Wednesday, March 2, 2011

The Daily Note - When Caesar Falls

I do not recall ever having so much riding on one man, except MSFT in it's early days but even then not this much accolades or adoration.

AAPL as a company is good enough, but without Steve Jobs would it be riding so high? Not if you read the tape when he appears and watch when his life is in limbo. It's been a couple of years since first I thought he may need to slowly ween off his followers and separate himself from the product but even two years ago it was too late, and now even more so.

I don't think the reaction in the markets is as much merit driven as it is anticipation driven. I am speaking of the product when I say merit. There are people all over the world that hold AAPL products as status symbols and willing to pay the price. Like a LouisVuitton bag or a Rolex that screams success to all and known by name alone, AAPL too has taken a pedestal near them. Now, just holding the AAPL symbol is enough for a rise in price. (China loves these names as they can make billions off the copies)

There is just one difference however, a missing factor between them: The companies mentioned continue to flourish after their creator has long stepped down because they are followed by creators equal to the task and where Apple has yet to be really tested.

AAPL given it's history, barely survived the first time Steve Jobs and Stephen Wozniak stepped away. It took Steve Job's return to revive the company. The second time upon Steve Jobs' illness, the confidence in the company dived, and now, today, once again on a new product announcement, rather than soaring price of AAPL on the market due to the merit of the product went lagging until Steve Jobs showed up at the "fair".

I'm not the only one pointing to such obvious caution flags, yet it seems not to matter. What it demonstrates best however is that mobs can decide on who rules, deciding its excellence, merit or demerit, just because they like the deliverer of the message, and paying no attention to the longer term consequences or to what can happen when Caesar falls.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

P.S. Author has no present investment in Apple, day/swing trades it regularly, owns and uses an iTouch, has no animosity toward any of its products or its founders and wishes them no ill but only fair sailing and good health.

The Daily Pick - AAPL

©DayTrading with Anni 2011 All Rights Reserved

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