The Daily Note - As Predictions Go, Looking Back

I don't generally do long term predictions.  Many psychics agree that there are too many variables and we cannot deny freedom of choice by everyone who can effect the outcome.  Like with life, it's easier to look back.  So imagine my surprise about a prediction I wrote last year and, which, I forgot about until a reader congratulated me for it the other day.

There certainly were plenty of variables this past year, as in any year,  in the $DJI yet I did  a pretty good job about being able to pinpoint certain pivots and tops and bottoms here is the prediction written Jan 03.2010:

Short below 10400 to about 10350, breaking below 10320 to about 10270, 10200 then 10127 areas. Break down of 10000 we'll see 9900-9800 retest. 
Long above 10500 to retest 10550 breaking above to near 10600 after which 11000 will be possible with regular intervals. Moving higher on strong momentum the 11200, 11400 and 11800 can be revisited once again. 
Actual:
We are still working on the high, so far it is 11625
Low was  9614.32

Tops were : 10729.89,  11258.01, 10920.27, 10175.02, 10594.06, 10400.10, 11216.65 11591.13 high and last
Bottoms were: 9835.09,  9774.48, 9757.55, Low 9614.32, 9941.84 , 11023.5, 10942.98 last

Missed low by 185 missed high by 175 which means roughly 175 point shift lower on high/low would have nailed it.

So much for predictions, although I feel pretty good about this one, my first, and if I use some of my quirky trajectory plotting, we are still on track to 10800 but it does not guarantee that we won't see some lows again.

Hope you had a fantastic year as well, I'm looking to see more of you next year around here and on the dance floor!



Happy New Year and do the most Living you can!
Anni



The Daily Pick - 2010 DJIA

©DayTrading with Anni 2010 All Rights Reserved

Happy Holidays!

2010

SEASON'S GREETINGS

Wishing you and yours a 

 Merry Christmas  

and 

Joyful Holidays

Anni

©DayTrading with Anni 2010 All Rights Reserved

The Daily Note - Rules of the Road

An old song I heard not long ago about being too late and getting on home. Reminds me that it is the last two weeks of the year and it is rather too late to plan any adjustments prior to the close of year. It's best to have had it all execute by now. To be "home" on time it takes as much planning as getting there. So exits have to be honored as much as entries in any position.

If there is one recurring message in all posts that I read, consciously or unconsciously intended is that your rules need to be honored. Although I extend this thought in a different direction on my other blog, trading requires rules and today I wish to drive home the point that no trading method will work unless you learn to honor its rules. Try as you may to define it differently the truth is that freedom and life require rules and in order to gain your freedom from whatever you're seeking you need to follow the rules to get you there. Without it, you will remain the slave of those who wish to define your life be it your boss, or your lender.

You may wish to kick open a box or too on the way , but giving up on rules that have worked for others also has it's consequences; namely, you will have to invent a new method which is time consuming work and you may lose a lot of capital on the way. But if you so choose it, the rules are still to be defined and tested for validity, and you still have to follow them to succeed. So, in short, you cannot avoid rules in your life no matter how you wish to live.

The sooner you realize this simple fact, and discipline yourself to follow it, the faster you'll be on your road to your freedom.

So for your Christmas present, write up your rules:

1. Don't enter a trade without a plan and a vision
2. Set your stops and let them work
3. Profits, they are gifts of your work so take them and give thanks.

Fill in whatever you need to complete the rule plan for yourself. Don't make it long. Probably only 2 or 3 is all you'll need. Don't complicate it. Simple always works better.



Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
and a Merry Christmas to all
Anni



The Daily Pick - MOS

©DayTrading with Anni 2010 All Rights Reserved