Tuesday, August 30, 2011

The Daily Note - An Elementary Budget Lesson

I was really surprised by the good news aspect of the report that the USA consumer spending was better than expected in July while the housing market was worse. At the same time, it is still amazes me that credit card spending is up and the reason given is that people are somehow feeling better about the economy. Added on is the report about small businesses still not hiring at a robust pace and the people they hire are working less hours. Somehow it all adds up to be a good sign for the economy.

OK then if spending and credit card debt is good for us and our economy, why don't we all just apply for 10 credit cards each and charge it to the hilt to save ourselves from disaster? I don't get it but maybe I need to go back to school to get this new math.

At the same time, another lesson seems to elude many, including those exalted officers of Congress and the Administration. Therefore the ongoing debate about why the USA was downgraded, the debt ceiling and what needs to be done about our debt. They just can't seem to agree about whether more debt is good math or less debt is good math.

So for those still in quandary, let's put it in simple math terms :

• U.S. Tax revenue: $2,170,000,000,000
• Fed budget: $3,820,000,000,000
• New debt: $ 1,650,000,000,000
• National debt: $14,271,000,000,000
• Recent budget cut: $ 38,500,000,000

Too many zeros for you? Let's remove 8 zeros and pretend it's a household budget:

• Annual family income: $21,700
• Money the family spent: $38,200
• New debt on the credit card: $16,500
• Outstandingg balance on the credit card: $142,710
• Total budget cuts: $385.

Still think credit card spending is good for your economy?
Never mind, because if you still don't get it, nothing will help; and therein lies the problem with Congress.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

The Daily Pick - DIA

©DayTrading with Anni 2011 All Rights Reserved

Sunday, August 28, 2011

The Daily Note - AAPL vs AAPL

I waited a few days to let the media hyping recede before writing my opinion of the recent announcement and outlook on AAPL stocks and company. I republished some of my previous articles about my thoughts on the matter some as old as 2 years, and in reviewing them I've decided to, pretty well, stay with my original thinking. Here's why.

As companies go, AAPL's brand is still Steve Jobs. Nothing more can prove my thinking that what I've read over and over again on the stream to boil it down it was: "I have to thank Steve Jobs for my wealth; his genius at visualization, innovation and production of what he promised."

The media was tripping over one and another announcer to sing about his praises and all about what he had contributed to the modern world. All well deserved, yet I didn't hear anyone say that he is a master marketer, which has a lot to do with what he achieved. All you have to do is listen to any of his presentations to be convinced of it and all you have to do is study the reactions to his appearance or lack thereof to be convinced about the import of the man. Hence his importance to the brand, Apple Inc.

As I pointed out in previous articles, brand and inventor have had many close ties before, as has the success or failure of such once the name behind the product departs, but in my opinion, this will be the first in a modern age of fast news, opinion and information via computers that Steve Jobs has helped to develop. Nothing will travel faster than the announcement of his death, as nothing traveled faster that the announcement of his retirement and his leaves of absence afore.

The halting of trades prior to this announcement was preceded by another halt when the first time he announced a leave of absence. That was more dramatic than any other time since, including the one we witnessed just last week. Yet who can gauge the next halt of trading for AAPL?

Although the resignation of Steve Jobs caused an immediate jolt, the timing was perfect because of the upcoming release of an awaited product, and the fact that his input will continue as long as he's able, from home. The fact that his products enable anyone to stay in touch and be on top of the game is immeasurable, but it does not factor in the real fact of Steve Jobs' health and the recent unfortunate public display of a photograph taken of him 2 days after announcement,  nor his possible death.  The next announcemnt may be days or months and I hope years from now, which no one can foretell and I'm sure they will keep under wraps as long as possible. For the man, I hope for the best, yet I'm also a realist and realize that not all scenarios end well.

Jobs put publicly his confidence in his successor, Tim Cook, and he sweetened it by a hefty "better not fail me" stock deal. Yet the next 18 months of Apple's performance will be actually on the back of products already planned by Jobs. So how far do we have to go to measure the new leader? To be fair to Cook the best scenario would be to allow time for his performance to shine in order for the following of AAPL to continue.

Cook will need time away from Jobs to prove himself  and only then can  the probability of his leadership be gauged but if Steve Jobs dies before, the confidence in AAPL may prove to be short lived in the short run at least.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

The Daily Pick - AAPL

©DayTrading with Anni 2011 All Rights Reserved

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

The Daily Note - Sharing the View

I love the StockTwits community and enjoy the people I've met since the beginning. From professionals to beginners it is a great place to share thoughts in an awesome community. I was one of the first ones on and knowing me, I'll be one of the last ones to leave. Twitter too has brought together many who for lack of other space would not be able to meet. So, reading some comments on the stream lately I've been surprised at the lack of compassion or understanding by a few.

As markets go, this market prefers optimism regardless of reality. There are enough new traders in the markets now who don't know how it was in 1999/2000 and that makes a difference. I know, I was new then and there were people talking about 1989. Just remember that fire tempers steel. Tuesday was another "can't do wrong day" or so it seemed to many of us who've been doing this a while; but just because it was, does not mean everybody did well or that everyone recognizes the opportunity. Truly these past two weeks have been a daytrader's dream, but not everyone is a daytrader.

But regardless of experience or type of investor/trader, it is important to remember that those tweets, messages and thoughts are a human connection. Many novice members and beginner traders who are on the StockTwits and Twitter streams are there to learn and find answers therefore comments that literally deride any other view or perhaps decision born out of a mistake may not be conducive to open discussion and learning.

There are people out there literally hurting, not only because of their own mistakes but perhaps because of mismanaged portfolios or misguided beliefs and the economy. They may be turning to the stream for ideas, they may be too reserved to ask questions. Therefore, helpful stories or comments may make a more positive impact and allow all to share a feeling for the possible rather than the impossible.

So, I'd like to list a few of my thoughts for consideration:

1. Although we rapidly throw about stock symbols, charts and figures, in the passion of a trade, we may sometimes forget that it all translates to real money: earnings, savings and often a lifetime of work.

2. Pointing out the obvious is really not helpful. Can you think of a solution? Write that instead.

3. Remember that without those who buy at the top, you would not be able to sell there, so be grateful for a liquid market. Buying at the top or selling at the bottom is really not as easy as it seems, but it's always remembered.

4. Yes, we all get angry and blame the world for what we did while cursing out ourselves, but does that have to be translated into hatred of a company or an officer of the company?

5. If you get an idea from someone else's message, acknowledge the person who brought it to you. Don't act if it was all yours alone. Discussions can be born out of sharing, not stealing.

6. If you learn something or, better yet, profit from a post take the time to tell the person, then when you need advice or help, they'll be more likely to respond to you. Remember it's a two way street. If everybody just takes the givers are none.

7. Careful about what you say or share. I am certain the way you talk on the stream is really the way you talk & think elsewhere, so disrespect is still disrespect no matter how anonymous. I am also sure most take it personally as well.

8. Lastly, most messages go by so fast, they're not read or even seen by most. Therefore, when you read something you like, share it by re-tweeting it, that is really the number one rule for sharing a view.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

The Daily Pick - DJIA DJT SPX YM_F ES_F NQ_F

©DayTrading with Anni 2011 All Rights Reserved

Monday, August 22, 2011

The Daily Note - History Repeats

I just stated in my room that I feel we are back in 2000 again. The year when high flying stocks kept imploding on each high, until there was little or nothing left of their former status. It's not that all companies became suddenly worthless, but for many their cult status dropped and for others, investors along with traders went for the exit doors. That is how values are determined by the mob. Run it up or down by favoritism, not by reality, but it does not last because traders are as fickle as faddy teenagers. Well, maybe a bit less. Still for self preservation, a trader or recent investor must exit or become a long time holder of less and less, unless really well hedged for balance. But hedging does not solve the problem of a company's stature in the eyes of the many.

Slow erosion kills perhaps more painfully than does a quick drop. Slow erosion allows for hope to bloom like a fungus. A quick drop will leave you breathless or maybe even with a survivable heart failure, but it will not allow you to grow cobwebs of indecision rendering you comatose in the end. Comatose where each move is seen but unable to move limb to stop the inevitable further loss.

As markets go, there is still hope in this one, I can read it daily in traders' comments. But what is missed here perhaps is the blame game that keeps growing, slowly paralyzing the markets. It's getting so bad on all levels that I could only recall what I wrote three years ago about the subject. I was also reminded because of the heavy blame that is being played by what seems to me everyone. Blame is easier for many because of the sheer feeling of helplessness, but what I wish to remind people and traders about a simple truth: If you keep blaming others, you will never look at yourself and the situation will continue to delude, but never change.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
It's a matter of survival

The Daily Pick - FAZ

©DayTrading with Anni 2011 All Rights Reserved

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

The Daily Note - Are You A Trader?

It's time to say it, and perhaps it's too late for some, but some traders should not be trading. Especially under current market conditions. These days can blow you wildly about and if you do not study the markets, the markets will gladly study you and take you out before you can say STOP. There are traders who ought to spend time analyzing why they are still trading. You know who you are.

You blame the situation, circumstances, timing, pricing, platforms, and whatever else which allow you to avoid looking at yourself. You refuse to take studying seriously, getting deeper into trouble and continuing to do the same moves, mistakes. Blaming others for your plight is not constructive. It's sad that you got into trouble, but most likely you got into trouble by not setting and following rules for yourself and if you do not examine your situation and take a serious analysis or your position, you will not come out well in the end.

So just start with a few steps:

1 Stop trading. Don't even look at a trade. Trading can be addictive. So be sure you can spend at least a week not trading. If you can't look away, you may have an addiction.

2 Look at all your past trades. Be honest. Who made you do them? Why did you take them, and if you didn't take profits when present, the most searching question can only be: Why is losing preferable to you?

3 Examine why you are really trading. Don't say money. That is a non answer here. There are many ways to earn money, so if you insist that you are trading to earn money, that is a lie because you don't lose money with most other occupations.

By taking the time to do the above three steps, you will be able to take a fourth one. A constructive one to lead you to become a trader if that is what you decided you truly wish to be. Realize that it's only the start but you will also realize it becomes more exciting because you are in control now.

4. Start writing trading rules for yourself. Go ahead write them all down that come to mind. There will be plenty of time to weed them down. First you have to recognize that there are many rules in this business and you need to find the ones that fit your personality and situation th best.

By doing these steps you are putting yourself in control of your actions, by becoming constructive rather than destructive of your self and your wealth. Trading is not for everyone, and not everyone is a trader; the sooner you realize it the better for you. Then, if you find yourself in the wrong place at the wrong time, you can gracefully depart to live a happier life as a result.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

The Daily Pick - DJIA

©DayTrading with Anni 2011 All Rights Reserved

Sunday, August 14, 2011

A Weekend Note - What It's All About

This picture made my Sunday, and probably my week and more. Another best greeting evvver from across the globe. It puts a smile on my face,and thus a glow into my life. It's because it's human that I can't think of anything better that could happen right now. It's because my blog has never been nor was intended to be just about trading; it's also about life. It's not just about the next trading call I can deliver on this vast, wide, world of the internet, it's also about people I meet and friends I make.

The social media is like a beacon into the blackness of space, each tweet hoping to connect to other "intelligent life" in its cosmos. How many tweets go out day and night that per chance meet with another to share more than just a tweet or two? How many last a few days? How many last through years? That's why it's special and even though eventually the rocks will get washed away, the memory will forever put a smile on my face.

Happy Living, Trading and Meeting Special Friends

©DayTrading with Anni 2010 All Rights Reserved

Thursday, August 11, 2011

The Daily Note - Another Great Day

I was pondering @ppearlman 's straw poll about whether $SPY has bottomed, and the unusually great hits of my Subscriber PlayList this past weeks, when I recalled a previous "A Great Day" I wrote about nearly four years ago. Then I was exploring consensus thinking but especially negative thinking after listening, reading and reporting it through the Bush administration years.

As we all know by now, those years of pounding negativity finally came to fruition that year and continued to plague. Until quite recently, however, the opposite has been true. Most of the news media pumped positive outlooks even if they had to hold their noses, and eventually that too came to fruition until .. well, this past few days.

Consensus thinking is hard to be against, but if we are to survive as individuals, we must strive to keep thinking individually and to be careful about group think. The latter is much more difficult in today's world than even as recent as the last decade, for reasons stated in the original article and also state once more in this one. The availability and ability of spreading thought via the social media. Communication delivered in such a way is like with advertisement; if stated well it is more likely believed than if it's "just the facts, ma'am".

Looking at just the facts, things don't look so good. I think the market reflected it when many finally realized perhaps that 0% interest means "zero interest" as in available, and also means slow and little incremental growth. So, we tanked. Then, as I've mentioned often before, the only place we have left with for investing our money, if banks pay no interest on our deposits, is the markets , but particularly which market is important to note.

The EU was certainly a contender a few years back but look what has happened. Outlook being what markets are about, with more countries threatened by bankruptcy there, we here in the USA are the most likely to survive any major world depression. Not country but the markets. Reason, is we have the history. What many do not mention is that the great depression here in the USA back in the 30's was not limited to the USA. It was all over the world and especially in Europe and as we know, the consequence of which great monsters emerged: Hitler, Stalin, Mussolini, Mao and WWII. Of course if I really had more time or more of your attention, I would trace it back even further to be born out of a previous depression which wasn't as much felt in the USA as the rest of the world, and out of which Marxism took a strong foothold be they called Marxists, Progressives, Leninists, Socialists, Bolsheviks et al. Suffice to say they did not pay great interest on investments so the USA was the only place then too.

So it goes, history repeats, although we have yet to identify the monsters and hopefully we'll only have imaginary ones.

So, do I think the market has bottomed? No, because the fluctuations are too great. The Great Day article four years back spoke of it then too. Calling trades with 10 point moves was more difficult then and it was not over. The past four days I've had multiple trade calls with as much as 30+ point gains not just 10 point movers up and down. PlayList View Week81 Consensus thinking moves markets but it has to be consensus in one direction or another which, currently it is not, therefore market is on a bungee cord and predictable only so far as it allows before it bottoms on an ever slower fluctuation.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

The Daily Pick - DJIA

©DayTrading with Anni 2011 All Rights Reserved

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

The Daily Note - Winds of Change, Again

Right now I am just about to pull the plug.. everything except my life, which will happily continue. I always feel this way when I need to look at what I need to let go. It's a bit of a shaky feeling when one decides to change. Location, outlook, life, plans, seem to flash in front of eyes many of which beckon not to be forgotten. But change cannot happen with a filled up life, it can only happen when there is room for it. So, something has to be let go for something new to be welcomed. As often said, when life closes a window, look for a door to open. But too often we let life force that change upon us after giving numerous opportunities to plan it, and execute it ourselves.

In my opinion it's best to change when the thought first occurs, not when life forces make it happen. So, sometimes we have to close the window ourselves in order to walk through a door.

Think of it this way. You're comfortable trading, holding your positions, even nursing them to health and watch them grow. Once grown, you cannot let go, for one reason or another, you tell yourself to hang on a little bit longer, the market will continue, the market will deliver your best plan, even though you know that the winds of change are blowing and soon may try to blow down your well built brick house, you hope that yours will be spared. Then it hits and you stand there bricks around your ankles. (wolves are everywhere aren't they alfa lobo?) Your positions blown away and you are left to do triage on your portfolio deciding which positions will be spared for nursing back from near death, if you're lucky and if you are a hands-on investor / trader.

I've been there and done that twice and I've seen it happen often, preparing taxes for clients and seen the carnage of many a brick house. I am glad I will not witness it this year, since I no longer do tax service, but I don't sleep well for the world when things are so much manipulated because I know that many brick houses will become dust, again. It is why I strongly advocate studying the markets, not just learning about how to invest. In my opinion, the best way to manage your investments, is to do it yourself, the worst way is to let someone else, possibly as or more incompetent to do it for you. With all the information available today, it doesn't take a much to find excellent help.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

The Daily Pick - DJIA

©DayTrading with Anni 2011 All Rights Reserved

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

the Daily Note - BlueBird

OK, as of today, I am no longer writing anything negative about anything. I'll just write about blue skies and blue birds of happiness. That is all everyone wants to read about and wants to hear. So, I'll stop the negativity too. Done!

All you have to do is adopt my attitude, smile and just keep buying with the same positive outlook as you have thus far, and everything will be just fine. Just wait and see, everything will keep going up, up, up.. charts, your wealth, your prices, your interest, your happiness and your hope for more wealth and happiness.

Don't believe me? Try it and you'll see, keep smiling, close your eyes and you'll see nothing but blue skies and blue birds, nothing else. So, what are you waiting for? Look, but don't look too far, the blue bird is in your own backyard. Just don't venture outside the gates, reality may hit like a 2x4 right between the eyes.

Felt it yet? Now you have multitude of blue birds flying around your head ;) Lucky you.
Have a nice blue (skies and birds) day

Happy Trading, Living and Chirping,

The Daily Pick - DJI

©DayTrading with Anni 2011 All Rights Reserved