Sunday, November 25, 2007

Moving with the Rhythm

I just finished a Lynch Bages vertical wine tasting dinner with long time friends. We opened '82, '85, '86, '88, '89 vintages; not one to be said a bad one all from our respective cellars. Not one palate in total agreement and not one palate off. Interesting that this was the least consensus we've had in number of years. I'm glad I am not a big collector of these wines, but I also know from experience that they were great at one time. As I oft said, everything moves in rhythm and none of these wines were in rhythm. Not one of us said, we wish we had more of this or that vintage yet not one of these vintages were bad and not one stood out as memorable. Keep in mind that these wines have been hot on the auction block of late.

I've noticed the same about some stocks of late. RIMM, GOOG, BIDU the darlings of the past yet not one in perfect symmetry or rhythm. At one time you could pick GOOG and know that BIDU would follow, respectively you could pick RIMM and count on 2-5 points easy. Yet lately, GOOG has been an sleeper, RIMM has traded sideways most often than not, and we are left with BIDU and the China bubble burst; or so it seems. So what to make of it? Not one thing in common yet so much is. Everything has it's up time and everything has it's downtime. The stemmy, almost vegetal, hard quality of most of the wines tonight reminds us not of great luscious fruit of the past we so associated with Lynch Bages. Will they come around in the next decade? Doubt it, they've had their time and yet we shall see in 5 years, after all this is Pauillac and not a bad bottle in the 5 vintages; but as many said around the table sell sell sell, while others disappointed said drink them up, not one said buy. A lot of stocks on a downturn have the same nay and glee sayers.. nay=don't buy; glee=glad I don't own it.. but who's to say what will be in 5 years. Often I've seen wines turn and evolve, like stocks when most don't buy is the signal to buy; and in 5 years one might say: "wish I had more of that vintage".

As to the wine of the evening, my vote goes to the Paul Bara 1998 vintage Brut Champagne, beautiful mousse, green apples galore, full mouth fill and still lingers in memory which makes it a sure bet for me.

Happy Trading Everyone.

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