Wednesday, July 14, 2010

The Daily Note - This Ain't the Summer of Love

The daily patterns are there the same hot start and slow finish, low volume.Usually this time of year pivots on earnings.  Good, bad, whispers, expectations and the day more or less works around announcements and news watch.   Somewhere in the middle of the day: lingering lunches in the park no rush to return early for afternoon trading. Fairly predictable, you say?

This good start of summer earnings season is nice and I'm already seeing some traders being lulled into a euphoric state. Dancing has the same effect on me and sometimes I wonder which is more dangerous, but usually I snap out of it in time to get home safely. I wonder, however, if many traders do?  All we have to remember is the FlashAttack or perhaps another AAPL day. Certainly AAPL was an unexpected free fall today affording some action outside of earnings. Not to mention RIG and BP another diversion which seems to forever fascinate speculators about who to hate next in the Gulf oil leak.

Nevertheless, I wonder how long this will last? How far are we forecasting? Today's announcement that our deficit sits at 1Trillion dollars no longer phases anyone. Warning by a financial committee chair that we have a "growing" problem not a "going" problem seems not to register. New 2000 page financial bill doesn't cross curious analytic thoughts, even when mentioned that it does not change the rules which got us into the mess.  Have we gotten that numb to the state of affairs and gotten lulled back into the feelings of well being?   When I see traders talk how we are out of the woods, I wish I could dance in a meadow with flowers in my hair, but this ain't the summer of love.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

The Daily Pick - EDU

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