Tuesday, July 24, 2012

The Daily Note - AAPL Earnings Thoughts

AAPL was holding up most of this market for the last quarter in my opinion and I was saying it on some of my outlook reports on YouTube. I also used to say, and got often hammered for it, that Steve Jobs was a marketing genius and the one who was behind AAPL's success as a result. A few times I also mentioned that all kings of mountains eventually have to crumble just because they stick out to be competition targets.. RIMM was mentioned by me as an example among others, like Nokia, Motorola. But, alas, some people kept thinking I was nuts or worse. I, on the other hand, thought that many were blind to the cultism that AAPL products became, which drove much of its sales. AAPL and Steve Jobs were both thought of in the same breath, therefore I wrote some articles about the possibility of more difficult times ahead if and when Steve Jobs moved on.

I never took away from the fact that AAPL was a good product and that their product filled many needs, but in some things I'm a realist and not a romantic. Inventors and inventions in entrepreneur hands tend to make my vision realistic. There are many people out there with a better wheel perhaps or need for no wheel pretty soon, and that is when the future becomes the past. Horse buggies too had their day in the sun.

Now, today, we had an earnings miss, with outlook down, which dropped AAPL 40+ points from day's high. I'm not gloating, it happens that way and kings don't get toppled easily, so I'm not saying it's over by a long shot. Still we all have to remember that Steve Jobs' marketing genius is no longer in play, and Tim Cook still has some proving to do to satisfy not only the cultists but the shoppers who are now looking for more bang for the $buck as the economy falters ever lower with USA being still the last best hope.

Which also reminds me that we need to remember this is an election year. Part of the agenda is to make it worse before better, if the economy looks really bad now and the rescue comes, all will breathe a sigh of relief? Buy into the "hope & change" again? Look to the king and kingpin Bernanke to make sure that by election time we can be "green at any cost" and AAPL will rise again.

Cool Change by Little River Band on Grooveshark

Happy Trading, Living and Dancing

The Daily Pick - AAPL
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1 comment:

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