Monday, March 1, 2010

The Daily Note - Green Shoots

Green shoots emerging everywhere brings ones mind to springtime. It's been warming up and along with the shoots emerging it seems so is optimism. I'm not sure how well structured it is, because optimism comes naturally in springtime, it's part of our makeup to look forward to the earth thawing and welcoming new growth.

Whether the new growth will grow strong roots is yet to be determined. Many new fledgling plants die in a late freeze. Some also point out accurately, that this optimism in the markets started earlier than spring and was even forced, propped up and manufactured. It may be yet there are signs that the bears are receding into the woods, having been exposed and smarting. It is also said that when most pick up the banner of optimism, it's a sure sign of reversal.

Yes, it's springtime, when storms are still brewing ready to freeze early plants and sunshine breaks through the clouds warming the earth, encouraging those green shoots to grow everywhere. I think people warm faster to optimism than they cool to pessimism, even when faced with the worst of conditions. It is why humans survive the worst disasters be it man made or natural.

Yet, the real danger for traders is in taking sides. Believing in the optimism theory that the green shoots are forecasters of nothing but upside, they may get gutted by the bear. Believing that early optimism is a setup for a late freeze, they may get gored by the bull. Traders need to watch the skies daily for signs of storms and count the survivors for clues about freeze or a thaw, and still need to be weary about the promises made by/to those who may have a bigger agenda in play, if we are to avoid being buried in sudden change in the weather.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

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