for trend traders a longer term is needed and preferred, but in either case your conviction is tested.
Stamina is required to stay with the flow of a trade even if you are on the "right side" but your conviction gets tested each time a trade turns against your direction and when your only "comfort" is having a set stop. Loss in any trade is painful but, in order to get those big winners on a direction reverse, traders have to take them and minimize them.
Where you set your stop is how you will manage most of these trades, as limiting loss is crucial and more wrong trades than right trades can turn into major losses if not managed well. So if you have the stamina, the daring and are able to manage your loss well, this may be a style you prefer and remember that chances are only given to those who take them.
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
The Daily Pick - $DJIA $SPX $NDX
©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved
Friday, May 17, 2013
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
The Daily Note - $DJIA $SPX $NDX Tuesday Update, Nothing More
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*****Seems to me that everyone's waiting; and you know what happens when everyone's waiting, Nothing; and I have nothing more to say.... for now.
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
The Daily Pick - $DJIA $SPX $NDX
©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
The Daily Pick - $DJIA $SPX $NDX
©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved
Friday, May 10, 2013
The Daily Note - $DJIA $SPX $NDX Feel Forgotten?
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*****Today I got reminded about an article that I wrote about the importance of timing when in comes to success. I was once again reminded because while waiting and betting on a correction, or lower low in 2009, the market started to move relentlessly upward. At the same time, everyone, but mostly traders and analysts, and gurus, were opining about how we needed to drop lower for a true correction. Of course we were only 2 months into the reversal, so who knew what was to come?
In this business, or any business to a large extent, it matters not what you think should happen, because it's the consensus that will bring the change and until then many more have to become aware and realize it before the markets will change.
Take a look on my weekly outlook below to see the pattern, and you'll see how we got to where we are today, where once again I'm hearing the increasing grumblings of a needed correction.
Enjoy:
Forgotten Casualties
Published May 09, 2009
Placing ourselves into a situation because of a belief has always been risky business. People who do it can become heroes but more often they become forgotten casualties. It's because beliefs are emotional.
I have no doubt that many of those casualties were correct in their belief but unfortunately their timing was wrong. Looking at history I'm sure that there were many who railed against British rule, Stalin, and Hitler and who we've never heard of, all heroes for what they tried to achieve but were picked off one by one because they lacked one important factor.... consensus. People have to be ready for change in order for change to occur and therein lies the other factor.... timing.
Change takes time; well, not really. Change takes an instant; it's the preparation for change that takes time. Awareness and acceptance are the steps prior to change and are the ones that take the longest and where most get picked off. Awareness is where one notices that something is not in harmony, whether it be justice, science, or art, something does not work as well as it could. Philosophical in nature, it becomes a thought and a pattern that manifests slowly over time.
Voiced it becomes more real and becomes a belief or conviction; its where the campaigning begins and where most casualties occur. Shout it from the rooftop all you want; if people are not ready to hear it, you're shouting to the wind. But once someone does hear it and campaigns with you from another rooftop, the chain toward acceptance starts and unless there's weakness in the philosophy it won't fail but the battle has begun.
This is when those that want to stay with the status-quo, those with different beliefs and those that feel threatened will come into the fight. The battle continues until a leader emerges consensus is reached and when most are on board, action takes place and change occurs. Notice I did not at anytime say which side is right/wrong nor does hope ever enter it. It just is.
The best analogy I can recite about the above is the fall of the USSR; although many knew by the time Stalin emerged as a leader, that the Communist philosophy does not work, it took another 30 years of murderous battle, when millions died, and another 20 years war of acceptance before a leaders emerged and action took place for change. The pivot point of that battle was the 1956 Hungarian Revolution and the first support was the 1968 Czech Uprising, second support was when Reagan emerged in 1980 and third final support was when Gorbachev came on board leading to capitulation in 1989.
When we as traders become convinced of a philosophy about how the markets should or not be, and the market continues against us, we are in the awareness stage; right or wrong makes no difference, we are where the market is not. Although change may occur in an instant, we have to worry about where we are on the way to that instant. Has the battle begun, and where is the consensus is, should be always on the mind; but unless awash in unlimited supply of currency, we cannot stay in a trade against consensus without loss and becoming forgotten casualties.
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
The Weekly Outlook - $DJI $SPX $NDX
©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved
In this business, or any business to a large extent, it matters not what you think should happen, because it's the consensus that will bring the change and until then many more have to become aware and realize it before the markets will change.
Take a look on my weekly outlook below to see the pattern, and you'll see how we got to where we are today, where once again I'm hearing the increasing grumblings of a needed correction.
Enjoy:
Forgotten Casualties
Published May 09, 2009
Placing ourselves into a situation because of a belief has always been risky business. People who do it can become heroes but more often they become forgotten casualties. It's because beliefs are emotional.
I have no doubt that many of those casualties were correct in their belief but unfortunately their timing was wrong. Looking at history I'm sure that there were many who railed against British rule, Stalin, and Hitler and who we've never heard of, all heroes for what they tried to achieve but were picked off one by one because they lacked one important factor.... consensus. People have to be ready for change in order for change to occur and therein lies the other factor.... timing.
Change takes time; well, not really. Change takes an instant; it's the preparation for change that takes time. Awareness and acceptance are the steps prior to change and are the ones that take the longest and where most get picked off. Awareness is where one notices that something is not in harmony, whether it be justice, science, or art, something does not work as well as it could. Philosophical in nature, it becomes a thought and a pattern that manifests slowly over time.
Voiced it becomes more real and becomes a belief or conviction; its where the campaigning begins and where most casualties occur. Shout it from the rooftop all you want; if people are not ready to hear it, you're shouting to the wind. But once someone does hear it and campaigns with you from another rooftop, the chain toward acceptance starts and unless there's weakness in the philosophy it won't fail but the battle has begun.
This is when those that want to stay with the status-quo, those with different beliefs and those that feel threatened will come into the fight. The battle continues until a leader emerges consensus is reached and when most are on board, action takes place and change occurs. Notice I did not at anytime say which side is right/wrong nor does hope ever enter it. It just is.
The best analogy I can recite about the above is the fall of the USSR; although many knew by the time Stalin emerged as a leader, that the Communist philosophy does not work, it took another 30 years of murderous battle, when millions died, and another 20 years war of acceptance before a leaders emerged and action took place for change. The pivot point of that battle was the 1956 Hungarian Revolution and the first support was the 1968 Czech Uprising, second support was when Reagan emerged in 1980 and third final support was when Gorbachev came on board leading to capitulation in 1989.
When we as traders become convinced of a philosophy about how the markets should or not be, and the market continues against us, we are in the awareness stage; right or wrong makes no difference, we are where the market is not. Although change may occur in an instant, we have to worry about where we are on the way to that instant. Has the battle begun, and where is the consensus is, should be always on the mind; but unless awash in unlimited supply of currency, we cannot stay in a trade against consensus without loss and becoming forgotten casualties.
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
The Weekly Outlook - $DJI $SPX $NDX
©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved
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