Monday, June 22, 2009

SPX Update: The Fed Watch Is On

Will it rally or will it fizzle? the 50dma is sitting just under the 200dma this double support could bode well for the S&P because it tends to be strong both is anticipation and in fear; the fear of losing out. For all the hubub, the S&P didn't really move much Friday; opening and and closing prices were within a couple of points.

The hesitation here or the continued treading will probably not end until the FOMC meeting and announcement and the results of the Treasury Auction becomes available.

That is not to say that we are unable to trade this because there's enough volatility with the fears battling each other to put in a trade or two, but those who do, better be ready for a quick and possibly sharp swing in the market.

There's also the discussion on the net about the Fed's motivations behind the markets remember that the enemy is the "expectation". It is better to be ready for anything than to presume we know what will happen and why. Without expectation, you can be ready for anything, and react much quicker to changes.

There are always possibilities and SPX is no exception: SPX will drop toward the 200 dma around 902 or raise toward the 950 at good/bad news with more volatility. It can follow the 50dma up or it can drop with both the 200 and 50 down to below 900. The range is highlighted in a red box on the chart. Note that there were 11 days consolidating the bottom and 11 days consolidating the top of that range. Fascinating rhythm !

Happy Trading, Dancing and Living

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