Fighting a Battle (Part II) Visions of Change and Hope

My quote: " When the many have so much hatred for one man (justified or not) it creates the mob from which revolutions become reality." In this way the Socialist Marxists (Bolsheviks) toppled a Monarchy and in this way they may topple the greatest Republic ever to grace mankind. I am using the word "revolution" in the true sense.. which does not mean there has to be a gunshot but it means turning around/over. Unfortunately, death occurs regardless how bloodless the coup; and the numbers of them are more hidden when the battle is not fought openly. Afterward once the elation wanes, you may find that the "change" you wished for is not exactly what you envisioned and hoped for. Those two words, "change" and "hope", are indefinable for the many because they are very individual and therefore it's impossible to carry out in your vision but it's very possible to carry it out in the vision of the one you give power to. Hence, "be careful what you wish for" comes to mind because all wishes give power of the vision to the granter of them and not the beggar of them.

The above was written by me a while ago but what brought it to mind again is that , Alexandr Solzhenitsyn died, so in honor I took out my copy (rather my father's copy) of his book: The Gulag Archipelago. A book with many highlighted passages and with lots of marginal notes left by my father who barely survived some of that horror. Perhaps Solzhenitsyn's death is a timely signal with a purpose for all of us to remember that we are not immune to making mistakes that cause much pain for future generations. It happens when we dismiss facts and run after hopes. It happens when we hand over power to others only too willing to run our lives.

Today's trading day was one very much like that. Waiting with almost complete stillness for a body of men to decide what the future of our money's value will be. That magical hour came and then traders waited for someone else to analyze it's results. I've been watching in amusement for years. It's almost comical if it weren't so tragic, because it shows that so many are very willing to have others decide how they should interpret facts and opinions. Resulting in a group mentality which totally ignores the fact that this country is doing well, despite the publicized so called worry in Washington. It ignores that this country has been creating more wealth since 2003, resulting in the most tax revenue collected in the last 4 consecutive years than ever before in history. It ignores the fact that the rest of the world is still growing and still in need of our equipment, education and inventions. It also ignores the fact that most businesses are not effected by it because most businesses serve the local community and not the world. We may be in a slowdown now, but we haven't imploded and I doubt we will if we continue the fine American tradition of ingenuity. We will not solve the energy shortage, nor the mortgage defaults in Washington. We will not solve the job losses or gains there either. Where it will be solved will be among the people living here, willing to risk and invest in their own ideas as they see a solution for a need. Despite all that you may hear or read that's how it's been done. The electric car has been available for many years for anyone who wanted one and not at a prohibitive cost. The light bulb was not invented in Washington, nor was the automobile, the airplane nor any miracle drug, or almost anything else that you can think of. It was it's people that created the most successful country in the world. It happened with hard work, much failure and finally success, mostly without fanfare amongst it's citizens and not in Washington.

Traders and investors will continue to flock to stocks (read companies) that are successful in bringing innovation to the forefront and available to all. But nothing can make people embrace what they do not want or are ready for. Unless, of course, you elect a government that will tell you what you can or can't do, can or can't have, what to think or not think, all because you gave it too much power to decide for you what is good for you or not. Drill or not to drill (for oil) is no longer up to the need of the people, nor up to the companies that helped build this country to greatness. They are now bad, shunned, entities labeled a greedy bunch. So in order to teach them a lesson, this government thinks it's best to send trillions of dollars overseas than to keep that money at home available to it's citizens. That's how a government with too much power solves problems, all the while pointing fingers and blaming others for it's lack of action. Ignoring the people's desire is dangerous, but blaming one man for it is even more so.

An Evening with Kosta-Browne

It's no secret that I enjoy wine and it's no secret I enjoy trading. So what does one have to do with the other? They're both a challenge, they both require study, both need to be practiced and they're both rewarding. They both can also be tedious and that's where you come in.

Like with anything we do, a large part of the enjoyment is in sharing the experience. Who we share with is often unknown when attending a wine tasting event or when together with a group of traders via the Internet. Serendipity however seems to always play a role as it did the other evening. Attending a special tasting of Kosta-Browne wines, I found myself drawn to sit with a couple at one of the large tables, although there was still ample space for any other choice when I arrived. It turned out that they are from Marin County, you know the place, the one that brought you Pelosi and Boxer. Pledging, as usual, to keep my comments to wine, I was later surprised to hear that in his travels many years back he visited Hungary while it was still under a communist regime and his clear comment that most Americans cannot relate to how suppressive that system is. Oh my! Turning my interest away from wine and onto conversation on the subject, I think I uttered something fascinating like: "We may soon find out" and wondered in quiet introspect how much insight most of us hold back for reasons of acceptance.

As tasters and traders we are often asked for our opinion and have the opportunity to share our thoughts about wines and the markets. Often there's silence until someone breaks the ice yet it's not necessarily followed by a lot of hands. Many of us don't share everything and most don't share anything about what we think or know, in an unfamiliar setting, even though we are drawn together by mutual interests. Yet in the same area, in private conversations, we feel safe to say our opinion. Why? What is the difference whether we share with one or many the same opinion? The wine will still taste the same, the market will still move up or down and politics will still be dangerous and maddening; or will it?

Wines have distinct flavors and nuances, indigenous to the varietal of the grape, which can be elusive especially to the novice but when a fellow taster shares, we can have an "aha" (oh that's it!) moment as someone points out the cloves, raspberries, roses, violets, cherries, smoked bacon, cedar, stems, dark chocolate (yes, I'm drinking Pinot) Likewise in trading sharing a possible trade and what setup we're looking at can create the same "aha" moment. So someone sharing their view alters our experience by teaching us what we can look for. Is it not the safest way to learn when we talk about our thinking; sharing so we can also hear, see and taste other views?

Putting out our thoughts to a larger audience, I think, has to do with confidence; or the lack thereof. Lack of confidence in our knowledge, of not being "masters" and fear of being wrong. Why? Ask yourself: why do we anoint some people as "experts" and how did they get there? As I mentioned in the first paragraph, it takes practice to be good at anything. It's not all study and education; it's a willingness to be "out there"; to put "ass on the line" "teats to the wall" or let it "all hang out". Is it not the best way to learn when we risk something? Yes, some may snicker, some may criticise, some may even call you names but you can only get better, not worse for the trying.

A Matter of Trust (Part III)

Trust becomes a key issue when on a computer with others because the computer allows us to cloak ourselves and not reveal truly who we are if we so choose and/or deceive if we so choose as well. It allows us to appear larger, better, superior, or more modest, humble and meek. On the other hand associating through a computer also allows us to reveal ourselves more completely due to the ability to stay anonymous. It is probably safe to say that some of all of the above plays into most of the relationships online. It's also probably safe to say that as we interact more frequently, we reveal ourselves more completely and in time we can extend more trust in each other.

I was thus challenged with the thought when I joined a new room of traders; many it seems with great credentials and much experience; newbies, oldies, experts and mentors alike with diverse interests. I've been with a group of online friends for so long, that jumping into a "vat" of strangers I found myself wondering: It's been years where I've felt so much internal pressure to "show me".

Like anywhere else, the longer we know someone, the more trust we place in their abilities. Trust does not happen overnight it is developed over time. Therefore belonging to a group of traders over a longer period of time, by nature, allows us to learn intricacies and styles which in turn gives us more opportunities for good trades.

Ultimately it's not what we can do for each other but what we can learn from each other. It takes trust to learn. (to be continued)

So look for me at my new digs: http://www.mytrade.com/ and less formally at http://www.twitter.com/ who knows where this may lead.