Life relates to trading as trading relates to life. I write about how life relates to trading and sharing about my likes on anything from Anthropology to Zoology in no particular order, and discussing how I thoroughly enjoy LIFE!
I don't generally do long term predictions. Many psychics agree that there are too many variables and we cannot deny freedom of choice by everyone who can effect the outcome. Like with life, it's easier to look back. So imagine my surprise about a prediction I wrote last year and, which, I forgot about until a reader congratulated me for it the other day.
There certainly were plenty of variables this past year, as in any year, in the $DJI yet I did a pretty good job about being able to pinpoint certain pivots and tops and bottoms here is the prediction written Jan 03.2010:
Short below 10400 to about 10350, breaking below 10320 to about 10270, 10200 then 10127 areas. Break down of 10000 we'll see 9900-9800 retest. Long above 10500 to retest 10550 breaking above to near 10600 after which 11000 will be possible with regular intervals. Moving higher on strong momentum the 11200, 11400 and 11800 can be revisited once again.
We are still working on the high, so far it is 11625
Low was 9614.32
Tops were : 10729.89, 11258.01, 10920.27, 10175.02, 10594.06, 10400.10, 11216.65 11591.13 high and last
Bottoms were: 9835.09, 9774.48, 9757.55, Low 9614.32, 9941.84 , 11023.5, 10942.98 last
Missed low by 185 missed high by 175 which means roughly 175 point shift lower on high/low would have nailed it.
So much for predictions, although I feel pretty good about this one, my first, and if I use some of my quirky trajectory plotting, we are still on track to 10800 but it does not guarantee that we won't see some lows again.
Hope you had a fantastic year as well, I'm looking to see more of you next year around here and on the dance floor!
Happy New Year and do the most Living you can!
An old song I heard not long ago about being too late and getting on home. Reminds me that it is the last two weeks of the year and it is rather too late to plan any adjustments prior to the close of year. It's best to have had it all execute by now. To be "home" on time it takes as much planning as getting there. So exits have to be honored as much as entries in any position.
If there is one recurring message in all posts that I read, consciously or unconsciously intended is that your rules need to be honored. Although I extend this thought in a different direction on my other blog, trading requires rules and today I wish to drive home the point that no trading method will work unless you learn to honor its rules. Try as you may to define it differently the truth is that freedom and life require rules and in order to gain your freedom from whatever you're seeking you need to follow the rules to get you there. Without it, you will remain the slave of those who wish to define your life be it your boss, or your lender.
You may wish to kick open a box or too on the way , but giving up on rules that have worked for others also has it's consequences; namely, you will have to invent a new method which is time consuming work and you may lose a lot of capital on the way. But if you so choose it, the rules are still to be defined and tested for validity, and you still have to follow them to succeed. So, in short, you cannot avoid rules in your life no matter how you wish to live.
The sooner you realize this simple fact, and discipline yourself to follow it, the faster you'll be on your road to your freedom.
So for your Christmas present, write up your rules:
1. Don't enter a trade without a plan and a vision
2. Set your stops and let them work
3. Profits, they are gifts of your work so take them and give thanks.
Fill in whatever you need to complete the rule plan for yourself. Don't make it long. Probably only 2 or 3 is all you'll need. Don't complicate it. Simple always works better.
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
and a Merry Christmas to all
Do you know how to take winners? I don't mean before they become winners but when they are winners. Many traders give back winnings. You may wonder why would they do that, or you may know what I am speaking about because you've been there and done that.
We all may look back on our trades to see where we should have taken profits, but many traders let opportunities fly by only to take a fraction of their potential wins just before they melt back to their entry price.
The problem may not be so troubling if it was as simple as taking profits at highs, but it's not because traders don't want to take profits at the highs , but BECAUSE they DO. You see when a price is rising, often traders think it will keep rising. It may and it may not, of course, as we all know, but in the heat the markets it all looks good from "here" until it reverses and then, traders think it will, of course, reverse again. Therefore, the slide back to entry.
OK then, what is the cure. Well, for one sticking to your plan is important. Know your target and goals and be sure to take your profits into the direction of the trade. But I can't help but think that most traders know that. What most traders don't know is the subtle effect of watching a price rise (or fall, if short) it's hypnotic effect and therefore the lulling into a secure feeling that "it", the trend, won't change.
So the best way to avoid such a hypnotic state is to 1., Set your stop and 1., set your target. Then, use the best alert system out there. Not one that sends you emails but one that will ring your bell and won't stop until you pay attention. By setting an alert for yourself, you can relax into knowing that you will be able to adjust your profit taking along the way as need be, without paying attention to each hypnotic tick. Then, once your target is reached, be sure to take at least part of your profits to the bank.
Finding a way to cash in your winnings is as important as setting your stops to avoid losses. It takes discipline to do both, but the reward is sweeter when you get better at reaping your winnings.
I thought I'd share my watch list with you today. Like all traders I too have a daily/weekly watchlist. What is unfortunate about them is that they tend to grow. As I add stocks that look interesting and that have potential for a move, soon the list grows to an impossible length unless it's managed daily.
The danger is that if we have too many on our list, we can lose ourselves in the watching and catch fewer trades because, unlike chasing a stock that is on the move, we tend to chase stocks for the move when the list becomes too long. Setting up alerts is one way of handling the signals but oft the stocks move at once so we are left with alarms going off and not knowing which one to attend first.
I suggest having several lists but to make sure that the possible players for the day get picked from those into a central list. It is a way of weeding and keeping your day manageable. So below is what I'm looking at for today. Hope it helps you to see a perspective of how and what some of us are looking for.
I don't know why we think, as parents, that we have something to do with our children's achievements when they become adults. It comes from perhaps the congratulations we get along the way while raising our children because whenever they achieve something growing up, we too get congratulated as job well done about instilling some good habit or behavior. Once they leave the nest, however, that right leaves with them and what they achieve is totally in their own hands therefore all congratulations and responsibility and pride belongs to them.
There is only one right parents retain and that is the right to boast. It's something we hang onto which is akin to giving encouragement that used to be expressed via a pat on the head, a "good job", a "way to go", a smile of approval or a congratulatory hug. So using that right once more, I boast:
No, I didn't go to Mars, in a way my son did, because he is a digital illustrator and he worked on the layout team of this Motion Picture. Perhaps though, the more fun part of the story is that since he was little he had to endure my love of illustrated films especially around holidays. Like a child, I watch them so it's especially fun that he worked on a film of a story by one of my top favorite author/illustrators: Berkeley Breathed of Bloom Country fame. Opus and Bill characters always bring a smile on my face and of course my favorite Christmas story ( well okay, one of) " A Wish for Wings That Work". If you have children or like me, like to bring the magic back into your life, watch his magic work on you with messages that will always be true.
So today instead of musical notes, spend a few minutes laughing and feeling good and be sure to see "Mars Needs Moms" too this Holiday Season.