Life relates to trading and trading relates to life. Constantly revealing, unfolding before us as we trade and live, so I write about how my life relates to trading and how I trade the markets. Along the way I share my opinions on anything that evokes my passion or tickles my funny bone trying not to forget that enjoying life is the best part of living.
I am constantly amazed at our capacity for hope. We are all vulnerable and we all fall for it somewhere. I challenge you to inspect all aspects of your life, if you think you are immune, and I bet you will find that there is a place where it applies to you. Therefore, the saying "hope for the best, prepare for the worst" is not bad advice overall, but will save only those who can see or define what the worst is. For most traders, and us romantics "worst" is covered up with hope and nothing is is very clear from that position; and that is why we fail to prepare for the worst in some aspect of our lives.
When you don't know what the worst is for you, you will not be able to save yourself from death. It's just that simple. I am speaking of death in the multiple sense here not the final one. Of course that too can happen to the totally unprepared.
As I said, hope is an eternal flame, burning, consuming and really tough to extinguish, which is good for our desires because it's what drives us to go on. Reality is what we face each day living in the moment and hope is somewhere down the line. In between there are many possibilities and that is why we must draw the line somewhere to keep our reality balanced. If we don't plan ahead, reality can be painful. On the other hand, if we balance too much on the worst side, we may miss out on reaching that hoped for goal. And that is the key which fits the other side of this lock.
We not only need to know what the "worst" is for us, but also what is the hoped for "goal". So a goal must be attached to hope for it to be reasonable. Without a goal, hope is like smoke; movable at the slightest of breeze and consequently never reachable. A goal is manageable, hope is not. So each time you think hopefully, see if you can attach a goal to that hope and it will help you find that elusive "worst" place also.
Happy Easter Monday, Europe. We in the USA had our holiday on Friday, so markets are a bit askew as a result. Spring is really in full swing now, even if it's still snowing in Tahoe and Alaska recorded the heaviest snowfall in decades. It's also unusually warm on some days and places and cold on others as if, like the markets, the weather is having a hard time about which way to go. Shall it break some old record highs or go for the test of the lows?
In any case, the anticipated earnings season is most likely why the market is hesitating and we'll be kicking off the watch in the room along with the rest of the world. Although Alcoa Aluminum (AA) is the "official" start of earnings, most are waiting to see how Google (GOOG)and the other "Usual Suspects" will do, which will set the tone for the rest of the reports and the market going into Summer.
Regardless the outcome, some pullback and test would bode well for the market and most likely fuel it's future for breakout. The question of course is how low a pullback is enough and will it be "allowed" by the politicians and Feds. Remember the slogan "Green at any cost". It's a slogan that I made up for this election year, and since last summer, when I first coined the phrase in my room, it has proven to be correct.
So, keeping all that in mind, have a great earnings season and enjoy the day.
Too Hot Too Cold ('03) by Whitestarr on Grooveshark
I am often enough told that it makes some traders feel bad when I post strong or big gains on a call be it in private or public. Yet if I don't post the results what happens to the call? Is it still legitimate or do I have to explain myself later about what happened. I don't know about you but my memory is not photographic. So I like to make note about what and why ergo I have my calls with charts, long and short entries and targets all recorded. Well, then what? Once in a while we have such a great trade running that we have to do more and that's when things become more difficult, because if you as a trader did not enter a posted call and it goes stellar you may feel that you've missed out and I may look like I'm bragging (which I am, of course) but much more than that my intention, really, is to show how a trade can run well and what can be done to take advantage of the charts to our benefit.
You may have missed out on the trade, but if you get hung up on that idea, you will not learn to take advantage of the next opportunity with equal or maybe even better results. There are two things that I recommend traders to do. 1.) if you missed the initial move of a trade pay attention for the possibility of getting in on the next one. 2.) if you feel bad or resentful about missing a trade, look at the reason why you did not enter. It will help give insight into your way of thinking, because if you did not take advantage of one and you are feeling down about it, I can bet dollars to donuts that you have a repeating pattern there.
The most sobering analysis tends to be study. Study of habits of self and of the stock movements. "Studying" a stock chart need not take hours it just takes enough time to look and see what happened after you thought you should do something with a trade. Seen enough times, you may realize a pattern that works and no amount of lecturing will be as good as your own "AHA" moment.
Some traders feel there should be a bell set off by me when the "moment" is right. That, I am thinking is not teaching you anything but to be a follower and my intention is to teach you to sharpen your own eye and develop your own pattern trading to become a confident trader. Independence vs Dependence. So, the next time you see me "brag" about a good call you have a choice you can rejoice with me because you were in on the call, or you can again "shoot the messenger"* and be in the same spot as before.
don't shoot the messenger by Spoons on Grooveshark
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
* Please take that figuratively and not literally! Literally means "really" or "actually" or "in the strict sense of the word." Don't confuse it with figuratively, which means "in an analogous or metaphorical sense.