Friday, December 31, 2010

The Daily Note - As Predictions Go, Looking Back

I don't generally do long term predictions.  Many psychics agree that there are too many variables and we cannot deny freedom of choice by everyone who can effect the outcome.  Like with life, it's easier to look back.  So imagine my surprise about a prediction I wrote last year and, which, I forgot about until a reader congratulated me for it the other day.

There certainly were plenty of variables this past year, as in any year,  in the $DJI yet I did  a pretty good job about being able to pinpoint certain pivots and tops and bottoms here is the prediction written Jan 03.2010:

Short below 10400 to about 10350, breaking below 10320 to about 10270, 10200 then 10127 areas. Break down of 10000 we'll see 9900-9800 retest. 
Long above 10500 to retest 10550 breaking above to near 10600 after which 11000 will be possible with regular intervals. Moving higher on strong momentum the 11200, 11400 and 11800 can be revisited once again. 
We are still working on the high, so far it is 11625
Low was  9614.32

Tops were : 10729.89,  11258.01, 10920.27, 10175.02, 10594.06, 10400.10, 11216.65 11591.13 high and last
Bottoms were: 9835.09,  9774.48, 9757.55, Low 9614.32, 9941.84 , 11023.5, 10942.98 last

Missed low by 185 missed high by 175 which means roughly 175 point shift lower on high/low would have nailed it.

So much for predictions, although I feel pretty good about this one, my first, and if I use some of my quirky trajectory plotting, we are still on track to 10800 but it does not guarantee that we won't see some lows again.

Hope you had a fantastic year as well, I'm looking to see more of you next year around here and on the dance floor!

Happy New Year and do the most Living you can!

The Daily Pick - 2010 DJIA

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