I am at times contradictory to other's point of view just because I tend to look for historical points that the markets retrace in more obscure places. So where others may follow the S&P 500 (SPX) I look for strength in indexes more specific. Nearly 3 years ago I switched from watching the S&P500 (SPX) to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) because in my view it was the leader. Late November of last year, I switched to the (NDX) Nasdaq 100 because it became in my view the new leader of the current markets.
My favorite way to look at a chart is what I've been calling as "Naked" which means that the chart has no indicators marked, only candlesticks. It is because I feel it is more clear, as ones eyes get trained, rather than opaqued by indicators. That does not mean that I reject indicators nor do I pretend to know it all, it just means that I follow my own thoughts before I check others. It is in this way that I can rely and trust my own "design" and more easily spot mistakes.
I post my charts to share the vision I have of the markets and my purpose in posting is achieved if it gets you involved in looking at another point of view. Whether you agree or disagree with the charts I hope it helps as another "tool" for your trades. Besides the charts posted on my site here below, you will find my charts on links posted in the left column under "Follow Me On".
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
The Daily Pick - NDX
©DayTrading with Anni 2012 All Rights Reserved
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
Saturday, March 10, 2012
A Weekend Note - The Delicate Balance
Sometimes I become so embroiled with picking stocks that I neglect another side of my life. I can't deny a feeling of disconnect. The market is riding high and the life in the USA no matter how much make up is put on it is pulling me down. A trepidation that has been building for some time in me is becoming more and more aware that what I've feared the most may be inevitable. This rally starting in 2009 is now seemingly going sideways and some say it will end at 15,000 and others that it will go down and can't hold without a pullback.
In "normal" times I would agree that a pullback is essential for Dow 15,000 or even to hold the 13,000 as I have been showing on YouTube. But please note that these are not "normal" times of any recent or past history of the USA. When you have a president that writes regulations at record levels, nothing will be normal every again in the sense that we, adults, have been used to. Add to it that the education of children in schools today is to adapt to the President's model, will only assure that the past "normal" will never have a chance to return. To which I must add my theory which is that in order to continue these new "normal" times the current office holder of the highest office of the world ( or so it seems) will have to be re-elected. Notice that I implied that his re-election is not a "may be", but a "must". In other words it has to be assured.
We are already witnessing the media slowly taking down the competition via much ridiculing of the debates, not to mention altering of facts by reporting dismal data as good or a "good sign" for recovery. Same results and reports a mere 5 years ago would have been deemed unacceptable by the same people, but what is not really discussed is that there is a "Hungry Hippo" in each of our households representing that the real battle is the monetary one.
Most prices today have inflated by 20% (food and energy) while houses have deflated by 20-40% in the past 5 years. So not only have household "wealth" been reduced by deflation of value in property (for those who own) but the cost of living has increased by about the same amount, reducing our real wealth overall. Which can only mean that the markets have inflated to match some of that difference at least. You know, buy less with more. As prices rise, inflation rises is perhaps new to a few, but it seems not to be a concern for those who hold stocks. Bond yields have been 0 to barely nothing, so markets have had to create room for desperate people to make something on their money.
For this President to be assured re-election will require the seeming continued "recovery" and therefore "Green at any cost" is the secret re-election slogan. With markets ending to the upside on almost a daily basis with seeming absorption of any bad news keeps the delusion of things going well and at the same time continuing the inflation to keep'em happy.
But paper money is paper money. It's paper if it's printed and it's paper until cashed from the markets and if/when that frenzy starts, the need to make it real can strip the market very fast as we witnessed back in March 10, 2000. That is the challenge for this administration and the real challenge of the Federal Reserve: The Hungry Hippo must not know that it's hungry and the masses must feel that they are gaining on this losing battle rather than losing their real wealth. So the Fed will keep printing and injecting via mandate to banks they lend to and the investors will keep buying because when the market direction is straight up, investors must invest.
At some point it will have to correct, but when is probably the trillion dollar question because just as the European Union must be kept together at all costs to keep hiding the real debt problem, the USA must keep seeming the most free and prosperous nation to the world for the same reason.
Keep it up another generation and most will not remember how it was and will accept whatever they will be told as the cause of their poverty midst their millions. Can it be done? I say yes, it can. Remember that the delusion was successfully executed by the Soviet Union for 75years and currently still held by many citizens in suppressed countries at a great human and development cost. I think current technology is already assisting in the delusion. Which only proves that choosing who you believe is just as important as what you believe because eventually you may not even have that choice.
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
The Daily Pick - DJIA DJT SPX NDX
©DayTrading with Anni 2012 All Rights Reserved
In "normal" times I would agree that a pullback is essential for Dow 15,000 or even to hold the 13,000 as I have been showing on YouTube. But please note that these are not "normal" times of any recent or past history of the USA. When you have a president that writes regulations at record levels, nothing will be normal every again in the sense that we, adults, have been used to. Add to it that the education of children in schools today is to adapt to the President's model, will only assure that the past "normal" will never have a chance to return. To which I must add my theory which is that in order to continue these new "normal" times the current office holder of the highest office of the world ( or so it seems) will have to be re-elected. Notice that I implied that his re-election is not a "may be", but a "must". In other words it has to be assured.
We are already witnessing the media slowly taking down the competition via much ridiculing of the debates, not to mention altering of facts by reporting dismal data as good or a "good sign" for recovery. Same results and reports a mere 5 years ago would have been deemed unacceptable by the same people, but what is not really discussed is that there is a "Hungry Hippo" in each of our households representing that the real battle is the monetary one.
Most prices today have inflated by 20% (food and energy) while houses have deflated by 20-40% in the past 5 years. So not only have household "wealth" been reduced by deflation of value in property (for those who own) but the cost of living has increased by about the same amount, reducing our real wealth overall. Which can only mean that the markets have inflated to match some of that difference at least. You know, buy less with more. As prices rise, inflation rises is perhaps new to a few, but it seems not to be a concern for those who hold stocks. Bond yields have been 0 to barely nothing, so markets have had to create room for desperate people to make something on their money.
For this President to be assured re-election will require the seeming continued "recovery" and therefore "Green at any cost" is the secret re-election slogan. With markets ending to the upside on almost a daily basis with seeming absorption of any bad news keeps the delusion of things going well and at the same time continuing the inflation to keep'em happy.
But paper money is paper money. It's paper if it's printed and it's paper until cashed from the markets and if/when that frenzy starts, the need to make it real can strip the market very fast as we witnessed back in March 10, 2000. That is the challenge for this administration and the real challenge of the Federal Reserve: The Hungry Hippo must not know that it's hungry and the masses must feel that they are gaining on this losing battle rather than losing their real wealth. So the Fed will keep printing and injecting via mandate to banks they lend to and the investors will keep buying because when the market direction is straight up, investors must invest.
At some point it will have to correct, but when is probably the trillion dollar question because just as the European Union must be kept together at all costs to keep hiding the real debt problem, the USA must keep seeming the most free and prosperous nation to the world for the same reason.
Keep it up another generation and most will not remember how it was and will accept whatever they will be told as the cause of their poverty midst their millions. Can it be done? I say yes, it can. Remember that the delusion was successfully executed by the Soviet Union for 75years and currently still held by many citizens in suppressed countries at a great human and development cost. I think current technology is already assisting in the delusion. Which only proves that choosing who you believe is just as important as what you believe because eventually you may not even have that choice.
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
The Daily Pick - DJIA DJT SPX NDX
©DayTrading with Anni 2012 All Rights Reserved
Friday, March 2, 2012
The Daily Note - The Don't, Won't, Can't of Trading
Have you noticed that whenever you resolve not to do something, you do it anyway? The duh moment comes after you realize that you've committed the same act once again. Why is it so difficult to let go of a non-thinking habit? I'm sure there are many answers if you take the time to dwell into yourself, but consider this one also: Your subconscious mind does not hear the "negative".
In other words if you say "I won't, don't, can't do this or that" your subconscious registers "I will, do, can this or that".
The first time I heard this theory I kept looking for ways to negate it. (Get the joke?) But more often I noticed that I did exactly what I don't, can't, won't, "wanna" do, because the negative statement basically reinforces the negative action rather than replacing it.
All too often traders will repeat to themselves what NOT TO DO rather than what TO DO. So, turn the statement into a positive which will reinforce a positive action and make it your mantra rather than keeping the negative mantra as your guide. Give it time to work also, it took many years for you to practice the negative, so it will take some time to turn the tables of your mind, but the good news is that it will take far less time as you see the positive results to your positive thoughts and actions.
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
The Daily Pick - $DJT NDX Outlook
©DayTrading with Anni 2012 All Rights Reserved
In other words if you say "I won't, don't, can't do this or that" your subconscious registers "I will, do, can this or that".
The first time I heard this theory I kept looking for ways to negate it. (Get the joke?) But more often I noticed that I did exactly what I don't, can't, won't, "wanna" do, because the negative statement basically reinforces the negative action rather than replacing it.
All too often traders will repeat to themselves what NOT TO DO rather than what TO DO. So, turn the statement into a positive which will reinforce a positive action and make it your mantra rather than keeping the negative mantra as your guide. Give it time to work also, it took many years for you to practice the negative, so it will take some time to turn the tables of your mind, but the good news is that it will take far less time as you see the positive results to your positive thoughts and actions.
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
The Daily Pick - $DJT NDX Outlook
©DayTrading with Anni 2012 All Rights Reserved
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