The Daily Note - An Elementary Budget Lesson

I was really surprised by the good news aspect of the report that the USA consumer spending was better than expected in July while the housing market was worse. At the same time, it is still amazes me that credit card spending is up and the reason given is that people are somehow feeling better about the economy. Added on is the report about small businesses still not hiring at a robust pace and the people they hire are working less hours. Somehow it all adds up to be a good sign for the economy.

OK then if spending and credit card debt is good for us and our economy, why don't we all just apply for 10 credit cards each and charge it to the hilt to save ourselves from disaster? I don't get it but maybe I need to go back to school to get this new math.

At the same time, another lesson seems to elude many, including those exalted officers of Congress and the Administration. Therefore the ongoing debate about why the USA was downgraded, the debt ceiling and what needs to be done about our debt. They just can't seem to agree about whether more debt is good math or less debt is good math.

So for those still in quandary, let's put it in simple math terms :


• U.S. Tax revenue: $2,170,000,000,000
• Fed budget: $3,820,000,000,000
• New debt: $ 1,650,000,000,000
• National debt: $14,271,000,000,000
• Recent budget cut: $ 38,500,000,000

Too many zeros for you? Let's remove 8 zeros and pretend it's a household budget:

• Annual family income: $21,700
• Money the family spent: $38,200
• New debt on the credit card: $16,500
• Outstandingg balance on the credit card: $142,710
• Total budget cuts: $385.

Still think credit card spending is good for your economy?
Never mind, because if you still don't get it, nothing will help; and therein lies the problem with Congress.



Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni



The Daily Pick - DIA

©DayTrading with Anni 2011 All Rights Reserved

The Daily Note - AAPL vs AAPL

I waited a few days to let the media hyping recede before writing my opinion of the recent announcement and outlook on AAPL stocks and company. I republished some of my previous articles about my thoughts on the matter some as old as 2 years, and in reviewing them I've decided to, pretty well, stay with my original thinking. Here's why.

As companies go, AAPL's brand is still Steve Jobs. Nothing more can prove my thinking that what I've read over and over again on the stream to boil it down it was: "I have to thank Steve Jobs for my wealth; his genius at visualization, innovation and production of what he promised."

The media was tripping over one and another announcer to sing about his praises and all about what he had contributed to the modern world. All well deserved, yet I didn't hear anyone say that he is a master marketer, which has a lot to do with what he achieved. All you have to do is listen to any of his presentations to be convinced of it and all you have to do is study the reactions to his appearance or lack thereof to be convinced about the import of the man. Hence his importance to the brand, Apple Inc.

As I pointed out in previous articles, brand and inventor have had many close ties before, as has the success or failure of such once the name behind the product departs, but in my opinion, this will be the first in a modern age of fast news, opinion and information via computers that Steve Jobs has helped to develop. Nothing will travel faster than the announcement of his death, as nothing traveled faster that the announcement of his retirement and his leaves of absence afore.

The halting of trades prior to this announcement was preceded by another halt when the first time he announced a leave of absence. That was more dramatic than any other time since, including the one we witnessed just last week. Yet who can gauge the next halt of trading for AAPL?

Although the resignation of Steve Jobs caused an immediate jolt, the timing was perfect because of the upcoming release of an awaited product, and the fact that his input will continue as long as he's able, from home. The fact that his products enable anyone to stay in touch and be on top of the game is immeasurable, but it does not factor in the real fact of Steve Jobs' health and the recent unfortunate public display of a photograph taken of him 2 days after announcement,  nor his possible death.  The next announcemnt may be days or months and I hope years from now, which no one can foretell and I'm sure they will keep under wraps as long as possible. For the man, I hope for the best, yet I'm also a realist and realize that not all scenarios end well.

Jobs put publicly his confidence in his successor, Tim Cook, and he sweetened it by a hefty "better not fail me" stock deal. Yet the next 18 months of Apple's performance will be actually on the back of products already planned by Jobs. So how far do we have to go to measure the new leader? To be fair to Cook the best scenario would be to allow time for his performance to shine in order for the following of AAPL to continue.

Cook will need time away from Jobs to prove himself  and only then can  the probability of his leadership be gauged but if Steve Jobs dies before, the confidence in AAPL may prove to be short lived in the short run at least.



Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni


The Daily Pick - AAPL

©DayTrading with Anni 2011 All Rights Reserved

The Daily Note - Sharing the View

I love the StockTwits community and enjoy the people I've met since the beginning. From professionals to beginners it is a great place to share thoughts in an awesome community. I was one of the first ones on and knowing me, I'll be one of the last ones to leave. Twitter too has brought together many who for lack of other space would not be able to meet. So, reading some comments on the stream lately I've been surprised at the lack of compassion or understanding by a few.

As markets go, this market prefers optimism regardless of reality. There are enough new traders in the markets now who don't know how it was in 1999/2000 and that makes a difference. I know, I was new then and there were people talking about 1989. Just remember that fire tempers steel. Tuesday was another "can't do wrong day" or so it seemed to many of us who've been doing this a while; but just because it was, does not mean everybody did well or that everyone recognizes the opportunity. Truly these past two weeks have been a daytrader's dream, but not everyone is a daytrader.

But regardless of experience or type of investor/trader, it is important to remember that those tweets, messages and thoughts are a human connection. Many novice members and beginner traders who are on the StockTwits and Twitter streams are there to learn and find answers therefore comments that literally deride any other view or perhaps decision born out of a mistake may not be conducive to open discussion and learning.

There are people out there literally hurting, not only because of their own mistakes but perhaps because of mismanaged portfolios or misguided beliefs and the economy. They may be turning to the stream for ideas, they may be too reserved to ask questions. Therefore, helpful stories or comments may make a more positive impact and allow all to share a feeling for the possible rather than the impossible.

So, I'd like to list a few of my thoughts for consideration:

1. Although we rapidly throw about stock symbols, charts and figures, in the passion of a trade, we may sometimes forget that it all translates to real money: earnings, savings and often a lifetime of work.

2. Pointing out the obvious is really not helpful. Can you think of a solution? Write that instead.

3. Remember that without those who buy at the top, you would not be able to sell there, so be grateful for a liquid market. Buying at the top or selling at the bottom is really not as easy as it seems, but it's always remembered.

4. Yes, we all get angry and blame the world for what we did while cursing out ourselves, but does that have to be translated into hatred of a company or an officer of the company?

5. If you get an idea from someone else's message, acknowledge the person who brought it to you. Don't act if it was all yours alone. Discussions can be born out of sharing, not stealing.

6. If you learn something or, better yet, profit from a post take the time to tell the person, then when you need advice or help, they'll be more likely to respond to you. Remember it's a two way street. If everybody just takes the givers are none.

7. Careful about what you say or share. I am certain the way you talk on the stream is really the way you talk & think elsewhere, so disrespect is still disrespect no matter how anonymous. I am also sure most take it personally as well.

8. Lastly, most messages go by so fast, they're not read or even seen by most. Therefore, when you read something you like, share it by re-tweeting it, that is really the number one rule for sharing a view.



Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni



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