Thursday, March 27, 2014

The Market Outlook Update - Putin, Ukraine and EU Concerns

*****I'm an optimist except where Putin is concerned, but I've  been saying that for years, so now what? Listen to me or listen to others the idea that peace comes through disarmament creates an illusion that has been driven into us for decades by the very people who would use their arms to attack.

Think of it this way. To say that by cutting off your arms you will be able to defend your home, is not only foolish it's dangerous. To say that by extending nothing but appeasement to the thieves, rapists and murderers of your community will not keep you safe. The EU needs to learn to defend itself against those who wish to kidnap its interest to ransom because that is exactly what Putin will do with the gas and oil pipelines it means to control.  He's had them in his sight since the disgrace of losing not only the Cold War but equally importantly the pipeline war to Reagan. Again, history helps here to understand what is to come. The pipelines wars have not stopped, only got cloaked in peaceful agreements née appeasements; but make no mistake control of the pipelines from the middle east will make all the difference to the EU and the US. Putin knows this and has had them his grand plan to restore Russia's glory and will have them in total control sooner now that the EU and USA does nothing about Ukraine.

While the world forgets and our governments decide to ignore the Budapest Agreement of 1994  Putin watches with interest how the West once more can be taken advantage of just like with the Yalta (Crimea) and Potsdam Conferences of  1945 where the same three powers agreed on restoration of European countries. History knows how that agreement was honored by the Russians with millions persecuted and dead on the Central and Eastern side of Europe.

Those who think this has nothing to do with the markets and trading I can only ask to think ahead. The future of the USA and how it can conduct business is very much in play with these events. How the US government handles Putin's aggression will not only foretell our future strength, but also the future markets. Our ability to produce and sell will be effected. Consider that the EU may become less and less able to protect itself from Eastern aggression. Will we be able to step up the will to honor our agreements? Bigger question still, will we be able to protect ourselves?  I'm not for fighting wars but I'm definitely in the camp of preventing them from strength.

There is no good news.  I've been waiting to write this article for quite some time, but my optimism prevented my intuition to speak. We are now beginning to experience what it is to be in a weak position. What I see now is becoming possible only because of the mentality that all things "good" mean that it has to come from "peace at all costs". In other words, the disarmament symbol hijacked to become a peace symbol  is costing us.  It's costing us not only our strength but also our freedoms, but most of all our belief in our ability to be the beacon of light of which Reagan spoke in his farewell address.  Will Poland be next after the Ukraine, once again?

 I'll still remain an optimist but (hopefully) not a fool.

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

 The Weekly Outlook Update  26Mar14 -   $DJIA $SPX $NDX

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